XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Looks like the Feb 28 picture, and we know what happened there. It just bounced. I think we're dependant on sub prime debacle announcements atm. No bad news, and back up. Bad news, and..........

Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!

UPKA · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!

RIO is a different story, but due to its weight its bringing down the resources sector, and Ni fell below US$30k/t, hope things will recover on monday!

Trembling Hand · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

UPKA said:
RIO is a different story, but due to its weight its bringing down the resources sector, and Ni fell below US$30k/t, hope things will recover on monday!

Exactly. A different story. Another story! Not just sub prime. Cost problems. From RIO,

"Underlying earnings for the half fell 6% to US$3.53 billion from US$3.75 billion in the first half of 2006, coming in below market expectations of US$3.7 billion. "

Add to the sub prime; Cost problems, removal of the takeover premium (have a look at AWC, STO, CGJ), credit problems leaking into Aussie wealth management sector.

My point is don't look at just yesterdays problems. There may well be more that you have to think about?

Oh. add to that. Some good old Fashion sell the news after reports

Kauri · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CanOz said:
This is the XJO but you get the idea...

Any takers for this scenario?

Cheers,

Cannie,
I see it pretty much the same way at the moment.
Cheers
..............Kauri

tech/a · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

In the short term I'm a little different.
I think this is a stronger move than thought.
I'm looking for a larger pattern here,than previous "corrections"
So rather than a 3 wave I'm looking more at a 5 wave initial corrective move.
Of which this is the start.
This is an XAO chart.

Sean K · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Really, watch RIO today and spin that one as sub prime for me!

Can you expand on that TH. And why the hostility?

Trembling Hand · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Can you expand on that TH. And why the hostility?

Sorry no hostility was meant. Boy do I need some sleep. Maybe I'm getting delirious after trading all day and night for a week!! :screwy:
Some how the game changed last week. The reason for the trigger was Sub prime but there is other problems out there and spreading.

Rio Tinto said the cost pressures affecting the entire mining industry carved US$503 million from earnings while rising commodity prices added US$513 million and increased volumes boosted earnings by US$302 million.

The Feb correction looked like a correction and played out like one. Up down then back up on unwinding of hot money ie. China, commodities, carry trade etc.
This one has been a 3 month consolidation then a big down side break after some serious distribution in the Financials. That is Different we have not had that kind of stealthy distribution since the start of the bull run 03.

Yes the Sub prime mess is baked into this market but I have some worries about the Materials selling off after their reports and really that's all that has held us up the last 3 months.

wavepicker · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

I am looking for this index to move higher from here(assuming a low is in place, and if it's not, it's close)

If one draws an ascending straight line along the lows of the last major consolidation of the uptrend and extended it into the future, that is where I would be looking. That coincides with 6300-6350.

Looking also at the chart attached, the market has reached a lower extreme of the cycle such that it only has a very small probability of staying at in the near future. A rally back to the nominal level being the pink line (90 day MA representing the 90 day cycle) that runs through the centre of the price action. Such a target is quite probable(based on earlier extremes either bullish or bearish in the past)

I have a point in time for this for 13-14th August, but not 100% sure of these dates as yet.

Cheers

Trembling Hand · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
I am looking for this index to move higher from here(assuming a low is in place, and if it's not, it's close)

I don't think many would be surprised with some sort of snap back rally but are you saying you expect something more than that?

wavepicker · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
I don't think many would be surprised with some sort of snap back rally but are you saying you expect something more than that?

I am saying I am expecting a move back to the range I quoted, then to continue bearishly, assuming this move is a countertrend.

chops_a_must · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, it's falling off a cliff at the moment...

numbercruncher · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

No need to fear, the Plunge Protection Team is at work

gfresh · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

They're pumping furiously on two continents right now..

We had the US last night and the night before make a late day charge, and we've had a V curve on the ASX last two days as well. Question is, will there be a Friday afternoon selloff?

insider · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?

powerkoala · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?

Really good question. Until now, i am still wondering what is really going on here? Correction due to subprime mortgage concern??? But DOW already rebound in 2 days, yet our market still in negatif sentiment area.
Nikkei maybe down due to political problems and subprime concern, but ASX??
I thought only Macquire got this problems, or I might be wrong.

theasxgorilla · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
It's intereting to see that the XAO the Hangseng, Nikkei, Shangai markets etc. have fallen more than the Dow Jones during this correction... What Surprises me is why does an American problem influence the world more than it's own economy?

Take a look at the DJIA on a chart compared with the indexes you just mentioned (not including Shanghai). Its price action doesn't look the same. Its a very unusual index. Only the 30 largest companies are included and it is price weighted, which means that a $1 move in $20 stock can be offset by a $1 fall in a $100 stock, even though the relative % changes are vastly different. This guy did some good analysis of why its a pretty poor index:

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-6.html

The US market overall is better represented by the S&P500, IMO.

theasxgorilla · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I'm looking for a larger pattern here,than previous "corrections"
So rather than a 3 wave I'm looking more at a 5 wave initial corrective move.

If you are correct, and my understanding of EW is still okay, then a 5-wave impulse move down to complete the A (as yet incomplete) would be very telling.

WavePicker...is there any chance of seeing the cycles chart you posted with a log price scale?

I see what its showing but I wonder if it makes this probe below the bottom of the bands look excessive compared with other (so-called) corrections due to the flat price scale?

ASX.G

Pat · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Take a look at the DJIA on a chart compared with the indexes you just mentioned (not including Shanghai). Its price action doesn't look the same. Its a very unusual index. Only the 30 largest companies are included and it is price weighted, which means that a $1 move in $20 stock can be offset by a $1 fall in a $100 stock, even though the relative % changes are vastly different. This guy did some good analysis of why its a pretty poor index:

http://www.bullnotbull.com/archive/stocks-6.html

The US market overall is better represented by the S&P500, IMO.

Gorilla I have always questioned myself as to why the DJIA consits of only 30 co's. Why is the media is so concerned with the DOW? And how 30 co's can (losely) represent the US market?

wayneL · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Pat said:
Gorilla I have always questioned myself as to why the DJIA consits of only 30 co's. Why is the media is so concerned with the DOW? And how 30 co's can (losely) represent the US market?

The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.

S&P 500 is what you should look at.

Pat · 3 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
The DOW is only for muppets. That's why the media uses it.

S&P 500 is what you should look at.

I can certainly see the similarities between the XAO and S & P 500 (does it make sense to call the S & P 500 the OEX? ), in the last 6 months the XAO is almost a mirror of the S & P 500.
Also, who came up with "standard and poors"? I could think of better names...

XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand

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UPKA

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Trembling Hand

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Kauri

E/W Learner

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tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

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Sean K

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Trembling Hand

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wavepicker

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Trembling Hand

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wavepicker

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

gfresh

insider

powerkoala

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Pat

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Pat

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XAO Technical Analysis

Can be found on the bid

Let the money work for you!

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E/W Learner

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No Ordinary Duck

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Moderator

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Printing My Own Money

Beware of Dropbears

Problem solved... next bubble.

Problem solved... next bubble.

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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