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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Tysonboss1 said:
Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?

not that I take much part in either thread, but it has always seemed weird to me that the T/A thread be simply labeled "analysis" and the fundamental one labeled "Banter"
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This might actually help people to understand just what the hell is supposed to be going on in these threads :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
For give a troglodyte for butting in on this thread, but why bother analysing the XOA on technical factors at this point?
Isn't the simple equation: If America comes to agreement on debt, XAO up.
If America doesn't, XAO down.
I believe technicals to be irrelevant at this point.

*Awaits the wrath* :)
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Part of my current thinking agrees with you but another part thinks that the current debacle between the U.S democrats and republicans, about how their debt ceiling should be raised, has only served to highlight to the rest of the world that their risk of default is higher than that of Italy and spain and will have far reaching devastion to global markets.

xao 2011-07-29.png

Tha xao has been trending down for since April and you could easily determine upper and lower channel lines for that period. The recent activity suggests that the market is trying to break out of the channel (upwards) but it is struggling and at best is holding at the present level going sideways. If the U.S. debacle continues our xao will fall until their is enough sentiment to pull the bargain hunters in and start an upward reversal.

The MACD suggest we are going to gap down further:

xao 2011-07-29 macd.png

and the RSI suggests the market is oversold.

xao 2011-07-29 RSI.png
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dark1975 said:
:p:

back to the xao analysis, Tech/a i hope to see more of your e/w & graph analysis and thoughts on the xao in the next coming weeks if possible,Always good to see your analysis.

p.s : tech/a wtb more posts from u mate , ur seem to have the best insight and info as a trader on the asf site.Keep up the great work mate.
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Thanks

Time is the enemy.
Often I see comments which are supported or invalidated by T/A.
Just havent the time to spare on many occasions.
But will where I can.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Tysonboss1 said:
Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?
Click to expand...

Fair enough suggestion. I have gone ahead and renamed the thread for the sake of clarity.

For those who wish to discuss the influence of other factors on the XAO, there's the XAO Banter Thread, which is intended to much more informal and conversational.

For those interested in EW, there's the Elliott Wave and the XAO thread.

There's also another old thread from 2005 called XAO Analysis Prediction that someone might like to make use of.
 
please straighten me out but I seem to find that the XJO is at 4332
and the XAO is at 4408. I guess they do move similarly.

Where I see the significant levels at 4350 and then 4220 approx. for the all ord's.
I will leave the real technical analysis to others, (I appreciate the insight too, thanks).

cheers.
 
tech/a said:
Latest analysis

CLICK TO ENLARGE
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So much for my prediction that we would see support and a reversal at around 4,500.

The first wave down was from around 5064 to 4512, which is a difference of 552. If we assume the second wave down is the same length as the first then we can expect the market to retrace around 550 points from the recent high of 4716 (08/07/11) which would be 4216 - say somewhere around 4200.
 
T/H
Goodstuff.
The market will take a breather
The longer it goes and the higher it rises the LESS likely
The analysis will play out.
Short sharp shallow corrections mean quicker and deeper falls or rises.
 
Short correction and a very deep fall.
A smashing of the 4180 support will see much lower
target in the mid 3000s
More analysis tonight.
 
Here is an update of some long term analysis originally from July 2009. Link to some of the original analysis below as well.

While it hasn't played out exactly, it isn't too bad considering it was made 2 years ago. We never saw a retest of that 3700 level like I thought we would, it only got to around 4200 and the rallies were stronger then I anticipated so obviously there was a lot more strength then I thought there would be. This strength also put my dates out by a few months on some occasions but the dates of the general highs & lows were pretty close to what was originally anticipated.

The retest of 3700 and maybe even 3100 in 2011/12 is now obviously a realistic scenario but I would expect 4200 to provide some sort of support.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=495644#post495644
 

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tech/a said:
Short correction and a very deep fall.
A smashing of the 4180 support will see much lower
target in the mid 3000s
More analysis tonight.
Click to expand...

Agree tech/a, not a good look at the moment.

(click to expand)
 

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Here's my non-EW take on the XAO currently looking at the weekly.

Not looking good at all - we had a back-test early last month of the short-term trend support from early 2010 and its now resistance IMO.

Looking for circa 4000 on the XAO short term. Yes, thats lower than 4100.

XAO.png
 
Support lines (horizontal) at:

4065
3950
3750
3515

The big bounce days will not happen, IMO. There will be flat days, and days of +30, but nothing to indicate a reversal to uptrend for a while.

The 'new economy' won't be kicking into gear for a long time yet.
 
If the xao doesnt hold 4050 (a previous resistance level) then the next support level is arround 3800. After last weeks fall a further 250 is not impossible (particularly now the downgrade has been fornalised).

If we don't hold 3800, then 3350 would be on the cards. The only difference this time down the slippery slope is our economy is in better shape than last time and the financial sector is not as badly exposed to potential credit squeezes as they were last time. Personally I will be surprised if we go below 3800.

[For some reason I can't upload the chart. Keeps telling me the file is not an acceptable image file although it is a .png format, exactly the same as I have always uploaded?]
 
Posted this on Elliot thread

WEEKLY
CLICK TO EXPAND

The dates shown are in the Fib zones shown
but as you can see they are generally not respected.

xjo 18.gif
 
Very interesting market atm, Todays low at 4015 equates to a 20% fall from the high on the 15/04 5025.

With a bear market roughly defined as a 20% fall over 2 months or more, Are we in a bear market?

Interesting to hear peoples thoughts?
 
This rally is determined to close the opening gap down is about all I can see at the moment. USA opens tonight and their markets are over 1.5% down at the mo.
 
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