XAO Technical Analysis

[IFocus]

@IFocus

It's so disappointing when you use the best tools available and one still can't draw a conclusion as to the most likely outcome...perhaps another couple of glasses will help!

Cheers,
Rob

Suspect it points to a user problem rather than the tool...........

 

[IFocus]

markets are built to make a monkey of us all

Prediction is down.

Boom, just call me "Cheater"

Trend is up.......

 

[notting]

I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?

 

[Porper]

I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?

View attachment 96648

It is generally accepted that wave 4 cannot enter the price territory of wave 1 which it does here. Some say it can't close below the wave 1 high. Either way this has transpired so it's not a valid count.

 

[Struzball]

I couldn't identify and Elliot wave if my name was Elliot and I was waving but is this one?

For what it's worth, if you believe in Elliot wave theory, this one fits the rules, as I understand them.
We've had a massive run up since December 2018, and these last few days has been the first sign of faltering. Seems to be just an overdue pullback before resuming its run up to something like 7400. I'll be looking for a top then. Could take years to peak.

Still a bit more to go for the pullback too, in my opinion.

 

[notting]

Thanks porper

 

[Knobby22]

Looks like the shorters are cashing out.

 

[Logique]

Indeed, looks a bit of a squeeze at this point

 

[IFocus]

XAO has formed a minor lower low and a lower high, should it follow the US market on Mondays open, but then who knows what tweets will be coming forward between now and then.

Expecting (probability) next week to breach this current move down lows, question remains will this be the final thrust down or the beginning of the seasonal weakness that often hits September-ish

A comment about short covering while I expected some their dosen't seem to be the volume that should be showing looks to me a lot of the short positions are holding firm.

 

[Logique]

XAO is looking to consolidate, and volatility is easing off after a sharp spike:

 

[Cam019]

Here's my thoughts - ascending channel into an ascending triangle. Resistance approximately between 6,958 - 7,000. This combined with my thoughts in another thread regarding the ever increasing popularity of index investing and historically low returns on cash and bonds... it stuns me to think that the XAO won't push forward with more bullish price action above 7,000 in 2020. In saying that, stranger things have happened, so watch for a definitive break of that lower trend line for a change in sentiment.

 

[Logique]

Thanks for the post Cam.

To all, talk is cheap. Let's see your predictions on the XAO annual 2020 prediction thread: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/yearly-xao-prediction-thread.34455/page-6

Where btw, the highest bidder won in 2019!

 

[Logique]

Just copying this over from the Prediction thread

 

[Logique]

6 March - the Australian Toilet Paper Index (ATPI) (my invention) says still too much fear in the market. Sideline for me, watch some footy.
I must stress this is just my own opinion, the likes of poster Tech/a have better credentials to make such calls.

 

[IFocus]

While the knuckles turn white time to have a look at the chart on the weekly, you can see the GFC to the left note the impulsive moves down but nothing like we are having now so far.

But we are still in the up trend just.

So the question is will there be consolidation and bounce or follow through and continue down.

Markets hate uncertainty and no one really has a handle on where the corona virus will take us and how it will really affect the economies world wide thats before any other black swan appears as a result of the disruption.

While uncertainty remains then so the down side risk remains IMHO.

 

[sptrawler]

Good post Ifocus, things were certainly looking good, as you say it is a bit of a one each way sort of time.
One thing for sure though is, once the uncertainty has gone, usually the opportunity has also.

 

[Cam019]

Just keeping it simple. If the XAO cannot hold 4,600, don't be surprised if we see 3100 - 3450.

 

[Porper]

Same scenario possible from an Elliott Wave perspective too.

 

[satanoperca]

The is not doubt we will test the lows of the GFC.

 

[Boggo]

In reality we are kidding ourselves if we think that extreme situations are going to comply with any sort of technical rules or expectations.

As a trader/investor with a technical approach I can't help but look for patterns an behaviour and consequently I am going to contradict myself and and post a chart that I find interesting from a Fibonacci retracement perspective.
Yes, it is picking points and making bits fit together but that is a technical approach that I make no apologies for as I can't switch off that approach even in the current conditions.

(click to expand)