XAO Technical Analysis

[Sean K]

Another try to break above 7200 by the XAO today. I'm expecting after a run of good days the US will retreat tonight and we'll follow tomorrow - leaving 7,200 unbreached (for now). Still a lot of volatility in the market - PNV, IMU etc

Was held up around 7200 for a few days but seems to have pushed through. It's been a pretty hard run since mid June (potential) bottom. I'd like to see 7200 ish zone tested as support now to confirm we had a bottom in.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like 7500ish the next pause.

 

[martyjames]

XAO 200MA around 7430. My guess it will spike through it and then pull back

 

[Sean K]

I thought once we got through the 7200 zone which was also around the 50% Fib line that we were going to the 61% Fib line and perhaps the 50%/7200 area would be downward support. Might be the case, but not feeling confident in that at all.

 

[Sean K]

Tanked through 7200, a little bit of support around 6900, but otherwise, eeeek. (unless you've got your shorts on or cashed up)

 

[KevinBB]

@Sean K eeeek is too mild a term. It should be eeeeeeeeeek! with 3 or 4 exclamation marks, at least.

Its a long way down to the next support level.

KH

 

[Sean K]

My crystal ball is dreaming up an inverse H&S set up here. But, he might be dreamin...

 

[Sean K]

My crystal ball is dreaming up an inverse H&S set up here. But, he might be dreamin...

View attachment 146588

That inverse H&S went straight to the pool room.

The 7200 region is adding up to some serious trouble, one way or the other.

It's my pick for the end of year XAO point, so I might get something right this year...

 

[Sean K]

Smashed through 7200. Bear trap?

 

[BoNeZ]

Smashed through 7200. Bear trap?

short squeeze

 

[Sean K]

I've changed the 7200 ish red resistance line into a blue support line for now. Also through the 200dsma which looks pretty positive. Hopefully the 7200 area is tested and the XAO hangs around this level to New Years so I can hold up the XAO yearly prediction trophy. Going to pick up a wooden spoon for just about everything else.

 

[divs4ever]

taking a breather , currently ( slightly negative )

has the rally run out of puff , or just waiting for buyer support ( to move higher ) ??

feels too early for a Santa rally to me , but i have been wrong before

 

[brerwallabi]

I

taking a breather , currently ( slightly negative )

has the rally run out of puff , or just waiting for buyer support ( to move higher ) ??

feels too early for a Santa rally to me , but i have been wrong before

Its definitely too early for a Santa rally a good six weeks away, have a feeling we might hit 7500 before some news knocks it down again

 

[Smurf1976]

Its definitely too early for a Santa rally a good six weeks away

I hate to be "that guy" but six weeks from today it will be Boxing Day.

There are 29 ASX trading days left before Christmas 2022.

If we're going to have a Santa rally then there's not a huge amount of time for it to occur.

 

[divs4ever]

I hate to be "that guy" but six weeks from today it will be Boxing Day.

There are 29 ASX trading days left before Christmas 2022.

If we're going to have a Santa rally then there's not a huge amount of time for it to occur.

Boxing Day to mid January has seemed like Xmas to me in the last 11 years of investing ( but remember i normally buy small parcels )

 

[Logique2]

Not the worst now, Dec 2022:

 

[Sean K]

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 156154

This H&S structure is still in play. Target about 6600. ?

Not sure what would push it back down to that level. US default? Chinese invasion? Nuclear accident in Ukraine? Coldplay break up?

Or, maybe this boring sideways move continues for another 2 years.

 

[Country Lad]

This H&S structure is still in play. Target about 6600. ?

Which is about where the last H&S ended up.

 

[Smurf1976]

Not sure what would push it back down to that level. US default? Chinese invasion? Nuclear accident in Ukraine? Coldplay break up?

There doesn't need to be a reason for the market to drop. The "reason" is needed just for the news media.