XAO Technical Analysis

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Small end of town still leading the way. Shows for a healthy rally. AUD is also looking to break through that 94c mark .Looks like the risk trade is back for the time being.

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO, XJO, no matter which way you look at it we've got a higher high today, and a higher low on the way up to go with it. A lot of previous analysis should have been disproved today.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

New areas of potential resistance on the XJO.

(click to expand)

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

potential ending diagonal on ASX200, with macd divergence on the 4hr. will be interesting to see if this gold spike can pull Aussie higher today. suspect things'll be held up for opex on Friday before letting go

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo's chart depicts current state of play.
As pointed out by many other posters the threat of a return to a bear move has been currently averted.

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo's chart depicts current state of play.
As pointed out by many other posters the threat of a return to a bear move has been currently averted.

yer appears to be that way tech. ED still in play and this is still looking like an opex pump (US sitting around max pain), next week will likely see some selling

 

[Sunder]

Re: XAO Analysis

Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)

Can anyone explain to me:

1. Why options expiry forces share prices down

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?

 

[Miro]

Re: XAO Analysis

Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)

Can anyone explain to me:

1. Why options expiry forces share prices down

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?

1. Why options expiry forces share prices down
- this is not true, t just makes the market more volatile

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?
- don't believe in anything they say

 

[Edwood]

Re: XAO Analysis

Pretty much every analyst yesterday said it was just profit-taking, and not an end of a short sharp rally. Edwood here mentioned that it was pressure from options expiry. (I assume that's what Opex means?)

Can anyone explain to me:

1. Why options expiry forces share prices down

2. How analysts knew it was only profit taking, and not a change in sentiment?

yes opex = options expiry. The options writers want as many as possible to expire worthless. In effect it was profit taking. Next week we will likely see same in the US, but that's not a given

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

But I'm still favouring more sideways action so I think we will head back towards 4400 before any sort of breakout but an immediate push towards 5000 isn't out of the question - I just don't know if the market will have enough oomph to get through this area yet. I think we will see some weakness next week and just how the market reacts to that weakness will be telling. If some serious weakness does come in that attempt at 4200 in Sept/Oct is still a chance but is probably my least favoured scenario atm.

4600 to be tested here. Looks pivotal to me. If we break through, then 4500-600 should be support. Changes the game just a little I reckon. Makes 4200 look more bottominsh in this phase. But, if 4600 fails, even greater resistance and sideways to down bias.

I agree. I can't see it breaking 4200 on this leg down.

Looking a bit toppy to me.

Whether it's a Triangle wave 'í' or a Diagonal Triangle wave 'B', it looks to me like some corrective time coming up.

I'm going with a "i" top of a continuing uptrend rather than "B" of a more significant decine atm.

potential ending diagonal on ASX200, with macd divergence on the 4hr. will be interesting to see if this gold spike can pull Aussie higher today. suspect things'll be held up for opex on Friday before letting go

Spot on. Certainly let go now I think. I'm thinking 4570 ish for the 'a' leg down.

 

[wintermute]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi All, just thought I'd pop my head in... seems that whenever I get some renewed interest in the market of late (last time was in Jan) I pull out my old long term XAO chart and decide I should have not bothered

I posted back in Jan (not sure if here but definitely elsewhere) that I felt the bottom was going to likely be 3700 sometime in Dec this year.... well revisiting the chart I based that on certainly doesn't seem to be much different (except maybe I should have pushed that to Jan or Feb next year).. I think 4200 is optomistic

Of course I'm not basing this on anything other than a suspicion that we may be seeing a similar pattern to what ensued after the 87 crash... It is based purely on speculation that the market may go the same way, not on any fundamental analysis of economics or anything else.... just my interpretation of a few strategically placed lines on a chart.

Tony.

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous.

I think there is a good case on TA for saying that the cyclical bottom was in during 2009 at ~3400, and a recovery bottom earlier this year at ~4300.

And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely. So lets see if we can get through the dreaded month of October.

XAO chart under is all data quarterly.

