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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
I meant 4716, today's close.
Actually this is ending here. Looking strong to at least 4731, next resistance (double bottom breakout target).
I meant 4716, today's close.
Actually this is ending here. Looking strong to at least 4731, next resistance (double bottom breakout target).
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Re: XAO Analysis
Isn't isn't ending here.
Isn't isn't ending here.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Nothing on the charts really stands out except this possibility of forming.
Nothing on the charts really stands out except this possibility of forming.
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Re: XAO Analysis
It did come up to where W.4 was be expected to go as indicated here...
XAO chart 30th June
Sub 4400 would probably be the extreme of the three target areas below on the likely next leg down, not by any means impossible though.
(click to expand)
It did come up to where W.4 was be expected to go as indicated here...
XAO chart 30th June
Sub 4400 would probably be the extreme of the three target areas below on the likely next leg down, not by any means impossible though.
(click to expand)
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Re: XAO Analysis
crazy times , carbon tax , the spectre of another quarter of negative GDP (read reccession ) , a govt on the verge of collapse ( no surprise to see election by years end ) , high aud affecting trade revenues . with all this hanging over the market no real surprises to see the market resisting any attempts to rally . seems australias economic strength is waning . poor retail , property on the slide . hard to stay positive isnt it ?? all i can say is just trade the chart and structure as it comes . for the nimble out there its still not that hard to turn a dollar just dont fall in love with a position , be dynamic and roll with the punches ............... good luck
crazy times , carbon tax , the spectre of another quarter of negative GDP (read reccession ) , a govt on the verge of collapse ( no surprise to see election by years end ) , high aud affecting trade revenues . with all this hanging over the market no real surprises to see the market resisting any attempts to rally . seems australias economic strength is waning . poor retail , property on the slide . hard to stay positive isnt it ?? all i can say is just trade the chart and structure as it comes . for the nimble out there its still not that hard to turn a dollar just dont fall in love with a position , be dynamic and roll with the punches ............... good luck
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Re: XAO Analysis
Boggo, I'm interested to understand the wave count within wave 3 in your chart. Do you have a count for the wave structure for 3?
Boggo, I'm interested to understand the wave count within wave 3 in your chart. Do you have a count for the wave structure for 3?
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Re: XAO Analysis
The sequence within W.3 is a bit untidy, when that happens I tend to work backwards from the end and see where the length of the W.3 is from the W.4 and that forces the W.2 into a position.
It is turning at the points that I have expected it to in previous posts based on the the first chart below.
Another possible option for the current declining sequence is on the second chart below.
As with everything EW it is dynamic, I am interested in what your view is of the current daily pattern ?
(click to expand)
The sequence within W.3 is a bit untidy, when that happens I tend to work backwards from the end and see where the length of the W.3 is from the W.4 and that forces the W.2 into a position.
It is turning at the points that I have expected it to in previous posts based on the the first chart below.
Another possible option for the current declining sequence is on the second chart below.
As with everything EW it is dynamic, I am interested in what your view is of the current daily pattern ?
(click to expand)
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Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Fair enough Boggo, the view I tend to hold is that wave 3's are usually aggressive and should demonstrate a solid thrust (up or down), this wave doesn't convince me of those features nor does the structure of the wave. My charts on the wave assertions are in the obvious place since the detractors are quick in this thread (as per above) and perhaps a reason why thread sees so little activity these days.
Fair enough Boggo, the view I tend to hold is that wave 3's are usually aggressive and should demonstrate a solid thrust (up or down), this wave doesn't convince me of those features nor does the structure of the wave. My charts on the wave assertions are in the obvious place since the detractors are quick in this thread (as per above) and perhaps a reason why thread sees so little activity these days.
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Re: XAO Analysis
I don't trade the index, for me this is a way of predicting where the market may go and therefore whether to enter, exit, tighten stops or stand aside.
So far it's been a reasonable indicator of what may next, I haven't seen anything else that has given any indication where turning points etc may be...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=642854&viewfull=1#post642854
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=645122&viewfull=1#post645122
As I am sure you are aware it is quite tradeable though via various cfd's on the XJO etc, no different to any stock really, same rules (turning point, entry, stop and target).
I am holding four stocks that are following the same principle, all in profit with individual target areas etc and I have about half a dozen more trying to decide what they are going to do next.
I don't trade the index, for me this is a way of predicting where the market may go and therefore whether to enter, exit, tighten stops or stand aside.
So far it's been a reasonable indicator of what may next, I haven't seen anything else that has given any indication where turning points etc may be...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=642854&viewfull=1#post642854
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4888&p=645122&viewfull=1#post645122
As I am sure you are aware it is quite tradeable though via various cfd's on the XJO etc, no different to any stock really, same rules (turning point, entry, stop and target).
