XAO Technical Analysis

[Wysiwyg]

The pros had some stock to sell at the run high so it took a while coming after the fastest and most point run up for many years.

 

[gartley]

Testing the upper trendline in what appears to be a wedge of sorts. What now?
A lot will depend if fakery to prop up the US indexes continues by the trading desk at the US Federal Reserve

 

[notting]

Ding a Ling a Ling

 

[gartley]

Got a sell signal on the SPX over a week ago on the weekly and daily timeframes in the cycles system I use for the stock indices. Time will tell if it's valid or not, but have been short that index since then. So far no sells generated on the Aussie index although weekly Vix Fix has turned down, I suspect because of the election interruption. Would not be surprised to get one soon and todays gains erased in the weeks ahead.

 

[gartley]

Not much has been said about the following long term broadening pattern in the SPX. Was expecting it to touch the upper trendline at about 3000. Not sure that will happen, US index futures under the pump tonight and it looks like volatility is not going away any time soon.

 

[gartley]

Still no weekly sell signal generated this week in the All Ords within the cycles system I use, but should think one will come by next week if market continues lower.

In the meantime the SPX contiued bearishly as was suggested by the weekly sell mentioned in the earlier post. This thing is just getting started, and last night it reached a head and shoulders (that had formed from mid May) measured move target.
However a larger one appears to have formed from mid March to now and suggests a move down to 2650 which is well supported by the cycles analysis attached

 

[gartley]

Further to last post, looks like US markets ready make some sort of capitulation move down here or EW wave 3 of 3 of 3. XAO should finally give a sell signal today off my weekly system.
So much for the post election rally hoohah

 

[IFocus]

Further to last post, looks like US markets ready make some sort of capitulation move down here or EW wave 3 of 3 of 3. XAO should finally give a sell signal today off my weekly system.
So much for the post election rally hoohah

Been watching other markets roll over (Asia / US) and the XAO not but looking like topping out given the length of run up but also aware markets can and do over extend long pass expectations as the election rally has proven.

Also looking through the ASX market plenty of break out opportunities still presenting but a number of shorts also starting to show up but I still have the gut, star signs, black arts contrary feeling there remains some strength.

Having said that I cannot help but keep second guessing this is all about catching those that have had some success from the run up from Xmas such is the way with Mr Market.


Looking at the monthly below gives a picture of the trajectory and length of the latest run up with no down months so really due for a breather not to say we will get it.



Thought I would throw up the XAO daily with the S&P 500 to show how we haven't followed through following the US.

Note the last bar on the XAO showing a little defiance for a Friday (only one bar) however the US was down Friday.

 

[gartley]

Expecting downtrend to presist in the weeks ahead as cycles system is on the verge of generating a weekly sell as VF was only just turned with plenty of room to move down which should see a complete crossover on the Cycle differential.

 

[gartley]

Continuing with previous post. Weekly sell generartion does not exactly merit taking a short position immediately as all it does is verify a that the next 1 to 5 weekly bars should be down. At this juncture expecting an upward corrective rally to start and looking for approx 6400. When a sell continuation is triggered on the daily cycles therafter will be the cue to look at taking short postions.

 

[IFocus]

Was today a blow off high?

Today sitting on a lot of open profit feeling like a legend......... markets are always contrary to what I ......feel.....or am I over thinking this?

Whats with the banks?

A couple of weeks ago I was under water now a gun investor......

 

[Zaxon]

Was today a blow off high?

Today's high was caused by Donald Trump creating a trade war with Mexico, and then telling everyone he's solved it. Like magic! That's would be most people's explanation for the price rise over the last couple of days (of which we sadly missed one, due to our Queen).

As I speak, the S&P is up overnight, so if that holds, would could get a good day tomorrow.

 

[Logique]

IF: I think the Aussie banks are making up for lost time. I little doubt there was investor money on the sidelines, waiting for the outcome on dividend franking. Unlikely to be the only factor in recent sp strength, but a partial explanation.
Plenty of momentum in the wider All Ords, and possibility of a little more yet, see the upper trend line in green:

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

banks have been going well but once again (APRA today) they are hit with regulation

yet the likes of Prospa, afterpay, zippay all boom because of no regulation, and people using them thinks it great

it will drive the index down again

 

[IFocus]

Mean while back at the ranch the Indians are bunching up.

A couple of tight range days (almost a pair of tweezers ) with solid volume surely mean a top of this run up.......of course until it isn't markets are built to make a monkey of us all if only I was a mechanical trader.

Yesterday was a slightly religious day with a few candle crosses around still plenty of boom going on price wise through the market.

I will wait at this point until I see a direction I can trade.

Prediction is down.....maybe

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Could be a fair drop tomorrow I reckon. Speccies looking very uninspiring.

Or it could be just me. I will drink coffee then have another look. BRB.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Coffee didn't help.

Price testing above a long term trendline. Monthly All Ords.

 

[IFocus]

So is this a top or setup for a breakout?

So who is buying and who is selling?

Red wine isn't helping either Gingotts

 

[PZ99]

This suggests June is historically bad and July is historically good.

Using the STW etf for example...



https://www.shortman.com.au/seasonality?q=stw

 

[rnr]

Red wine isn't helping either Gingotts

View attachment 95544

@IFocus

It's so disappointing when you use the best tools available and one still can't draw a conclusion as to the most likely outcome...perhaps another couple of glasses will help!

Cheers,
Rob