XAO Technical Analysis

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

S&P 500 is what you should look at.

This is practically all I look at to get a meter of the US markets.

But on the topic of equivalent indexes here and in the US, I wonder whether the Russell2000 is a little more appropriate to compare with our XAO...just in terms of the size of the US market vrs our market and therefore the relative size of each (inverted) tip of the iceberg that the XAO and Russell2000 represents. The S&P500 might be closer to the XJO?

Disclaiminer: I haven't put much thought into this, just pondering.

ASX.G

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

I can certainly see the similarities between the XAO and S & P 500 (does it make sense to call the S & P 500 the OEX? ), in the last 6 months the XAO is almost a mirror of the S & P 500.
Also, who came up with "standard and poors"? I could think of better names...

SP 500 is SPX. OEX is the SP100

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is practically all I look at to get a meter of the US markets.

But on the topic of equivalent indexes here and in the US, I wonder whether the Russell2000 is a little more appropriate to compare with our XAO...just in terms of the size of the US market vrs our market and therefore the relative size of each (inverted) tip of the iceberg that the XAO and Russell2000 represents. The S&P500 might be closer to the XJO?

Disclaiminer: I haven't put much thought into this, just pondering.

ASX.G

The Russell2000 is a mid cap index and excludes large caps. So is more comp[arable to the Aussie "Small Ords"

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: XAO Analysis

The Russell2000 is a mid cap index and excludes large caps. So is more comp[arable to the Aussie "Small Ords"

My apologies for not answering the PM's I recieved
This Little Bear Hunter has been VERY BUSY!


As I understand it

The DOW is 30 Stocks
the S&P is 500 Stocks


The XJO is 200 stocks
The XAO is ~ 530 stocks

All the Indecies have all the Heavywiegts
Only a few smalls are added for respectability

Once you get you head around this you will see
WHO are the LEADERS
and
Who are the LAGGARDS

Ahoy there dear Professor

Does the SP500 lead the DOW?

Does the XAO lead the XJO?

It would be very interesting for you/anyone to do a confirmation of charts

Re: Learders and Laggards

"It's as easy as That!"

I think we would all love to see what I believe to be true in these charts

Salute and Gods' speed

 

[Pat]

Re: XAO Analysis

SP 500 is SPX. OEX is the SP100

That is right was looking at bigcharts and got crossed, big charts has the S & P 500 symbol as SP500. Why are these symbols not universal?

 

[gfresh]

Re: XAO Analysis

The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.

I think most just see it as a general indication of the stock market in general over there, as it represents the largest, and therefore some of the the key drivers that makes up the market sentiment as a whole. If one went up, while another went down it might tell a different story.

Why the media still choses the DOW when they could equally refer to the S&P who knows, I guess it defines the thoughts of Americans. Biggest is best?

As for Chaza's question.. maybe somebody can interpret these

 

[gfresh]

Re: XAO Analysis

United States S&P (500) vs Aussie XJO (200) for the last few months, and last few days

Looking at the daily, at times they appear to have many of the same turning points, even though they take place more than 10 hours apart!

 

[tcoates]

Re: XAO Analysis

Certainly was a roller coaster ride this week. (And my stocks are still down, and I will be out, watching and waiting patiently (hopefully).) But I saw in the yahoo finance pages that the DOW had dropped another 2%. Oh Dear. But there were days when the US went up by xxx this week also. And there were pundits here wondering why AUS did not do the same. I decided to have a quick look at the weekly stats and see how each market faired over the week (see attachment).

I am not going to over analyze, while the daily fluctuations may seem great, on a weekly timescale appear to level out. And the XAO went down by 1.7%. And for the "non-muppets", here is the XJO

XJO 6,081.50 6021.00 0.99%

(Now to hope that I pulled all the correct numbers.) Need to look at things on a grander scale. Though I still think the AUS market will crap itself on Monday after seeing 2% drop elsewhere in the world. There, I have stuck my head out, but hey, if I am wrong, and it goes up, I dont really care either.

Tim

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Certainly was a roller coaster ride this week. (And my stocks are still down, and I will be out, watching and waiting patiently (hopefully).) But I saw in the yahoo finance pages that the DOW had dropped another 2%. Oh Dear. But there were days when the US went up by xxx this week also. And there were pundits here wondering why AUS did not do the same. I decided to have a quick look at the weekly stats and see how each market faired over the week (see attachment).

I am not going to over analyze, while the daily fluctuations may seem great, on a weekly timescale appear to level out. And the XAO went down by 1.7%. And for the "non-muppets", here is the XJO

XJO 6,081.50 6021.00 0.99%

(Now to hope that I pulled all the correct numbers.) Need to look at things on a grander scale. Though I still think the AUS market will crap itself on Monday after seeing 2% drop elsewhere in the world. There, I have stuck my head out, but hey, if I am wrong, and it goes up, I dont really care either.

