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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I think this is more apt:

Ahahahahahaha!

Looks like the Cookie Monster has his shorts on, and the muppets are having their cores handed back to them...
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:roflmao:

It's looks like the post grad course at Hogwarts :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ahhhh.....

There is nothing like seeeeing red first thing in the morning. But according to our marvelous treasurer this is just a correction, so there is nothing to wory about, is there??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting day coming up, do we follow Europe i.e FTSE off 4%... the LME down significantly across the board.. or the U.S where the printing presses are running hot ..???
Cheers
.Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Watching the crowd behaviour is interesting.

Once stock appears great value then in come buyers.
Cautiously at first.
Stock gets to a point that even the most bearish see value.
This happened yesterday and will happen today.
The constant yet often very predictable "Crowd Behaviour" can be seen in Waves and cycles.

You can clearly see the difference between this move and the last at around 6000.

The pullback is longer deeper and more drawn out.
You'll find the "Bounce" will be shallower and not as well supported as before.
For those that can read the market its exciting times.
Volatility is king to short term Tape readers.
This sort of volatility is pretty rare.
Indexes,Stocks,Currencies all at once.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Watching the crowd behaviour is interesting.

For those that can read the market its exciting times.
Volatility is king to short term Tape readers.
This sort of volatility is pretty rare.
Indexes,Stocks,Currencies all at once.
Click to expand...

I have never had such a poor win/lose ratio as the last week. Yet I doubt I have ever made as much money. If you get on a ride the intraday ranges are so big one good one makes up for 10 bad (if you stick to your stops).
For some these are the best of times.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have to say, the US market looks like it had a huge reversal day too. Of course this low is likely to be retested, and how that pans will tell us a lot about the trend.

This sort of heavy downside testing can wash out the sellers (to an extent that reads clean out the smaller players and the not liquid unhedged leveraged players).

However, given the 7% move down in copper overnight, and the 2-3% move down in various oil futures around the world, this cannot auger well for the resource sector, having seen significant bearish drives in nickel and to some extent zinc over the past 6 months.

I wonder how much of this is a knee jerk reaction to the equity markets? The two tend to move in generally opposite cycles (commodities and equities), but not always.

For me, I’m focusing more on the weekly chart for the XAO, hence there are several scenarios to consider. These are basically that this move down might be THE low and see a failed retest that is not taken out later (higher low) and resumes the bull market (maybe as late as the end of the year), or this is the first leg of an ABC or 5 wave structure down, with more downside to come along the lines wavepicker has been indicating. The other alternative is some kind of basing/consolidation pattern with a lot of chop till it resolves (one plausible scenario is a final weak wave 5 of the bullish drive that either fails, or makes a marginal high or double top).

For me the jury is still out since I haven’t had the time to fully examine this to the level I need to. Hence I’m retaining a flexible posture to go either way depending on how the next few days pan out. I do have clear cycles running in the US and European markets, and for the XAO. The challenge for me now is to do the due diligence and construct a forecast based on the culmination of all I’m seeing.

Interestingly if you look at a lot of the resource stocks (BHP, OXR, ZFX), these all displayed a kind of reversal yesterday, finding support and some even moving into positive territory.

Given the pounding of the commodities (LME futures in particular), I wonder how this will effect these stocks over the next few days. I have to say the effect could mean further downside if these commodities do not recover soon.


Regards


Magdoran
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
However, given the 7% move down in copper overnight, and the 2-3% move down in various oil futures around the world, this cannot auger well for the resource sector, having seen significant bearish drives in nickel and to some extent zinc over the past 6 months.
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Copper has rebounded in early trade, up 10% now. once the market settles, the resources will bounce right up with it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

UPKA said:
Copper has rebounded in early trade, up 10% now. once the market settles, the resources will bounce right up with it.
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Which market? - I focus on the LME personally... Other markets do odd things, but I'd argue the LME is pretty good as the leader... others may differ...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO has had 5 changes in direction in the last 1.5 hours

opened up, went down, went up, went down, and now up again, all within a tight band.
now its only up 2.8 looks like today we will close just flat if people cant make up their minds. It looks like any resources losses will be offset by banking sector gains.

Is it safe to say the banking sector reached its turning point yesterday?
we will find out monday
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Because the DOW last night still fell in the red... We should just call all the markets around the world The Dow Jones...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

waz said:
The XAO has had 5 changes in direction in the last 1.5 hours

opened up, went down, went up, went down, and now up again, all within a tight band.
now its only up 2.8 looks like today we will close just flat if people cant make up their minds. It looks like any resources losses will be offset by banking sector gains.

Is it safe to say the banking sector reached its turning point yesterday?
we will find out monday
Click to expand...

Perhaps this suggests that the market is at exactly where it should be at the moment, taking a calming breather. There seems to be an armwrestle between bulls and bears to see who takes control. The bears have fear on their side to push them and the bulls have opportunity. All seems very ying/yang to me. I for one am comfortable with how this is playing out would hate to see a large push up or down in the next week as either would be destined to fail IMO :2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
Perhaps this suggests that the market is at exactly where it should be at the moment, taking a calming breather. There seems to be an armwrestle between bulls and bears to see who takes control. The bears have fear on their side to push them and the bulls have opportunity. All seems very ying/yang to me. I for one am comfortable with how this is playing out would hate to see a large push up or down in the next week as either would be destined to fail IMO :2twocents
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There are quite a few phrases that come to my mind to describe today's market action. Calming breather is not one of them!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
There are quite a few phrases that come to my mind to describe today's market action. Calming breather is not one of them!
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Yep, looks more like the first steps of a 1 year old. Up. Oops fell down again. Let's try this again, etc.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

rub92me said:
Yep, looks more like the first steps of a 1 year old. Up. Oops fell down again. Let's try this again, etc.
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For those who don't trade on the volatility, it's probably a better idea to just go on a fishing trip now, and come back after the market has made up its mind. :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
For those who don't trade on the volatility, it's probably a better idea to just go on a fishing trip now, and come back after the market has made up its mind. :)
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No way Andy.

The fish will still be there next week but the markets don`t often act like this.

Tryng to take in as much as possible, and cheers for all the informed commentary and analysis on this thread :D

Glued to the screen :cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Can't be bothered posting a chart but I wonder about the thoughts of experienced traders who do TA on the XAO. What I'm looking at on the 5min chart for today looks like a downwards sloping triangle. Baseline around 5650ish. Thinking it could go either way from here but if it breaks downwards initial target around 5500. Any thoughts?
 
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