XAO Technical Analysis

[Gunnerguy]

Gunner,
Why would you be pretty fuxxked if market falls down to 5k or even less.
We are still in the high 6k.
My own 20c is that you should not put yourself in that position..so cash ,options, reverse indexes..you have the choice even now to make the "can not happen" liveable.
Do it for your own good.

So buying insurance, eg. BBOZ, buying puts at say 5,800, 5,500, 5,000. But this costs money, but yes, is insurance, but can cost a lot with the size of my portfolio.
I’ll be fine for a year or so if we’re at 7,000 by June 2023, but I also think that my 14%+ annual for 25 years is going to suffer.
When I say ‘fu$$ed’ what I mean is there May be no annual gains from the last high for ... 18 months maybe.
Gunnerguy

 

[divs4ever]

i was half expecting a 'dead cat bounce ' today ,
but watching the US overnight maybe i have mistimed that idea

 

[qldfrog]

So buying insurance, eg. BBOZ, buying puts at say 5,800, 5,500, 5,000. But this costs money, but yes, is insurance, but can cost a lot with the size of my portfolio.
I’ll be fine for a year or so if we’re at 7,000 by June 2023, but I also think that my 14%+ annual for 25 years is going to suffer.
When I say ‘fu$$ed’ what I mean is there May be no annual gains from the last high for ... 18 months maybe.
Gunnerguy

You will learn what a bear market is,not really fuxxked ?
Was worried you were geared etc and lose your home.
Welcome to the world many European or Japanese people have been living in for a few decades

 

[MrChow]

Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?

I think that is what 6500 is providing us about a 50/50 chance of recession.

 

[divs4ever]

Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?

i can see plenty of logical reasons the 5000 range will be tested , but i have also seen some of the most outrageous and illogical policy moves , that i could imagine

i picked 5xxx somewhere else on this forum ... but FIRST what about 8000 on some totally bogus news that is taken as gospel by the MSM ( and realism bites later )

 

[Sean K]

Which is more likely to be hit first 5000 or 8000?

I think that is what 6500 is providing us about a 50/50 chance of recession.

I think the US Fed will stop interest rate rises and propose cuts before we reach 5000 in their market terms and the can will be kicked down the road a bit further.

 

[qldfrog]

I think the US Fed will stop interest rate rises and propose cuts before we reach 5000 in their market terms and the can will be kicked down the road a bit further.

fully agree with the idea just not sure if their trigger will be 5000 or above/below

 

[Gunnerguy]

fully agree with the idea just not sure if their trigger will be 5000 or above/below

I sold a spread at 5200/5000 about a week ago. I really don’t think it will be challenged. If We go below 6,000 I’ll sell loads of calls at 7400.

 

[Sean K]

If you think this 10 year channel has any merit and will be maintained, it seems good buying around these levels for long term investors. Unless the game has changed of course. Could always do a Covid plunge on another black swan too I guess.

 

[KevinBB]

If you think this 10 year channel has any merit and will be maintained, it seems good buying around these levels for long term investors. Unless the game has changed of course. Could always do a Covid plunge on another black swan too I guess.

Although it might be a while before the 50dma gets close enough to the bottom of the channel so that trade risk is reduced to a minuscule level.

KH

 

[Sean K]

Although it might be a while before the 50dma gets close enough to the bottom of the channel so that trade risk is reduced to a minuscule level.

KH

50dma getting closer. I was expecting another leg down here, but seems to be consolidating well this month and taken in todays US inflation figures in it's stride. Perhaps all the bad news is factored in. Could we have seen a bottom at 6600... ?

 

[KevinBB]

I was expecting another leg down

The next leg down cometh
KH

 

[Greynomad99]

The XAO has made a pattern with a break above resistance which suggests we could be moving up to 7,200.

 

[Sean K]

The XAO has made a pattern with a break above resistance which suggests we could be moving up to 7,200.

View attachment 144326

Agree. And 7200 is going to be hard to crack on the way back up.

 

[Sean K]

Approaching 7200 @Greynomad99, will be interesting to see how she reacts. Gone through 50dma @KevinBB

 

[KevinBB]

I topped up with a lot of stuff on 17 and 30 June, so just enjoying the break higher for the moment.

Goodness knows what has got into this (AU) market, also the US market. Facing 7+% inflation, with interest rates likely to be much higher than they are at the moment, its not a market where I really want to be.

KH

 

[Sean K]

I topped up with a lot of stuff on 17 and 30 June, so just enjoying the break higher for the moment.

Goodness knows what has got into this (AU) market, also the US market. Facing 7+% inflation, with interest rates likely to be much higher than they are at the moment, its not a market where I really want to be.

KH

The US market was very interesting. Can only assume the 'bad' news was factored in and it wasn't worse than bad, so it was good. Up is down, right is left. Might be just part of the dead cat too.

 

[Greynomad99]

Approaching 7200 @Greynomad99, will be interesting to see how she reacts. Gone through 50dma @KevinBB

It'll be tough to break 7,200 and stay above it. I gather the US and Europe have companies worth $9.4 trillion worth profit reporting today - whether that sees good news or bad news might be a deciding factor on short term direction.

 

[Sean K]

It'll be tough to break 7,200 and stay above it. I gather the US and Europe have companies worth $9.4 trillion worth profit reporting today - whether that sees good news or bad news might be a deciding factor on short term direction.

Pretty much touched 7200 and retreated. I thought there'd be more support at this level on the way down but was smashed. I guess it's stairways up and elevator down, so expect a decent pause here.

 

[Greynomad99]

Pretty much touched 7200 and retreated. I thought there'd be more support at this level on the way down but was smashed. I guess it's stairways up and elevator down, so expect a decent pause here.

Another try to break above 7200 by the XAO today. I'm expecting after a run of good days the US will retreat tonight and we'll follow tomorrow - leaving 7,200 unbreached (for now). Still a lot of volatility in the market - PNV, IMU etc