Tim

Well for starters, IG Markets have the ASX200 at 5880 ish at the finish of the US sessions....so expect an open somewhere around there depending on the gap....looks like another day of short scalps

Cheers,

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Once you get you head around this you will see
WHO are the LEADERS
and
Who are the LAGGARDS

Ahoy there dear Professor

Does the SP500 lead the DOW?

Does the XAO lead the XJO?

It would be very interesting for you/anyone to do a confirmation of charts

Re: Learders and Laggards

I would suspect that as soon as you find some sort of confirmation about who is the leading or lagging it will be about to change. This is always a common theme in markets, financials vs Materials, Small cap vs Big Cap, Tech and Bio vs Mega Cap Industrial. And between markets, US vs Aussie or Specie vs established. It is just the flow of big money trying to find the next hot sector. Recently the DOW has lead because of the so called comeback of the Mega Caps. I think theses Leaders and Laggards are important to keep an eye on. Have a look at the our Financials they have been in a down trend since MAY! The big money have been slipping out the door for months. The Leaders and Laggards are important but they are rarely the same ones.

United States S&P (500) vs Aussie XJO (200) for the last few months, and last few days

Looking at the daily, at times they appear to have many of the same turning points, even though they take place more than 10 hours apart!

If you think we only respond to the US and not at TIMES try and predict the next move you have no understanding of how the big money play this game. Retail traders look at what happened last night in the US. professionals (Hedge Funds, Banks, Prop Traders & Successful Individuals) Look at what will, could, should happen next and position them selves for that. Perfect example last two days jumps in the US ignored by the big money in Asia and knock the market down after it gaped up.

 

[Fab]

Re: XAO Analysis

I would suspect that as soon as you find some sort of confirmation about who is the leading or lagging it will be about to change. This is always a common theme in markets, financials vs Materials, Small cap vs Big Cap, Tech and Bio vs Mega Cap Industrial. And between markets, US vs Aussie or Specie vs established. It is just the flow of big money trying to find the next hot sector. Recently the DOW has lead because of the so called comeback of the Mega Caps. I think theses Leaders and Laggards are important to keep an eye on. Have a look at the our Financials they have been in a down trend since MAY! The big money have been slipping out the door for months. The Leaders and Laggards are important but they are rarely the same ones.



If you think we only respond to the US and not at TIMES try and predict the next move you have no understanding of how the big money play this game. Retail traders look at what happened last night in the US. professionals (Hedge Funds, Banks, Prop Traders & Successful Individuals) Look at what will, could, should happen next and position them selves for that. Perfect example last two days jumps in the US ignored by the big money in Asia and knock the market down after it gaped up.

I would be surprised so if on monday the ASX does not register a big drop follwing the lead from Wall Street.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I would be surprised so if on monday the ASX does not register a big drop follwing the lead from Wall Street.

Yes It will be a high volume down day. A lot of people will be selling exiting last weeks positions and for every panic sell or new short there will be someone on the other side buying back their short position or getting long with a view to the week ahead. Who will they be? On balance not the retail trader I would think.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes It will be a high volume down day.

Because of the US? Because of sub prime?

 

[UPKA]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.

I hope you all realise that the Subprime Debacle has only just begun!!!

It has about another 18 Months to run out and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet....

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks,

No our market is not dominated by energy and material.
The largest Cap sector is.......You guessed it....Financials at 30% if you include property its at 38% almost double Materials at 19 % and energy is only 4.8 % of our market.

The credit problems will result in unwinding of hot money in everything. BHP was down 3.5% in the US last night. more than the market.

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think Friday's sell off in US is just a panic sell be4 the weekend. the problem of Subprime should have less effect on energy and meterial stocks, as our market is dominated by these stocks, i think the coming monday shouldnt be as bad as the drop in US.

Are you confident enough to put a long trade on the SPI?

Cheers,

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: XAO Analysis

I hope you all realise that the Subprime Debacle has only just begun!!!

It has about another 18 Months to run out and we haven't even seen the worst of it yet....

Exactly !! Plunge protection team did a crap job Friday !


Seems like everyone has got up out of there seats and slowly walked towards the door, assuring us "dont worry all is cool" - Theres only one door in this room, what happens when someone screams "Fire" ?

I wonder .......

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

No our market is not dominated by energy and material.
The largest Cap sector is.......You guessed it....Financials at 30% if you include property its at 38% almost double Materials at 19 % and energy is only 4.8 % of our market.

The credit problems will result in unwinding of hot money in everything. BHP was down 3.5% in the US last night. more than the market.

All is interconnected though. If resources go into the tank in Oz, so does everything; property, financials, tiddlywinks... the whole shebang.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

All is interconnected though. If resources go into the tank in Oz, so does everything; property, financials, tiddlywinks... the whole shebang.

Yep. Is not the time to be a "china is still strong ostrich"