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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
- Start date
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
1/ Gold will shoot up to $764,494,474,874,654 an oz (or some equally bizarre figure) as the world economy and fiat currency collapse etc etc.
2/ POG contains a speculative value for which the credit bubble is responsible and gold will go the same way as everything else; down.
Both arguments are equally compelling, but it comes down to whether any financial apocalypse is hyperinflationary or deflationary... and that all depends on how freakin' stupid Bernanke et al want to be from here on.
In my view, a deflationary recession would be miles better than a hyperinflationary depression.
If we get hyperinflation, I would want to be holding physical and/or proxy physical and not miners.
There is two theories of course (as always)
1/ Gold will shoot up to $764,494,474,874,654 an oz (or some equally bizarre figure) as the world economy and fiat currency collapse etc etc.
2/ POG contains a speculative value for which the credit bubble is responsible and gold will go the same way as everything else; down.
Both arguments are equally compelling, but it comes down to whether any financial apocalypse is hyperinflationary or deflationary... and that all depends on how freakin' stupid Bernanke et al want to be from here on.
In my view, a deflationary recession would be miles better than a hyperinflationary depression.
If we get hyperinflation, I would want to be holding physical and/or proxy physical and not miners.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Re: XAO Analysis
Fridays action is what made me think totally bearish green doji just above the close shows indecision. We had two poor attempts to move forward. USA markets was just as unsure the two rises came out of the negative in the last 30 min of business.
A slightly lower red candle on low volumes is a continuation candle.
Both the days on the US and our market told me to watch out the only reason I did not go short last night was due to the last minute surges on the dow, I did not want to stay up all night! I saw it as a matter of time before the selling continued.
Lets hope this next plunge can be an exhaustion move and show a true bottom.
I will be looking to make some intraday plays on monday could pluge and rally or plunge with minor rallies, I am quite sure we are going to give back all of the last two gains on Monday, most likely more.
Good trading.
Looking at the candle sticks of the xao on Friday, Little volume and movement, being a doji.
This is a positive sign,not a bad sign.Hopefully it will gradually crawl back up. A 6100 to early may have no backbone.
Fridays action is what made me think totally bearish green doji just above the close shows indecision. We had two poor attempts to move forward. USA markets was just as unsure the two rises came out of the negative in the last 30 min of business.
A slightly lower red candle on low volumes is a continuation candle.
Both the days on the US and our market told me to watch out the only reason I did not go short last night was due to the last minute surges on the dow, I did not want to stay up all night! I saw it as a matter of time before the selling continued.
Lets hope this next plunge can be an exhaustion move and show a true bottom.
I will be looking to make some intraday plays on monday could pluge and rally or plunge with minor rallies, I am quite sure we are going to give back all of the last two gains on Monday, most likely more.
Good trading.
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Re: XAO Analysis
"Due to a Public Holiday in New South Wales, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, Monday, 6 August 2007 will be an ASX non-settlement day. Please note the ASX will remain open for trading."
"Due to a Public Holiday in New South Wales, Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory, Monday, 6 August 2007 will be an ASX non-settlement day. Please note the ASX will remain open for trading."
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
With the news all over the weekend of the mess in the US on Friday and the stories of interest rates rising on Wednesday and a public holiday in NSW with all the Mum & Dad traders, sorry investors, watching the open with time to do something about their knocked around accounts, the setup for a retail traders panic open is just about perfect.
With the news all over the weekend of the mess in the US on Friday and the stories of interest rates rising on Wednesday and a public holiday in NSW with all the Mum & Dad traders, sorry investors, watching the open with time to do something about their knocked around accounts, the setup for a retail traders panic open is just about perfect.
Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
I'd expect a bounce of some sorts here. Support + 200 d ma, plus where is the BB? Way oversold. Looks like crash material really. The bouce on the stochastic might be a signal of buying....Haven't seen the MACD look like that for some time. And the trend hasn't gone under the 200 d ma since.....when...03? Maybe I'll wait a bit....
I'd expect a bounce of some sorts here. Support + 200 d ma, plus where is the BB? Way oversold. Looks like crash material really.
The bouce on the stochastic might be a signal of buying....Haven't seen the MACD look like that for some time. And the trend hasn't gone under the 200 d ma since.....when...03? Maybe I'll wait a bit....Attachments
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Re: XAO Analysis
Is there a case for big crash?
There are just quite a few bullish news out there and I am finding it hard to believe that the market will continue to crash below whatever support (be it 200 MA) given our strong economy at the moment and the China boom.
