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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I was speaking to a broker this morning and he said that most of his clients were as nervous as Shane Warne on Fathers day.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
That's a good one. :)

We are on the way back up again, apparently. Up 45 points, but while I'm typing, it's back down to 28 points up.
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that js shows u how nervous the investors r, when they see red, everyone started to dump. so any bad news coming out of US will see another bloody day here in Aust tomorrow...:banghead:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

UPKA said:
that js shows u how nervous the investors r, when they see red, everyone started to dump. so any bad news coming out of US will see another bloody day here in Aust tomorrow...:banghead:
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It's like a school of fish at the moment. Quite amazing too especially when the pilot is fluctuating between fear and greed. There are so many lessons to be learnt from this for next time around. Number one is flee to cash when you hear the words 'credit', 'US' and 'crunch' in the same headline. It would have been handy to have the funds to snaffle a few bargains in the next few days rather than suffer the daily ignominy of belligerent red.

Ha ha. The old timers must be loving hearing us novices be constantly amazed and befuddled by the market. What did they call it in Vietnam? Veterans had the 'thousand yard stare'. We should dub it the 'thousand point stare'.

Wonder what Aunty Dow has instore for us tonight? Seeing it leapt up and down like a yo-yo yesterday there is not much point taking too much comfort from the hard yards put in by 'bargain hunters' at the close yesterday.

Good luck with the head scratching.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
It's like a school of fish at the moment. Quite amazing too especially when the pilot is fluctuating between fear and greed. There are so many lessons to be learnt from this for next time around. Number one is flee to cash when you hear the words 'credit', 'US' and 'crunch' in the same headline. It would have been handy to have the funds to snaffle a few bargains in the next few days rather than suffer the daily ignominy of belligerent red.

Ha ha. The old timers must be loving hearing us novices be constantly amazed and befuddled by the market. What did they call it in Vietnam? Veterans had the 'thousand yard stare'. We should dub it the 'thousand point stare'.

Wonder what Aunty Dow has instore for us tonight? Seeing it leapt up and down like a yo-yo yesterday there is not much point taking too much comfort from the hard yards put in by 'bargain hunters' at the close yesterday.

Good luck with the head scratching.
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One crumb of comfort is that the DOW is an 'evolving creature' in that it gets used to bad news and soon takes it in it's stride.

When 9/11 hit, it was a shock and the DOW got hit. Subsequent terrorist alerts/bad news in Iraq/possible conflict with Iran/N Korea then seemed to get ignored by the market i.e it became a way of life

I reckon by next week, the DOW will plough forward based on what it should i.e corporate earnings.

By next month, the words 'crunch,credit,US' will be shrugged off as a way off life, and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.:2twocents

On that subject what were the last 2 corrections all about? I've forgotten:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pommiegranite said:
One crumb of comfort is that the DOW is an 'evolving creature' in that it gets used to bad news and soon takes it in it's stride.

When 9/11 hit, it was a shock and the DOW got hit. Subsequent terrorist alerts/bad news in Iraq/possible conflict with Iran/N Korea then seemed to get ignored by the market i.e it became a way of life

I reckon by next week, the DOW will plough forward based on what it should i.e corporate earnings.

By next month, the words 'crunch,credit,US' will be shrugged off as a way off life, and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.:2twocents

On that subject what were the last 2 corrections all about? I've forgotten:D
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This is the craziest post i've seen for some time Pomme. You're attributing every sell off to news?

Price action creates news to hang on it because it sounds better than "the DOW fell today because there were not any buyers around, the funds all sold last week and stupid moms and dads where left holding the bag"

We've just seen an obvious period of distribution like none recent, we need to see some buyers enter before prices will move up.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
This is the craziest post i've seen for some time Pomme. You're attributing every sell off to news?
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I find your logic very disturbing. Firstly because you have decided to analyze my post beyond the neccessary. Where did write that "I attribute every sell off to news"?

I'll throw your logic back at you and ask you "You're not attributing any sell off due to any news?".

FWIW..IMO..Sell offs happen due to a combination of news and fear

CanOz said:
Price action creates news to hang on it because it sounds better than "the DOW fell today because there were not any buyers around, the funds all sold last week and stupid moms and dads where left holding the bag"
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Rubbish...absolute rubbish!! So when the DOW fell 600 point after the attacks on the WTC, what you are infact saying is that this price action created the news to hang around it?:confused:

CanOz said:
We've just seen an obvious period of distribution like none recent, we need to see some buyers enter before prices will move up.

Cheers,
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We need good news/lack of bad news so buyers will enter....please don't put the cart before the horse.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I believe the last correction was a double serving of a slumped US housing Market and an expected interest rate rise...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It will be interesting to see if we get the late friday afternoon dump tomorrow.

