XAO Technical Analysis

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure what the retail sales figures are in the media, but at street level, I've heard of a number of successful businesses reporting sales figures off by up to one half in the last 6-12 months. These are very successful long term businesses that didn't suffer at all during the GFC. And now they are.

The Christmas sales figures will be very telling this year I think. I just don't get the feeling people are buying at all. I blame the astronomical rise in the cost of living (food and utilities, especially electricity).

Watching for 3 red days with successive higher volume. O'Neill likes these as markers of big downwards turn. They have been pretty reliable, however the last ones in mid May were short lived.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

edit: that's small Melbourne businesses, discretionary retail, successful over the long term - now showing strong dowturns. Big business may be a different story, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Cinemas, cafes and nightclubs are supposedly where spending cuts are seen first. What are people seeing out there? Tell us what city you're in.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure what the retail sales figures are in the media, but at street level, I've heard of a number of successful businesses reporting sales figures off by up to one half in the last 6-12 months. These are very successful long term businesses that didn't suffer at all during the GFC. And now they are.

The Christmas sales figures will be very telling this year I think. I just don't get the feeling people are buying at all. I blame the astronomical rise in the cost of living (food and utilities, especially electricity).

Watching for 3 red days with successive higher volume. O'Neill likes these as markers of big downwards turn. They have been pretty reliable, however the last ones in mid May were short lived.

The october nab business survey link from my earlier post (8396 I think) mentioned something similar, in part:

National Australia Bank Ltd's monthly business survey said significant falls were registered in trading and profitability, leaving the "nascent recovery" recorded in the September survey "on hold".

Profitability was negative for the first time in more than two years, the survey said​

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks whiskers. Tricky situation. There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession. This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.

 

[lusk]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks whiskers. Tricky situation. There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession. This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.

I wouldn't bet against it, who would have thought they'd hand out cash in the first place

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Struth, often one can't get enough 'signs' about where the market is going, but it seems to me we now have a Pennant Flag, (albeit it only a day and a half inside trading) on top of the Dark Cloud and Three Black Crows. What do yer rockon about this little succession of signs? Is this a sign or what!?

Ignoring my tentative EW count these latest signs with the turnaround here yesterday and over 1% falls in the US overnight seem to point to a test of recent support levels and my 50% retracement (from the August low) just below.

If my EW count is correct we have a wave III complete and the question is are we heading into a wave four or the start of that dreaded larger degree wave 'C' that the doomsdayers reckon is coming, down to who knows where ?

PS: I hope all you guys that have been busy in the "Potential Breakout Alerts" thread are watching your backs.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers I haven't read Nison Candle stick trading or know anything about EW or even Pennant Flaggy thingos but are you calling a significant top is in?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers I haven't read Nison Candle stick trading or know anything about EW or even Pennant Flaggy thingos but are you calling a significant top is in?

Depends on how much you consider as significant. My best estimation atm is that we will test that support and probably carry on a little slow Bull, or let's say 'Bull Calf' market.

I haven't mastered EW by any means, but based on FA mostly including a bit of market psychology , if that TA pattern happens, it seems to be setting up a larger degree Diagional Triangle pattern which would be consistant with my FA... a slower Bull (calf) market for some time yet.

But I'm all ears if some one can convince me I've got these signs all wrong.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks whiskers. Tricky situation. There won't be any handouts (stimuli) to stave off another recession. This time it will be up to us consumers to stimulate ourselves.

I wouldn't bet against it, who would have thought they'd hand out cash in the first place

I'd be surprised if Australia would do another stimulus handout. With parity of the aud$ to the u.s$ too much of it would go overseas.

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

Struth, often one can't get enough 'signs' about where the market is going, but it seems to me we now have a Pennant Flag, (albeit it only a day and a half inside trading) on top of the Dark Cloud and Three Black Crows. What do yer rockon about this little succession of signs? Is this a sign or what!?

Can't you argue that similiar candle patterns were observed in end of Sept/early Oct?

Dark cloud, 3 black crows, pennant...Until it broke upwards. Or perhaps they are not perfect examples of these candle patterns.

Sure looks like we are taking a breather, but it might be pretty short and sweet. That $600B can't just sit there...

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous...And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely...

Thought I'd revisit the long term chart from the Sept post. Still looks bullish to me. However I'd be more than happy to see a near term retracement, so I could do some re-balancing. So get to work you Bears.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Can't you argue that similiar candle patterns were observed in end of Sept/early Oct?

