XAO Technical Analysis

Whiskers · 21 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
Can you pls post up a chart? I would've thought your wave C would be a move up?

jonojpsg said:
I think he's referring to chart in post 8361 above aren't you whiskers?

Yeah, I'm still happy with a Diag Triangle pattern for 'i' up, rather than a corrective Triangle... but as I mentioned I think I was a bit premature with my 'b', given that I am looking for a larger degree correction.

Given the EW experts say a wave two correction is often short and sharp, although one would usually associate that with a zig zag, it looks to me like a stock market correction will be more a currency based/triggered realignment to the trade and curency wars than any other fundamentals, hence the reason I use the rubber band analogy for an Expanded Flat correction.

Sean K · 21 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

4600 should be decent support now you'd think so will be some task to break to the lower side.

Whiskers · 21 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
4600 should be decent support now you'd think so will be some task to break to the lower side.

Yeah, that's true, but I'd expect a bit of an over reaction though given the amount of pent up anxiety about the currency/trade war... a spike down to 4,550ish in the next few days would still be about the uptrend (support) line and be near 161% to make my Expanded Flat correction scenerio valid, before continuing the uptrend.

Sean K · 22 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
a spike down to 4,550ish in the next few days would still be about the uptrend (support) line and be near 161% to make my Expanded Flat correction scenerio valid, before continuing the uptrend.

4500-600 firming up imo.

Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.

Whiskers · 22 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
4500-600 firming up imo.

Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.

I was watching the close, closely today on the 5 min chart... after I noticed what looked like a ivth wave Diagonal finish off... and to my expectation, but surprise, (I'd have stayed out of the market) it pushed up through the top of a Diagonal Triangle to what looks like pretty much wave 'v'... which seems to me to be the completion of a reversal correction from Wednesdays low.

In other words, I'm expecting we will be heading lower or at least close lower on Monday.

Mind you this EW stuff is pretty vague and often hard (for me at least ) to get right first time... but this one looks too tempting to not call.

C'mon all yer EW guys... what do yer think?

skc · 22 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
4500-600 firming up imo.

Fundamentally, the only risk is if QE2 is well under expectations. Market's factoring in $500m - $1t, I think.

I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.

So a run up until QE2 announcement (what's the exact date?)... then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:

"Market falls on doubts that QE2 will work"
"Bigger than expected QE2 points to signficiant economic downside"

Whiskers · 22 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

skc said:
I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.

So a run up until QE2 announcement (what's the exact date?)... then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:

"Market falls on doubts that QE2 will work"
"Bigger than expected QE2 points to signficiant economic downside"

I think they will wait until after the 3rd qtr GDP (I think Friday 29th) and maybe the next FOMC on 3rd Nov... the day after their mid term elections, for an announcement. I suspect they would want a bit more data and want to avoid an announcement on the eve of their elections... wouldn't they!?

PS: Given our RBA meeting is for Nov 2nd also, and there seems to be a turnaround started in the AUD/USD and a strengthening USD generally, my bet is they will hold off any rate increase for a bit longer to see how that pans out.

jonojpsg · 23 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
I think they will wait until after the 3rd qtr GDP (I think Friday 29th) and maybe the next FOMC on 3rd Nov... the day after their mid term elections, for an announcement. I suspect they would want a bit more data and want to avoid an announcement on the eve of their elections... wouldn't they!?

PS: Given our RBA meeting is for Nov 2nd also, and there seems to be a turnaround started in the AUD/USD and a strengthening USD generally, my bet is they will hold off any rate increase for a bit longer to see how that pans out.

So short on Tuesday Nov 2 then in anticipation of the downward move - keeping stops tight of course

Whiskers · 27 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

CPI came in at .7%... lower end of forecasts.

AUD did a dip... now what's the XAO going to do?