Or will people anticipate the late afternoon dump and liquidate prior to lunch... then the flock will see the sell off :eek: and sell off even more in fear, only for bargain hunters to come to the rescue just before close :cool:

The XJO nudged the 200 day moving average today. The XAO is getting close.

I'll be watching for a sell off tomorrow (and bargains). The bottom can't be too far :confused: (i hope).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pommiegranite said:
I find your logic very disturbing. Firstly because you have decided to analyze my post beyond the neccessary. Where did write that "I attribute every sell off to news"?

I'll throw your logic back at you and ask you "You're not attributing any sell off due to any news?".

FWIW..IMO..Sell offs happen due to a combination of news and fear



Rubbish...absolute rubbish!! So when the DOW fell 600 point after the attacks on the WTC, what you are infact saying is that this price action created the news to hang around it?:confused:



We need good news/lack of bad news so buyers will enter....please don't put the cart before the horse.
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Ok, my apologies for being a little agressive there...

Its just that it really gets to me how the media fits stories around much (but not all) of the price action that we see in the markets. Take oil futures for example, watch the spot chart and then flip back and forth between that and CNBC and listen to the rubbish about how nervous traders sold off because of this and that, not a mention that prices hit a key support or resistance level and traders took profits becuase they were locked in holding and hoping from the last advance or decline.

I agree that major news moves markets, but when we are ripe for a technical correction people blame the news on the fact that there are no buyers around....the buyers left the building ages ago and its only the weaker hands that are causing the prices to fall by having to accept lower and lower prices to get a fill.

If you want to know how the markets use news then look at RIO recently, the big end of town got out on the day they announced the Alcan takeover...sell the news.

The balance of supply and demand determines the prices of stocks, futures and currencies, thats a fact. News determines what happens to the price action when participants act on it given the balance of supply or demand already in the price of the issue.

When the buyers do re-enter the market, the real buyers not the everyday traders, it will be in the form of absorption buying or capitualation. Then a period of consolidation before prices start to move higher from the mom and dads etc, paying up for a stock because theres not enough to go around.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO looks to have bounced off the 61.8 retrace level of the recent run. All things point to at least positive action, rather than a continued slide. But, most importantly these key levels (200dma etc.) have been respected so far. It has to giddy up now, otherwise I will be worried.

Strangely enough... I've enjoyed all of this. I must have issues. Lol! :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Strangely enough... I've enjoyed all of this. I must have issues. Lol! :confused:
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No issues there mate. I've enjoyed it a heck of a lot.

That or we both have issues. I'll let you know what my shrink says about the matter.

Dow up 1% over night.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
Ok, my apologies for being a little agressive there...

Its just that it really gets to me how the media fits stories around much (but not all) of the price action that we see in the markets. Take oil futures for example, watch the spot chart and then flip back and forth between that and CNBC and listen to the rubbish about how nervous traders sold off because of this and that, not a mention that prices hit a key support or resistance level and traders took profits becuase they were locked in holding and hoping from the last advance or decline.

I agree that major news moves markets, but when we are ripe for a technical correction people blame the news on the fact that there are no buyers around....the buyers left the building ages ago and its only the weaker hands that are causing the prices to fall by having to accept lower and lower prices to get a fill.

If you want to know how the markets use news then look at RIO recently, the big end of town got out on the day they announced the Alcan takeover...sell the news.

The balance of supply and demand determines the prices of stocks, futures and currencies, thats a fact. News determines what happens to the price action when participants act on it given the balance of supply or demand already in the price of the issue.

When the buyers do re-enter the market, the real buyers not the everyday traders, it will be in the form of absorption buying or capitualation. Then a period of consolidation before prices start to move higher from the mom and dads etc, paying up for a stock because theres not enough to go around.

Cheers,
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Hey..no worries Canaussieuck. Please accept my apolgies too.:eek:

About news items relating to markets, I classify them into 2 distinct types:

a.Genuine Events - affect markets
b. Reporting - i.e views which can lead to panic and also recovery.

I think its the second type that can be utter rubbish.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Another volatile day in US last nite, im expecting the similar sort of thing in XAO today, Subprime worries r cooling down, could be a turning point now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

UPKA said:
Another volatile day in US last nite, im expecting the similar sort of thing in XAO today, Subprime worries r cooling down, could be a turning point now.
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I thought that volatility was down last night.
Also, thats 2 updays in a row (first time in 3 weeks)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This is the XJO but you get the idea...

Any takers for this scenario?

Cheers,
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
This is the XJO but you get the idea...

Any takers for this scenario?

Cheers,
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Looks like the Feb 28 picture, and we know what happened there. It just bounced. I think we're dependant on sub prime debacle announcements atm. No bad news, and back up. Bad news, and..........
 
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