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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

XAO now moved up above both rising supports.

Do these hold any weight? Will they act as resistance going forward?

Interesting that it has broken upwards where the two trend lines cross...
10 of the last 11 days have been green now. Quite a run we've had.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Good question for EW I think.

All the signs were that this was a larger leg down.

Does this represent a change in the count and we have really seen the 'bottom' or something more complex?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nothing has altered as yet.
Still long but topping.



Very nearly smack in the resistance zone.

I dont like the GET count.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I dont like the GET count.
Click to expand...

Me neither.

I'm more confortable for a bullish count. The morning star didn't quite make it, but Three White Soldiers are having a good go on the weekly chart.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
24 Mar


31 Mar


Tech, this seems to be a very fluid program. The difference between that being an 12345 to an ABC is huge.

How do you trade that situation?

Just stay out until other factors provide a trigger, or just keep stops tight?
Click to expand...

Other factors like sayyy a 7.4 quake off japan again?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
24 Mar


31 Mar


Tech, this seems to be a very fluid program. The difference between that being an 12345 to an ABC is huge.

How do you trade that situation?

Just stay out until other factors provide a trigger, or just keep stops tight?
Click to expand...

GET uses a mathematical algorithm to do counts so it will force a count to "Fit" its algorithm.
Corrective counts can become very complex--which is obvious here.
It still doesn't alter the fact that price is coming into 2 areas of past resistance.

The first at 4950 and over to the left another at 5025 is.
It will take quite some effort to push through these.
While it certainly has been belting along since the Japan tsunami it now faces a point of decision.

How do I play it?

All you can do is do what you always do that works for your trading.
For me thats constant portfolio management and hedging any weakness with index futures.To me its a warning that things are going to be harder on the long side.
So Ill be locking in profit and tightening stops,taking smaller parcel sizes and pulling back on my portfolio number---if there is going to be a pullback I wish to minimize damage and keep as much capital intact for opportunity later or on the short side.



I'm not taking myself out of the game on the long side but I am eying the risk side of being long---hard.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just waiting for the next piece of the jigsaw at the moment.

We could be looking at a double top or one of two EW scenarios.

Charts below are weekly.

First chart is a zoom in on where we are at just now, possible double top area of resistance.

Second chart expands a bit on that and introduces another line of resistance at 5130.
A break above that would be significant as its likely that we have had an ABC correction.

The third chart is a possible current state should the 5130 be broken, we may be in a new upward wave 3 heading into 6000.

Until something gives we are just guessing which way is next and all of the above and below is based on my amateur worth.

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

This is an XJO chart---apologies.
But it is significant.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
This is an XJO chart---apologies.
But it is significant.
View attachment 42335
Click to expand...

I rarely read this thread as the analysis is often beyond me. But I have learned to respect the views of several analysts Tech -- you included.

I am trying to read what you have not written... Is it the case that you are saying we may now be "ripe" for a downturn? Sorry for the naivety of the question.

Regards

Rick
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Well so far today its a resounding yes.

Let me tell you that even taking evasive action today has bitten hard!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Also note that Frank nailed it as he often does.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Where to from here tech? Back down to recent lows (some type of flat pattern) or a small breather and higher highs?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
Where to from here tech? Back down to recent lows (some type of flat pattern) or a small breather and higher highs?
Click to expand...

I liken bullish moves to a train--if you want to pull it up its going to take a while.
Bearish moves are like dropping a ball on concrete---the higher and quicker it falls the bigger the bounce.

This reversal deep and quick has me think its sending a message of weakness.
There will be a bounce and its strength will tell a lot. I expect that if new highs are made it will be like extracting blood from a stone!

So my plan is to look for short opportunities on indexes and wait for signs of corrective patterns in the now much lighter portfolio.
In this fickle corrective pattern trends will be short.So my time frame also shortens more than usual as does my risk down to .25 and .5% (Portfolio long plays)

WEEKLY XJO CHART click to expand

 
Re: XAO Analysis

What do people think about MA's based on Fibonacci nos?

I'm noticing the 76/78 MA seems to be a pretty good medium term trend indicator.

That being the case it suggests we're testing momentum support around now. If the Bull is to continue it likely won't go much lower than this before charging up again.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well I use fibonacci numbers. 55 and 89 are Fibbo numbers. I do not know where you got your average from.
I use 13 on indicators, and 34 wma to trade on. 144 or 189 to look at trend direction.
Traders use 150 or 200 . oh. well!!!!
Fibonacci Trading is an ok book. Prices should be good at fishpond.
Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis



Curve fitting.

I liken bullish moves to a train--if you want to pull it up its going to take a while.
Bearish moves are like dropping a ball on concrete---the higher and quicker it falls the bigger the bounce.
Click to expand...

Last night ball on concrete tonight---bounce---not that hard is it?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure about where we are at the moment. I feel things could go either way from here. Below 4800 and things would certainly look shaky though.

Things look very similar to exactly 1 year ago, but I feel that the recent low is quite strong - I like those high volume turning points.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis


I hadn't thought about it much before today and just started looking at the fib retracement numbers as a MA. I remember seeing a program once where the selected fibo retracement numbers displayed as continuous lines with the candles/bars... appearing like a multi level bollinger band. I used it for awhile on forex and rather liked it.

But, I'm open to any ideas and thoughts.

I just took 76.4 and 78.6 from a fibo retracement program. Didn't check them, although I believe 50% isn't strictly a fibo number but is often used as/like one.
 
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