Dark cloud, 3 black crows, pennant...Until it broke upwards. Or perhaps they are not perfect examples of these candle patterns.

Sure looks like we are taking a breather, but it might be pretty short and sweet. That $600B can't just sit there...

skc, I have to admit I was thinking along the same lines at that point. That's when I was starting to expect a retracement even though the pattern wasn't strictly right.

Firstly the dark cloud... it must appear in a clear uptrend. The first candle must be a long up candle and the second must open higher but close at least half way down the first candle.

Similarly with the Three Black Crows, the stronger the bull run the better the signal. There will be many cases of three lower highs and lower lows in a bear or choppy market.

With your pennant query, he green candle retraced too far for me. The reason I liked my pennant is because the trading was always inside the previous days candle until it broke down... a good sign for me with such a small scale pennant.

Interestingly, but probably not surprisingly it recovered a little to close pretty much on the uptrend line.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Firstly the dark cloud... it must appear in a clear uptrend. The first candle must be a long up candle and the second must open higher but close at least half way down the first candle.

Similarly with the Three Black Crows, the stronger the bull run the better the signal. There will be many cases of three lower highs and lower lows in a bear or choppy market.

So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?

or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?

or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?

dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens

Mate give them some rope to play with before ya pull it tight.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: XAO Analysis

Stats on 3 black crows = 76% chance reversal (American markets anyway). See here for details.

http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Stats on 3 black crows = 76% chance reversal (American markets anyway). See here for details.

http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeBlackCrows.html

of it trading under the lowest candle. But thats hardly 76% chance of a good R:R trade that you can apply. Is it?

This quote is along my thinking,

A check of the performance over 10 days shows some startling results: Do not trade this if the breakout is downward. Only upward breakouts are worth considering. If you remove the 10 day restriction, then the worst performance comes from three black crows in a bull market, regardless of the breakout direction.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?

or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?

There is a great deal of % information bandied about on various technical
"setups" From Elliot to Candlesticks to Conventional and not forgetting VSA.

Checking these reported results is nigh impossible. Yet many blindly follow singular setups and wonder why they dint get a similar result.
Reason 1 is the result is not correct.
2 is there are other considerations.

I have a small group who in time will be testing most setups rigorously under auditable conditions. The results will be interesting.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

dunno bout that cloud cover thing, but I do know just enough about 3 consecutive down candles on the XAO to know that I wouldn't be getting short on a regular basis after it happens

No, I wouldn't in isolation either, prof. For me it's not about hanging everything on a single sign or signal, TA or FA, but weighing up the sum of all the signals.

Btw, actually it's probably not a strict 'Three Black Crows' since they actually should have opened higher than the previous close... but don't tell TH or I'll be running from a lynching party.

But since the markets have become automated and faster since these techniques were originally developed, I think one needs to look for the 'psychology' behind the configuration more than the strict geometry.

So says chandle stick myth. But do you know the stats on this set up?

or is it like the famed H & S? Running at 16% correct out come?

TH, mate... how many times have I emphasised context in the past. :

It's just one tool TH (I did say sign), amongst many to gel into market analysis and risk management. You should note, in my full estimation I had earlier mentioned what looked like a bigger picture Diag Triangle EW pattern with a breakout above to finish off. The Dark Cloud supported that and my FA. The Black Crows while not technically perfect, seemed to fit for all intention purposes... and then the little pennant broke down, but maybe a bigger pennant is not complete yet, since although it has nudged through my uptrend line it want's to bounce off 4,767 atm.

The bottom line for me though is the market action today, while not absolutely confirming my current analysis, hasn't in any way contributed to disproving it. So I'm still erring on the side of caution and thinking short and waiting for a 'sign' of bullishness to return.

PS: techa, you summed up what I was trying to get at, nicely.

There is a great deal of % information bandied about on various technical
"setups" From Elliot to Candlesticks to Conventional and not forgetting VSA.
Checking these reported results is nigh impossible. Yet many blindly follow singular setups and wonder why they dint get a similar result.
Reason 1 is the result is not correct.
2 is there are other considerations.

I have a small group who in time will be testing most setups rigorously under auditable conditions. The results will be interesting.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep as i thought whiskers. Carry on mate.

I guess you also have the 23% drop in sugar in two days to worry about. Weren't you telling us how thats a significant driver of the Australia economy?