I am holding four stocks that are following the same principle, all in profit with individual target areas etc and I have about half a dozen more trying to decide what they are going to do next.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes, its been quiet for a while now
I will have a look at your view of the daily if you get time, have been looking at your 60 min etc.
Yes, its been quiet for a while now
I will have a look at your view of the daily if you get time, have been looking at your 60 min etc.
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
For the lay person it's hard to keep track of how EW supports trading decisions as it has never been documented.
Has proved to be useful to see where the XAO has been however.
OK, thanks for the thoughtful response.
For the lay person it's hard to keep track of how EW supports trading decisions as it has never been documented.
Has proved to be useful to see where the XAO has been however.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Don't know what's so hard Kenna's
You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
If it already hasn't.
The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
How hard is that?
Don't know what's so hard Kenna's
You've been at this long enough to know that this move is coming to an end
If it already hasn't.
The trade with least risk is long. Obvious stop at the recient low.
How hard is that?
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Re: XAO Analysis
A lay person - lol, you give yourself so little credit. Perhaps there is someone else named Kennas that has detracted and distracted and then repeated such views in every Elliott wave thread in this forum.
There's plenty of "documentation" in amongst the detractors from years gone by on EW. I wonder why such threads no longer have participation. Although far be it for me to say a moderator cannot have freedom of speech in an effort to generate "interest". Welcome to my ignore list.
A lay person - lol, you give yourself so little credit. Perhaps there is someone else named Kennas that has detracted and distracted and then repeated such views in every Elliott wave thread in this forum.
There's plenty of "documentation" in amongst the detractors from years gone by on EW. I wonder why such threads no longer have participation. Although far be it for me to say a moderator cannot have freedom of speech in an effort to generate "interest". Welcome to my ignore list.
skc
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Re: XAO Analysis
85% of all threads on the ASF either turn into a debate of FA vs TA or a debate on usefulness of EW
I see the market moving up towards the recent high ~4740 on the back of "Yay US isn't going to default", before pausing to think "Shet, US actually has more debt now...".
85% of all threads on the ASF either turn into a debate of FA vs TA or a debate on usefulness of EW
I see the market moving up towards the recent high ~4740 on the back of "Yay US isn't going to default", before pausing to think "Shet, US actually has more debt now...".
Kryzz
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Re: XAO Analysis
Read an interesting piece on futures expiry and increases in volume on constituent stocks earlier..
"the trading volume of constituent stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 index is 63 percent higher on the last trading day in the futures expiration cycle than its average volume taken over the previous 35 trading days.
In turnover terms, the index constituent stocks are 68 percent more actively traded on the last futures trading day. Indeed, the Australian equities market is never more active over the course of the futures expiration cycle than on the last trading day10"
http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/market_insights_issue_17_200705.pdf
Wander as SPI futures for July are almost up, was this big upday somewhat of a facade?
Read an interesting piece on futures expiry and increases in volume on constituent stocks earlier..
"the trading volume of constituent stocks in the S&P/ASX 200 index is 63 percent higher on the last trading day in the futures expiration cycle than its average volume taken over the previous 35 trading days.
In turnover terms, the index constituent stocks are 68 percent more actively traded on the last futures trading day. Indeed, the Australian equities market is never more active over the course of the futures expiration cycle than on the last trading day10"
http://www.sfe.com.au/content/sfe/trading/market_insights_issue_17_200705.pdf
Wander as SPI futures for July are almost up, was this big upday somewhat of a facade?
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Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
Funny how I get on an ignore list for asking how an analysis is 'tradable'? Isn't that the aim? I guess not, for some.
Yes Tech, I've been trying to crack the EW nut for some time. I've tried every and all TA and FA, and they all have their place. I even followed Yogi for some time, in detail, and that was at least amusing. Following Bronti, less so. With most TA and FA however, I have seen live trades followed through. Either my own, or those sharing. Maybe I have missed the 'live' EW trades. Not just - going up, or going down - but implementation.
Funny how I get on an ignore list for asking how an analysis is 'tradable'? Isn't that the aim? I guess not, for some.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
I think most of your problem will be overcome when you accept that for many of us Elliot is an adjunct to our analysis not the "why " we take a trade in it's own right.
You can watch live trades until the cows come home on Elliot International site
They have many going at he onetime all using Advanced Get which as you know is based around Elliot Wave.
I think most of your problem will be overcome when you accept that for many of us Elliot is an adjunct to our analysis not the "why " we take a trade in it's own right.
You can watch live trades until the cows come home on Elliot International site
They have many going at he onetime all using Advanced Get which as you know is based around Elliot Wave.