XAO Technical Analysis

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Wow

Based on wave 3 being approx 1.618 of wave 1 that makes Wave 3 at around 8305 or around a 3250 pt Bull Run.
Must check that GFC thing again!

I took a bit of guidance from the US markets and some FA analysis, especially that they have made recent higher highs of late as we have faded.

I put that down to the currency/trade war the US has been waging with adverse effects on our export trade. I can't see the US keeping the war up for too long or even wanting it for too long because of the extra import costs it will impose on their import reliant economy.

I'm becoming more confident that the US has lost the fight on the USD for the time being and assuming they have all learnt something in recent years and are keeping a close eye on the ball, but let the market rule, we should see our terms of trade improve in the near future.

In that scenerio, a larger degree wave 3 up for the XAO with a bit of gusto is my plan A.

Whether that is a wave 3 or (c) up, doesn't worry me for the time being cos it will be a good trade with conformation, or not relatively soon.

Anyway, I've put my money where my mouth is and picked up my first' bottom pick' for this cycle today.

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

For what it's worth:

I will be going long if the US holds into the close. Our bounce of resistance on higher volume would suggest that should this be a correction in part of a larger up move, now is a good time to enter.

I would've preferred had this been an A-B-C decline and as such will only be going half my position size.

Exactly. Ireland will sort it out, Kimmy will go back into hiding, FBI probe is now becoming old news. And we are in a bull market from the mid year lows.

Last 2 weeks have just been a correction in a bull market. The bears got lucky with a run of bad news.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some critical support areas.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Note lower swing highs and lows , trend is down . 4600 area support on daily . we have gone under and are now retesting from below . geometry and structure still bearish whilst circled reference swing highs aren’t breached , retrace from here giving a higher swing low would give bulls hope . once reference points are broken we re-evaluate analysis . markets are dynamic and so should our opinions be

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Probabily finish on a high here today or monday from the dubious projection of my 5m EW count into the daily time frame... before a correction, test of support next week.

Since we're all psyched out on candle formations this week, I'll tthrow in a more detailed candle stick analysis.

That Hammer on the bottom of the daily chart having a quite long handle suggests sellers were at least temporairly defeated. The next Doji reflects some indecision and todays Shooting Star suggesting a little weakness, but tempered because it's sitting on only a minor bull run.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ooops, was watching the XMM and XMJ for short term direction and took my eye off the damn XNJ ... until the bludy thing gave we a bit of a flesh wound in the foot : draging the XAO down a bit before rebounding on the close.

So, the shooting start on the daily is a tad more defined now, but the Three Black Crows on the Weekly are not as strong as they could have been, the third crow is a bit weak.

Actually it was the Financials XAF that I don't normally watch closely, that dragged the XAO down most. The XAF weekly chart is almost a carbon copy of the XAO. Damn, those bludy financials spoiling the party again!

Albeit the last Black Crow is a bit tired, there is nothing in sight to shoo the bastards away and the daily chook is getting quite a bit anxious about sticking it's neck out too far for fear of one of those Black Crows pinching more of their hard earned eggs... I guess the risk of a bit bigger attack on the farm eggs or at least the farm wallet if the Financials are getting a bit tight arsed, is still there until some one takes some decisive action to protect and support the farm chicken coop that lays the golden eggs... or the crows get flatterned by an Engulfing Bull or cared off by Three White Soldies, a Piercing Line through the heart or simply the sight of a decent (old fashioned head donging war) Hammer.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

This is what I was expecting, eer hoping would happen... the AUD fall sooner than commodities, in particular mining, as reflected in the USD POG.

If both H&S's come off this time they both should correct between 5 to 7% leaving the Aus market about status quo in terms of net prices and ahead of the US who will suffer a disproportionate real drop in price and earnings, assuming the USDX rises more than commodities fall, thanks to a bit of worry with the PIIGS and North Korea.

That would leave us nicely on cue (after this little correction has settled out) to catch up to the rate of increase of the US markets for a bit, till we see when they will correct and how much.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

This stalling behaviour near support doesn't feel so good.

The market won't bid anything up from here, it's just a matter of whether it will allow further falls past support.

The buying would have to be very strong across the board for XAO to start an upwards leg, and it can't happen from where it is now. So it's more sideways action or down.

IMO.

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Agree GB I think the percentage play here is to plan for the next move being down. It's much more pronounced in Europe and the US, but I can't see the XAO bucking the trend if these bourses show weakness.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Critical support is still holding so wouldnt go Duck hunting yet.

 

[ginar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Critical support is still holding so wouldnt go Duck hunting yet.

Yeah at the crossroads so nothing definative atm . we got GDP tommorow so i think we wait for that . lots of earnings dgrades lately so i wouldnt be surprised if that comes in below 0.5% consensus QoQ . AUD strength wont help either . anyway ill just follow price action regardless of numbers . Be cautious out there

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Where'd all the bears go?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

I still don't like the look of it broadway. Seems like too weak a base to pile on 50-60 points like it has. So I'm betting today's gains get eaten up this afternoon or tomorrow.

But I'll be ready to flip if I'm wrong! :

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree things are looking rather cheery all of a sudden, but there is some rising support we've moved up off.

Certainly not 100% convinced, but it doesn't look too bad either.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Make that 70+ points!

Currently very few trading opportunities seem to be appearing, meaning short term traders are also wanting confirmation. Can't see any good breakouts apart from SAR.

I reckon if 5 or more good set ups appear near close, that might be a good enough reason for me to feel differently.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree things are looking rather cheery all of a sudden, but there is some rising support we've moved up off.

Certainly not 100% convinced, but it doesn't look too bad either.

Yeah, I'm a bit more comfortable this correction may be over. A couple of good Hammers there to bounce off support on the daily.

As noted earlier, that third Black Crow on the weekly looked a bit tired ... and there is an Engulfing Bull there now immediatly countering and stomping all over it... and even if it corrects back a little tomorrow (less than half the previous week candle) it will still be a Piercing Line... I gues like a little bull giving a sharp prick of a new little horn... just to say lookout, I'm here and I'm fiesty

Not definitive signs in there own right, but it correlates with better FA data from the US and growing evidence that the Aus economy is not growing as fast as the RAB anticipated and growing indications that they got that last rate rise wrong and won't increase again for a prolonged period.

Also that ther has been significant divergance in the performance of our markets since the GFC. I suggest the US had a vested interest in manipulating their market to get the best out of the sale of their floats of shares bought in the GFC, like GM.

There has also been significant AUD divergance to the USD price of commodities, I think mainly as a result of the US trade/currency war as indicated earlier with the USD/EUR and the USDX charts giving signs of reversal some time ago, but countered (by US manipulation?) to increase that divergance further to unsustainable levels. That divergance is showing signs of weakening and as it does translates into better returns for our export, mining and associated industries in particular.

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

4 perfect contact points on the 3 year logarithmic.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bouncing off the 4600 region looks very significant to me.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

Bouncing off the 4600 region looks very significant to me.

I knew you were a closet EW experimenter kennas, you picked that W.4 just nicely.
You would now agree that around 5000 is a potential W.5 target projection

(click to expand)

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

US treasuries seem to be rising after the bad jobs number on friday night.
1225 in the ES was the high we reached before the europe crisis early this year.
Might provide some resistance to the markets.