Of course, there is a case for the US will really go into a long-predicted depression and drag the rest of the world to it. Too much uncertainty at the moment.
The last time the ADX- value went up that high was the 911 too.
Ohhhh, do anyone notice some people in your office looked a bit..."down" recently? I certainly could tell in my office for the last few days.
Is there a case for big crash?
There are just quite a few bullish news out there and I am finding it hard to believe that the market will continue to crash below whatever support (be it 200 MA) given our strong economy at the moment and the China boom.
Of course, there is a case for the US will really go into a long-predicted depression and drag the rest of the world to it. Too much uncertainty at the moment.
The last time the ADX- value went up that high was the 911 too.
Ohhhh, do anyone notice some people in your office looked a bit..."down" recently?
I certainly could tell in my office for the last few days.
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
We have 4 months of longs trapped in this fall. When we fall like this it is rare that we go straight back up without some sort of retest. We have had many "corrections" since 03 but none have done the Technical damage of this fall. The Financials are a mess they gave up on their 200 day MA last week. And I have yet to see any short covering. (SPI open interest has risen not fallen). Think the second test of the lows would be a better time to think about longs. I'm sure many are still playing by the fundamentals are still good game but if you look at what has been falling since May the big guys that move the big Caps who play by the Fundamentals seem to be disagreeing since May.
I'd expect a bounce of some sorts here. Support + 200 d ma, plus where is the BB? Way oversold. Looks like crash material really.
We have 4 months of longs trapped in this fall. When we fall like this it is rare that we go straight back up without some sort of retest. We have had many "corrections" since 03 but none have done the Technical damage of this fall. The Financials are a mess they gave up on their 200 day MA last week. And I have yet to see any short covering. (SPI open interest has risen not fallen). Think the second test of the lows would be a better time to think about longs. I'm sure many are still playing by the fundamentals are still good game but if you look at what has been falling since May the big guys that move the big Caps who play by the Fundamentals seem to be disagreeing since May.
Re: XAO Analysis
What is surprising me atm is the how alot of people are treating this current correction. People seem to be under the impression that the sub prime problems have nothing to do with the Aussie economy & market and will go away as quickly as they appeared, I'm no economist but if the problems in the USA are deeper than what everyone thinks or has an affect/spreads to the overall American economy that surely has to have an affect on the rest of the world, us included.
Alot of the comments on the threads atm are "this or that is cheap" or along these lines and people are expecting the stocks to bounce back quickly and to be retesting highs shortly. This seems to be especially true on some of the spec stock threads.
But what if the type of market we're in is changing? While I don't think we will drop straight into a bear market, I think it's starting to look like we will be in a sideways market for a while - for at least the next few months, maybe even longer - 1 year+. It appears to me that alot of people have fallen into a "habit" of trading a bullmarket or have only ever traded a bullmarket and seem to think that the good times will continue for ever and are failing to plan for the next phase of the market.
So to me now is the time to start looking at different strategies for a different type of market (be prepared, and if the bull continues keep your current strategies).
I have attached a chart with the last 3 larger corrections circled. The first thing I noticed about this latest correction is the distribution at the top before the fall and how sharp and hard it has fallen compared to the last 2. Judging by the sideways action after the correction in May last year we could be in for an extended sideways pattern after the fall stops.
And unless America finds some support somewhere shortly I don't think that the 200mda will hold up.
Sorry for the rant, my 2c worth. The more knowledgable/expirenced will no doubt have a different/more informed view, please feel free to correct anything.
What is surprising me atm is the how alot of people are treating this current correction. People seem to be under the impression that the sub prime problems have nothing to do with the Aussie economy & market and will go away as quickly as they appeared, I'm no economist but if the problems in the USA are deeper than what everyone thinks or has an affect/spreads to the overall American economy that surely has to have an affect on the rest of the world, us included.
Alot of the comments on the threads atm are "this or that is cheap" or along these lines and people are expecting the stocks to bounce back quickly and to be retesting highs shortly. This seems to be especially true on some of the spec stock threads.
But what if the type of market we're in is changing? While I don't think we will drop straight into a bear market, I think it's starting to look like we will be in a sideways market for a while - for at least the next few months, maybe even longer - 1 year+. It appears to me that alot of people have fallen into a "habit" of trading a bullmarket or have only ever traded a bullmarket and seem to think that the good times will continue for ever and are failing to plan for the next phase of the market.
