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XAO Technical Analysis

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Just noticed the 250 DEMA has crossed down over the 250 EMA three times over the last 15 + years. On each occasion the Index dropped further and not more dramatically than in 2008. The third and most recent cross down was on the 18th of this month. Keeps me cautious though it might be different this time.
 

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The DJIA and the Nasdaq made significant grounds on the press that the "the economy isn't doing too bad..." If their markets can get enthusiastic on such a weak comment you wonder how much harder they will fall when the next dose of reality goes to press.

The djia seems to be climbing back toward 12000. Our market appears to be a lot more cautious and could settle into a lower range of 4,000 to 4,500 while we wait for more certainty in global markets.

Our two speed economy continues with the gap between the two becomming more apparent. Trade opportunities abound in the volatility.
 

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tech/a said:
As this chart has other analysis with it
I have attached it here.
I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down TODAY of 120 pts or so
Then 3100 is highly likely.

If the index shows the resilience it has on the past 2 index "shocks" then this analysis maybe invalidated.(Trading above 4350)

View attachment 44125
Click to expand...


While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.

XJO 21.gif
 
Personally I think we are in line for a great deal of ranging between 3900 and 4500.

It is likely to take sometime before Europe and the US Debt situation works its way to critical mass.

In the meantime the big black cloud will remain in place stifling any serious prolong bull run.

So Im looking at range trading opportunities.
 
If it looks like that, it's one hell of a turn around.

I'd anticipate at least one more V on the way up - given the impulsiveness of the preceding drop.

Then the cerebral blanket provided by retailers assist by breaking out Christmas carols to help with the fogging of minds to extend the second wave of amnesia about Europe.
The US is growing and feeling alright.
Then when they all start to chime we're a bit over bought for the third time.
Maybe a good time to short.
 
nomore4s said:
Interesting point SKC but while the weekly bar looks the same the daily bars for those weeks tell totally different stories.

I actually think a closer representative of the bar from last Tue (9/08/11) is actually the bar printed on 21/11/08(green line on the chart) I know the intra day futures trading was pretty much the same. While we saw new lows after that bar, it signaled the end of the real momentum in that downward move, just look at the different flow after that bar.

So while I think we could drift back down to test that 3700-4000 area again (in fact I'd be a little surprised if we didn't test at least 4000 again), unless we see some sort of major event from overseas markets I think we might have seen the lows for this year. How price reacts on the next leg down will be telling, I will definitely be expecting a more orderly retreat - if not it is a worrying sign imo. With the strength we saw in those 2 down days last week I would be very surprised to see our market push below 3700 this year without some sort of major trigger from overseas.

But in this current environment anything is possible.
Click to expand...

nomore4s said:
Maybe but there are a few things to consider.
- We are not coming off a multi-year bull run
- The excessive leverage we saw at the top of the bullmarket is now drastically reduced

While I think we will see a bear market of some sort and test the lows at 3200-3400 in the next few years, I think we have seen the low for at least the next few months purely judging by the strength seen last week but of course that is no guarantee, especially in the current market. The major risk I see atm is a black swan event which of course renders all analysis pretty much useless.

Disclaimer:I'm purely a chartist and have little understanding or interest in economics, I trade off what the charts tell me.
Click to expand...

nomore4s said:
I'm not arguing that it won't or can't happen, I'm just saying the action and strength in those bars indicates some sort of bottom for the moment.
Click to expand...

Analysis I posted in the tanking thread, still stands.

If anything the fact we didn't go below 4100 on the last leg down strengthens it.

I also think we will see a range bound market for the next few months and I'm still favoring prices to test 3200-3400 sometime next year but 3700 could yet provide enough support to stop that. I will have to review my outlook if we see prices above 4700 though.
 
It may also be prudent to note the volumes on the S&P since July 27.
I'm not worried about that but I'm not ignoring it either.
 
Very good day I thought. Strong into close.

Yesterday saw an upwards breakout from a nicely formed inverted H&S, with (strangely) a target of 5030.

Amazing turnaround. How long will it last? 4600? Hope so.
 
tech/a said:
As this chart has other analysis with it
I have attached it here.
I think in the foreseeable future IF we get an impulse move down TODAY of 120 pts or so
Then 3100 is highly likely.

If the index shows the resilience it has on the past 2 index "shocks" then this analysis maybe invalidated.(Trading above 4350)

View attachment 44125
Click to expand...

tech/a said:
While this ( 3100 ) may well still play out if the current high is taken out this alternative may also play out.

View attachment 44252
Click to expand...
Tech, What happened on 19 Aug? Looks like it tanked on my charts.

Can you summarise the forecast here, or is it something more complicated and we have to wait for highs and lows to be broken?

It seems like you're saying if it breaks up, then it breaks up to 4600 ish and if it doesn't in goes down to 3100 ish.
 
What ifs Kennas
Like the trains on the tracks to Melbourne
If however it switches to Sydney then there is a good chance it will go there.

The current high hasn't been taken out yet so everything is still in a down trend longer term and an up trend in a shorter term.

Very difficult to trade anything longer term short or long.
My trading is intraday index futs
No long term anything right now.
Plenty of what ifs.
 
Trending downwards and sideways. IMO needs to break out above 4500 (and stay there) to reverse the downward trend. With reporting season not being as brutal as it could have been the upward break out is possible.

xao 2011-08-31.png

However, with the global sovereign debt issues unresolved and the volitility of the u.s.a I still see the xao trading sideways between 4000 and 4500 with occaisional spikes under 4000 and hopefully some above 4500.
 
DJIA 24 hour contract up about 100 atm.

Who's for a small day on Wall St tonight? All the Major world Indexes are trading into congestion (DAX pooped itself however and is a notable exception) ... will we take out 4300 before 4000?

If 4300 maybe this time next week .... 4000 could be smashed (say) Friday
 

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