Broadway · 27 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like it was a fun day on the SFE.
Anyone know whats been going on?
I just got back from work so missed most of it.
So let me get this right...
Spi opens up a little after the ES gets supported and NAB does well, 1130 hits with less than expected cpi, AUD crashes, rate hikes less likely, and the SFE collapses for some unknown reason. Then they open with a preopen auction system at 1.10pm where the spi is close to where it was before the computers crashed, but proceeds to slide 50 points as people panic because they dont want to hold longs while the sfe is in a glitchy state.
But then volume kicks in, because sentiment and funds are pushing north, and maybe its just all a good buying opportunity.

Good fun me thinks

UPKA · 27 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Looks like it was a fun day on the SFE.
Anyone know whats been going on?
I just got back from work so missed most of it.
So let me get this right...
Spi opens up a little after the ES gets supported and NAB does well, 1130 hits with less than expected cpi, AUD crashes, rate hikes less likely, and the SFE collapses for some unknown reason. Then they open with a preopen auction system at 1.10pm where the spi is close to where it was before the computers crashed, but proceeds to slide 50 points as people panic because they dont want to hold longs while the sfe is in a glitchy state.
But then volume kicks in, because sentiment and funds are pushing north, and maybe its just all a good buying opportunity.

Good fun me thinks

ASX Trade 24, or the old SFE sycom system was down for half the day, got backup around 130pm. i guess its mainly traders hedging their XAO positions on AP pushed the market straight down...

Also there's news that beijing is cracking down on illegal capital flows, which may limit the amount of funds going overseas, meaning we'll see less and less of the chinese money into australia?

Whiskers · 27 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

skc said:
I get this feeling that we will have buy the rumour sell the fact.

So a run up until QE2 announcement (what's the exact date ?)... then after the announcement, the headline will read something like:

"Market falls on doubts that QE2 will work"
"Bigger than expected QE2 points to signficiant economic downside"

Just been reading an article that reflects my concern that the USD correction is over cooked and artifically driving commodity prices too high.

Something is going to break soon. T'Ãs a question of how much the surge in commodity prices (in particular) to near pre GFC highs is just exchange rate or inflated by speculation on the USD weakness.

This is one hell of a balancing act they're trying to pull off... and the longer it goes on the more I think it may rebound or recoil (in the case of commodities) with avengeance.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recov...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

Broadway · 28 October 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
But then volume kicks in, because sentiment and funds are pushing north, and maybe its just all a good buying opportunity.

Volume...

Whiskers · 2 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

I wish the RBA didn't lift the rate .25 to 4.75 today!

This so called prudent "early, modest tightening" seems more like a gamble to me.

I think they got it wrong, with so many areas of the economy slowing or flat and puting too much emphasis on our improving terms of trade, which is clearly at the mercy of the USD trade/currency wars.

On the TA I have modified my EW count a little in light of the XAO defying gravity and MACD Divergance of late, but still see a significant correction coming.

tech/a · 2 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO Weekly
In No mans land

Whiskers · 10 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Some wider than normal activity in the last couple of hours of US trading.

Is this finally the top I've been waiting for?

The nab October busines survey http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ober-NA-pd20101109-B228L?OpenDocument&src=hp6 reports business conditions below trend and seems to support my earlier view that the RBA jumped the gun with it's so called prudent "early, modest tightening".

Whiskers · 11 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Just to try and dampen any enthusiasm (and try to make my prophecy come true from a modest recovery from the US overnight, I thought I'd mention the Dark Cloud heading up the Three Black Crows candlestick formation as of yesterdays close.

The breakout above the thin white line is consistant with a completing Diagonal Triangle pattern, but what is needed now is for the trend support about the heavy white line to be broken shortly.

Gringotts Bank · 11 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

I reckon we're heading for a thumping next week. Back to approx 4600-4700. If the big symmetrical triangle (yellow) gets busted to the downside it will spell disaster. Smaller channel in dark blue needs to be broken first.

My chart here - http://i51.tinypic.com/rc3axw.jpg

Logique · 11 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm very much on board with the propositions you put Whiskers and Gringotts, on your the charts above. Perhaps it's just my confirmation bias operating. Don't like the negative talk about the PIIGS nations in the press in recent days.

sammy84 · 11 November 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Seasonality has to be considered. November/December (Christmas rally) is usually a good time to be long.

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