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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
October shouldn't be dread. Seasonality shows that we are in for a few good months. Was promising that we got through September unscathed. [

Good monthly stats here:

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-sp500-average-monthly-change
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Not out of sept yet, Sammy. ;)

Julia said:
A comment from Colin Twiggs which caught my eye:
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kash said:
Quote:
Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me

Just tell us which way you go so we can do the opposite.:)
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My tip :2twocents ... a little wave 'c' to finish off Sept Qtr as all those fund managers panic to lock in some profits... bottom line value as opposed to just pushing up book value, while the mid and low caps are getting a bit of attention. :cool:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
My tip :2twocents ... a little wave 'c' to finish off Sept Qtr as all those fund managers panic to lock in some profits...
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We won't know for sure until next week, but yes I think there is something in that Whiskers. I'm a little anxious about some of my good performers this month. Making no comment on the medium term, which is unclear to me.

My read on world markets is that there is vulnerability to a near term correction.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Might be setting myself up for a fall here but I am still relatively bullish even in light of the price action the past few days.

There was some type A bearish divergence on the XAO a few days ago that has given us a slight dip, nevertheless I am not yet worried.

AUD, Hang Seng, Russell 2000, XAO small ords and energy stocks are all bullish. The risk trade is on.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Follow up to my previous post...
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=580702&postcount=8343

Note that the chart is the XJO.

Area of resistance had its effect, its now in a no mans land, does it retrace to sub 4500 first or does it reverse and break through 4700 and continue to just below 5000.

Stops adjusted, watch and wait, my :2twocents

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Re: XAO Analysis

Holding above the old resistance zone spells high potential for the bottom to have been found and sideways to up movement from here. Bets off when 4500 goes.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Holding above the old resistance zone spells high potential for the bottom to have been found and sideways to up movement from here. Bets off when 4500 goes.
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Sorry to spoil the party but it just follows the Dow. Market in Australia does not think, we follow blindly.

The Dow for the same period as in your post Kennas. I think the Dow is going to go down soon too. Fundamantals are bad over there IMV.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
...we follow blindly.
...
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https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=487242#post487242

at the top of that page someone has done the research for you....

as a side note you'll also see that the xjo has out perforned the spx on many ocassions (to the upside) and is in a different long-term bull market, has a propensity to higher inflationary pressures on its assets whereas the US is in a deflationary cycle.....

so, even on a long scale basis you can prove a following, you still have to trade the trend as it presents in the moment and with the xjo having a larger gain over and above the spx on year over year basis and most managers have to have a long-side exposure, where would place your bets?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Joules MM1 said:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=487242#post487242

at the top of that page someone has done the research for you....

as a side note you'll also see that the xjo has out perforned the spx on many ocassions (to the upside) and is in a different long-term bull market, has a propensity to higher inflationary pressures on its assets whereas the US is in a deflationary cycle.....

so, even on a long scale basis you can prove a following, you still have to trade the trend as it presents in the moment and with the xjo having a larger gain over and above the spx on year over year basis and most managers have to have a long-side exposure, where would place your bets?
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Today we followd the Dow as we do most other days. You can rule up all the variables in the world. but we follow like the blind sheep.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Getting a little nervous today. Didn't like the AUD sharp rejection off 99c. There is also type A bearish divergence on a few indicies. I'm tightening stops today. Still believe we are going to test 5000, but might be a breather in store.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Currently the DOW is up 5.7% for the year.

The XAO is down 3.3% :banghead:

DOW futures again looking healthy for tonights session.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dow closed up 75.68 losing a little ground in the closing stages to close at 11096. Yesterday we finished the session up 4.8 points to close on 4691.

If we were following the dow, we would be closer to 5500 on the pre GFC comparison or 5000 on the recovery from March 2009 to November 2009 comparison.

I think the Dow is inflated atm, only problem is, when their bubble bursts it will bring everyone down again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, with China increasing interest rates it seems to have triggered the correction that we all knew was coming with currencies and commodities and flow through to the share market.

I think I got my "b" a bit early before, but I'm happy that it's in now, with an Expanded Flat correction, wave 'b' building up the slingshot tension for a 'c' drive towards 4,500.

Gees, I hope I got it right, :eek:... cos I've been on the sidelines for a few days waiting... and waiting to get back into stocks at lower prices. :cool:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, with China increasing interest rates it seems to have triggered the correction that we all knew was coming with currencies and commodities and flow through to the share market.

I think I got my "b" a bit early before, but I'm happy that it's in now, with an Expanded Flat correction, wave 'b' building up the slingshot tension for a 'c' drive towards 4,500.

Gees, I hope I got it right, :eek:... cos I've been on the sidelines for a few days waiting... and waiting to get back into stocks at lower prices. :cool:
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Can you pls post up a chart? I would've thought your wave C would be a move up?
 
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