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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

It's my gut feeling that the bottom of the recent correction was in late June, technically 4512.5 @ close on 20/06/2011.

I've been buying. I just hope that the spring has been recoiled enough to get us over 5000 on the next leg up; and of course, that this is just not a speed bump on the way further down!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
If it already hasn't.
The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
How hard is that?
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Was this EW?

tech/a said:
I think most of your problem will be overcome when you accept that for many of us Elliot is an adjunct to our analysis not the "why " we take a trade in it's own right.
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I totally accept that Tech. Like any TA, it is another tool to aid in decision making. No one trades with a single 'tool'.

Can you provide a link to a thread that has documented EW supported trades? I'm not going to be diverted to another forum.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

And Tech, since I started this thread about 5 years ago, I do need to remind myself of what I was thinking at the time.

The first post:

kennas said:
Just thought I'd start a thread just on analysing the XAO. Anyone who has a diffent version of where they think the All Ords might be heading please feel free to post an alternate, or different perspective.

This might be an opportnity for any other T/As to put their particular analysis on where the XAO is going. Fib? Gann? EW? Would like to see any of that overlayed on my simple charting.
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I may have lost the focus of the original purpose of this thread.

Maybe it's not trading, just 'where it's heading', to aid in decision making.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ginar said:
The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people
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Agreed. Who wants to put up the latest?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ginar said:
The heading on this thread reads XAO Analysis . cant say ive actually seen a lot of that in recent times , my attraction to this thread is certainly waning . keep it on the black stuff people
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Agree Ginar. There's an XAO Banter thread for those with comments. Many thanks to you and others for the analysis on this thread. BTW, just looked at the futures for overnight markets - not so great. Cheers L.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ok so it's the DJIA, but kind of relevant at the minute. Some possibility of a daily double top. If that's the worst that happens I'll take it. On the whole I think markets would rather rally, but these roosters in Congress will play at brinkmanship.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

since april highs the cash 200 has made a series of lower highs and lower lows on daily chart . reference high on daily is 4626 with the reference low 4430 . 4450 has been the key level on a close basis and has offered stout support for over a month now , still had a lower high in that time so the bias is still ever so slightly bearish but we seem to be coming to a point where bias change has some hope . the high cpi data today put a rocket into the aud which in turn puts pressure on GDP . with last 1/4 aud has been above 1.05 mostly , giving us a fair chance of another negative GDP result . rate cuts are back of the table again so property price pressure remains . no wonder our market has underperformed most in the world this year
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
Ok so it's the DJIA, but kind of relevant at the minute. Some possibility of a daily double top. If that's the worst that happens I'll take it. On the whole I think markets would rather rally, but these roosters in Congress will play at brinkmanship.
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On the possible double top scenario, it seems many major indicies have come of/into resistance with very light volume. XJO has been consolidating the last two months more or less, looking at a weekly chart may suggest further downside to the 4,200 mark still?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kryzz said:
On the possible double top scenario, it seems many major indicies have come of/into resistance with very light volume. XJO has been consolidating the last two months more or less, looking at a weekly chart may suggest further downside to the 4,200 mark still?
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Agree.

It will go up or down, at least we know the trading range atm.

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry been away a while
Here is my latest take.

XJOJULY.gif

We could also see a bottom again as strong support has to be broken for the new wave 5 targets to be achieved.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Sorry been away a while
Here is my latest take.

We could also see a bottom again as strong support has to be broken for the new wave 5 targets to be achieved.
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No probs about the wait T/A, buy why not give me some freakin figures - you damn fence sitter. Put your figures out there.

When will it bottom out. C'mon all you experts what do you think?

My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august and it's going to bottom out around 4,000
 
Re: XAO Analysis

For give a troglodyte for butting in on this thread, but why bother analysing the XOA on technical factors at this point?
Isn't the simple equation: If America comes to agreement on debt, XAO up.
If America doesn't, XAO down.
I believe technicals to be irrelevant at this point.

*Awaits the wrath* :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LifeChoices said:
No probs about the wait T/A, buy why not give me some freakin figures - you damn fence sitter. Put your figures out there.

When will it bottom out. C'mon all you experts what do you think?

My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august and it's going to bottom out around 4,000
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If you bothered to read the chart above youll find the next two lower targets clearly shown.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LifeChoices said:
My guess is we are going to get a big hit in mid august and it's going to bottom out around 4,000
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That's a bold statement for someone who can't read a basic chart.

I seem to remember Joe suggesting that such statements should be supported by a valid reason such as a chart etc.

Looking forward to your incisive and perspicacious justification of said prediction.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
That's a bold statement for someone who can't read a basic chart.

I seem to remember Joe suggesting that such statements should be supported by a valid reason such as a chart etc.

Looking forward to your incisive and perspicacious justification of said prediction.
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How is a chart or some three syllable words going to tell the rest of us what may be coming next in this market?

My reason for saying 4,000 is my gut feeling which is just as valid as your stupid triangles.

So come on experts and those of you hiding behind your thesaurus - pick the bottom - pick a number: there's no right or wrong answer.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

:p:
tech/a said:
Sorry been away a while
Here is my latest take.

XJOJULY.gif

We could also see a bottom again as strong support has to be broken for the new wave 5 targets to be achieved.
Click to expand...

back to the xao analysis, Tech/a i hope to see more of your e/w & graph analysis and thoughts on the xao in the next coming weeks if possible,Always good to see your analysis.

p.s : tech/a wtb more posts from u mate , ur seem to have the best insight and info as a trader on the asf site.Keep up the great work mate.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I didn't realize this thread has gotten so off topic, so I have gone ahead and cleaned it up a bit.

A reminder: This thread is for technical analysis of the XAO and any discussion of that analysis. All discussion of other influences on the XAO, such as local/global economic factors, should be posted in the XAO Banter Thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461

Lets keep this thread on topic and focussed.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Joe Blow said:
I didn't realize this thread has gotten so off topic, so I have gone ahead and cleaned it up a bit.

A reminder: This thread is for technical analysis of the XAO and any discussion of that analysis. All discussion of other influences on the XAO, such as local/global economic factors, should be posted in the XAO Banter Thread, which can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461

Lets keep this thread on topic and focussed.
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Why not call the thread "XAO Technical analysis" if it is to be TA based?

not that I take much part in either thread, but it has always seemed weird to me that the T/A thread be simply labeled "analysis" and the fundamental one labeled "Banter"
 
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