 

[jonojpsg]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi All, just thought I'd pop my head in... seems that whenever I get some renewed interest in the market of late (last time was in Jan) I pull out my old long term XAO chart and decide I should have not bothered

I posted back in Jan (not sure if here but definitely elsewhere) that I felt the bottom was going to likely be 3700 sometime in Dec this year.... well revisiting the chart I based that on certainly doesn't seem to be much different (except maybe I should have pushed that to Jan or Feb next year).. I think 4200 is optomistic

Of course I'm not basing this on anything other than a suspicion that we may be seeing a similar pattern to what ensued after the 87 crash... It is based purely on speculation that the market may go the same way, not on any fundamental analysis of economics or anything else.... just my interpretation of a few strategically placed lines on a chart.

Tony.

Don't mind that analysis based in the chart, certainly the channel gives us some onwards and upwards indication though (albeit within a 2000 point range!). One point to note on a fundamental level when comparing post-87 with post-08 is the fact that Oz went into recession in 1990 which obviously shows in the dip back down to the bottom of the channel in 1991. Whether we dip again from now (or perhaps from around 5000 from the looks of the chart) depends IMO on whether the resources boom continues - which is to a large extent dependent on what happens in China - seems like this is going to be the defining factor in our fortunes over the coming years.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well I think the Bears have cause to be nervous.

I think there is a good case on TA for saying that the cyclical bottom was in during 2009 at ~3400, and a recovery bottom earlier this year at ~4300.

And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely. So lets see if we can get through the dreaded month of October.

XAO chart under is all data quarterly.

Logique mate,

Sometimes the closer you look, the harder it becomes. Bears are never nervous in late September.

I'm a great believer in Elliott Wave theory.

Have a look at the price/time in the first panel of your chart from a distance.

83-88 Wave 1
88 Wave 2
88-01 Wave 3
01-03 Wave 4
03-09 Wave 5

We are now in an ABC.

Lets C where C leaves us in the shakeout to come.

gg

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

]

And that 4900 by Christmas is entirely possible, if not likely. So lets see if we can get through the dreaded month of October.

XAO chart under is all data quarterly.

October shouldn't be dread. Seasonality shows that we are in for a few good months. Was promising that we got through September unscathed.

Good monthly stats here:

http://www.bullfax.com/?q=node-sp500-average-monthly-change

 

[wintermute]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't mind that analysis based in the chart, certainly the channel gives us some onwards and upwards indication though (albeit within a 2000 point range!). One point to note on a fundamental level when comparing post-87 with post-08 is the fact that Oz went into recession in 1990 which obviously shows in the dip back down to the bottom of the channel in 1991. Whether we dip again from now (or perhaps from around 5000 from the looks of the chart) depends IMO on whether the resources boom continues - which is to a large extent dependent on what happens in China - seems like this is going to be the defining factor in our fortunes over the coming years.

Hi Jonojpsg, certainly after a bit of a look at the shorter term daily and weekly charts there doesn't look like there is any indication that my dire prediction of 3700 in Dec seems likely (this was arrrived at by simply cloning the line from the 87 crash, so far it looks to have a reasonable correlation).

But I do think that another bounce off 5000 followed by a revisit of the lower line in the trend channel is likely the question is when? Looking at the weekly I think it is too early to say that we are on the way back to 5000, and even the daily I'm a bit ambilvalent about, neither look particularly good or bad to me.

Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me

Tony.

 

[Synergy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some lines...


Anyone think that upper line holds any real resistance?

 

[Julia]

Re: XAO Analysis

A comment from Colin Twiggs which caught my eye:

Stocks rally as we approach the end of the third quarter, but fund managers may be supporting prices to window-dress their balance sheets. Expect a mid-October retracement (as in 2007) to test the new support level.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: XAO Analysis

Some lines...


Anyone think that upper line holds any real resistance?

I don't think its realistic to look down from the top..looking up from the bottom makes more sense to me.
~

 

[kash]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quote:
Probably I'll hold on to everything as usual and it will crash, or I will decide to sell and it will set off on a full recovery, always seems to be the way with me

Just tell us which way you go so we can do the opposite.