XAO Technical Analysis

[Sean K]

There doesn't need to be a reason for the market to drop. The "reason" is needed just for the news media.

I agree somewhat. But; Depression, real estate crashes, 9-11, GFC, Covid, have been very good reasons. The next downleg might just be market psychology following the snails shell, or it might go up due to bad news.

 

[Smurf1976]

I agree somewhat. But; Depression, real estate crashes, 9-11, GFC, Covid, have been very good reasons.

If we look at the 9-11 event as an example, the obvious conclusion is that you'd be wise to keep well clear of really large and dominant buildings after a stock market top. Because stock market declines cause planes to crash into skyscrapers, not the reverse.

S&P500 topped almost 18 months before planes hit the World Trade Center and was already more than half way through the bear market, both in depth and duration, at that time. Nasdaq at that point was 60% the way through the duration of its bear and had already seen ~80% of the decline in terms of value.

Whether or not the stock market decline caused the terrorist attacks I won't speculate, but the market was already well and truly stuffed at that point. The market doesn't need a "trigger" to peak and roll over, though there'll always be one found in hindsight.

Focusing on the US market there since 9-11 was a US incident.

 

[Sean K]

If we look at the 9-11 event as an example, the obvious conclusion is that you'd be wise to keep well clear of really large and dominant buildings after a stock market top. Because stock market declines cause planes to crash into skyscrapers, not the reverse.

S&P500 topped almost 18 months before planes hit the World Trade Center and was already more than half way through the bear market, both in depth and duration, at that time. Nasdaq at that point was 60% the way through the duration of its bear and had already seen ~80% of the decline in terms of value.

Whether or not the stock market decline caused the terrorist attacks I won't speculate, but the market was already well and truly stuffed at that point. The market doesn't need a "trigger" to peak and roll over, though there'll always be one found in hindsight.

Focusing on the US market there since 9-11 was a US incident.

Interesting.

Did 9/11 happen after the Dot Com bubble/crash and just continued the sideways bearish mood until the planes hit?

Chicken and egg type stuff, maybe.

I think the chicken came first.

We're currently at a very serious geostrategic financial precipice. Wayne's four horsemen are circling.

I think the first thing to be solved is that the US will raise the debt ceiling kicking the can down the road.

But, I have no doubt China are going to invade Taiwan in the next couple of years which will be disastrous.

In the long run though, these events just represent opportunities. The market goes up in the long run. If you live long enough....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Interesting.

Did 9/11 happen after the Dot Com bubble/crash and just continued the sideways bearish mood until the planes hit?

Chicken and egg type stuff, maybe.

I think the chicken came first.

We're currently at a very serious geostrategic financial precipice. Wayne's four horsemen are circling.

I think the first thing to be solved is that the US will raise the debt ceiling kicking the can down the road.

But, I have no doubt China are going to invade Taiwan in the next couple of years which will be disastrous.

In the long run though, these events just represent opportunities. The market goes up in the long run. If you live long enough....


View attachment 157070

The trend is your friend.

Higher highs and higher lows = uptrend.

gg

 

[Sean K]

The trend is your friend.

Higher highs and higher lows = uptrend.

gg

Yes, I was born in 69, which is the left hand edge of that chart. My parents should have bought a basket of shares for me then as a 55th birthday present. Terrible lack of forethought.

 

[qldfrog]

Yes, I was born in 69, which is the left hand edge of that chart. My parents should have bought a basket of shares for me then as a 55th birthday present. Terrible lack of forethought.

Would always be interesting to compare with 305$ of gold then to roughly take into account the inflation and obviously take dividend on market index to compare.
A bit early at 3am ish to check but the results might be a little less spectacular..or just bonds all along....
I actually found it gets quite are to find long term values, past 20y, when trying to draw long term analysis...

 

[Sean K]

I didn't expect this for this year. I think I said sideways, but it's looking a bit more bullish at the moment. Economies are being extremely resilient. FANGS have bounced. Dead cat? I'm still half cash (less property) which I have been for the past 2 years which is good and bad. I'm a bear at heart, so I'm still conserving $ for when the World boils over. Maybe I need to stop reading UN reports...

My 7400 pluck for the EOY is looking in trouble.

 

[eskys]

China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.3 in July, up slightly from 49.0 in June, staying below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. The outcome also just beat a forecast of 49.2.

The trimmed mean or core Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge rose by 0.6% in July 2023, but the annual growth rate was steady at 5.1%.

Today's news at 1130hrs

 

[Sean K]

Here we are, back to pre-Covid levels and looking at hitting pre-GFC level soon, although that was clearly an abboration. Long term though, the market goes up.

 

[peter2]

The XAO has drifted down to the current support level (~7080).
IMO there's a high probability that it may go lower to the next support level at ~6600.

 

[Sean K]

The XAO has drifted down to the current support level (~7080).
IMO there's a high probability that it may go lower to the next support level at ~6600.

View attachment 164399

Looks like the next stop Pete.

 

[peter2]

Are we a bit more bullish now after another weekly outside bull candle?
Can this get back to the prior highs? I love November rallies.

 

[Sean K]

Are we a bit more bullish now after another weekly outside bull candle?
Can this get back to the prior highs? I love November rallies.

View attachment 165177

Good candle. Will probably add some cash to IOZ on Monday.

 

[DrBourse]

45years ago (1980) the plan was to abolish the XAO when they introduced the XJO.... That plan got derailed, so now we have Both...
Put the 2 Charts side by side and you will see they are almost Identical....
Analysts Don't use the XAO - I don't use the XAO, Harrold and his mob still use it.... No idea why....
But it suits the Analysts & Brokers of this world because they can take advantage of the small differences between the XAO and the XJO, and stay one step ahead of Harrold and his Mob....

 

[Sean K]

Quintuple top and it's heading back to 7400 and I'm taking home the bacon as master XAO predictor. Or, not.

 

[peter2]

Weekly XAO chart. Trading within two ranges. One over the past two years, the other, the past year.

Outlook for 2024: I anticipate that the XAO will remain in the current smaller range for most of 2024. It could go to 8000 but I'd be very wary if it does as I don't think the market fundamentals will support it at higher levels. I'll be a buyer at the bottom of this range. Buying the dips and selling near the high.

 

[Sean K]

A weekly close above here will be interesting. Wouldn't have thought we'd be here at the start of Nov 23. A Santa Rally, sure, but not pushing ATHs.

 

[divs4ever]

it's all those strong fundamentals doing it ( sarcasm )

 

[Logique2]

It's going in one direction Sean K. , @ Feb 2024
Appreciate your work on this thread..

 

[Sean K]

XAO having a real crack at ATHs over the past few weeks. Good for the likes of IOZ et al.