So to me now is the time to start looking at different strategies for a different type of market (be prepared, and if the bull continues keep your current strategies).
I have attached a chart with the last 3 larger corrections circled. The first thing I noticed about this latest correction is the distribution at the top before the fall and how sharp and hard it has fallen compared to the last 2. Judging by the sideways action after the correction in May last year we could be in for an extended sideways pattern after the fall stops.
And unless America finds some support somewhere shortly I don't think that the 200mda will hold up.
Sorry for the rant, my 2c worth. The more knowledgable/expirenced will no doubt have a different/more informed view, please feel free to correct anything.
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Re: XAO Analysis
True.
Our market seems really over panicking.
Just look how others go?
Nikkei rebound from -200 to -65.
Yet even US market, the one who cause the problems, down less than ASX.
If true US is collapse, market trend turns side to bear market, it won't be this year though, considering China and India demands still high.
No mention of the Chindia factor??????????????
True.
Our market seems really over panicking.
Just look how others go?
Nikkei rebound from -200 to -65.
Yet even US market, the one who cause the problems, down less than ASX.
If true US is collapse, market trend turns side to bear market, it won't be this year though, considering China and India demands still high.
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: XAO Analysis
Funny how China is shrugging all this off ....
Makes me think the fed will let it run down till China takes a hit too (>:
Funny how China is shrugging all this off ....
Makes me think the fed will let it run down till China takes a hit too (>:
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Re: XAO Analysis
U guys make me laugh.
Always with the china thing,
China will crumble when it crumbles ATM I would suggest you concentrate on the leading influence to our markets the numero uno USA.
U guys make me laugh.
Always with the china thing,
China will crumble when it crumbles ATM I would suggest you concentrate on the leading influence to our markets the numero uno USA.
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Re: XAO Analysis
For what it's worth, I am thinking a bit of a rally is in the offing tonight and for a while at least ie the coming weeks? Just in time for a real correction come October, after this qtrs US data comes out, and GDP takes a bath, and a home builder goes bust?
For what it's worth, I am thinking a bit of a rally is in the offing tonight and for a while at least ie the coming weeks? Just in time for a real correction come October, after this qtrs US data comes out, and GDP takes a bath, and a home builder goes bust?
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Re: XAO Analysis
Crikey Crew
We have been through a lot over the last few years
What's all the Panic about
Maybe I have missed something
Wars (Albeit Off-shore)
Aids
Terrorist Attacks
Bird Flues and Mad Cows
This just a simple matter of the changing of the Guard
The Big Buck is no longer the Big Buck
Ego is Everything to the Yanks and they will not take this lying down
But
They have no choice
The Seas they are a Changing
This is not a CRASH IMO
This was a Real Crash/Credit Squeeze!
Salute and Gods' speed
Crikey Crew
We have been through a lot over the last few years
What's all the Panic about
Maybe I have missed something
Wars (Albeit Off-shore)
Aids
Terrorist Attacks
Bird Flues and Mad Cows
This just a simple matter of the changing of the Guard
The Big Buck is no longer the Big Buck
Ego is Everything to the Yanks and they will not take this lying down
But
They have no choice
The Seas they are a Changing
This is not a CRASH IMO
This was a Real Crash/Credit Squeeze!
Salute and Gods' speed
Attachments
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Re: XAO Analysis
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Monday as investors saw something positive in the Bear Stearns shakeup as far as the credit crunch is concerned.
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Well, let see how things are going tonight.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Monday as investors saw something positive in the Bear Stearns shakeup as far as the credit crunch is concerned.
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Well, let see how things are going tonight.
Re: XAO Analysis
While I agree that the Chindia thing will provide opportunities over the next decade if the US economy starts to seriously falter it will have an effect on China imo. China will to some extent feed off itself with internal growth but without other countries consuming Chinas exports there is no way it continue to grow at the rate it's now growing. I think people over estimate the whole Chindia thing - USA is still the dominate economy in the world, if nothing else the last couple of weeks should show just how much influence the American market still has over ours.
I agree.
No mention of the Chindia factor??????????????
While I agree that the Chindia thing will provide opportunities over the next decade if the US economy starts to seriously falter it will have an effect on China imo. China will to some extent feed off itself with internal growth but without other countries consuming Chinas exports there is no way it continue to grow at the rate it's now growing. I think people over estimate the whole Chindia thing - USA is still the dominate economy in the world, if nothing else the last couple of weeks should show just how much influence the American market still has over ours.
I agree.