XAO Technical Analysis
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tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Wet sail.
Still expect that positive retracement.
Wet sail.
Still expect that positive retracement.
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Re: XAO Analysis
See the S&P 500 thread under International Markets, I am dabbling in that using MTPredictor, due to the time zone I am in. Also, currently don't have data feed for SPI or I would post charts for that.
Not sure about it calling a bottom, but if I see it, I will post a chart for sure
See the S&P 500 thread under International Markets, I am dabbling in that using MTPredictor, due to the time zone I am in. Also, currently don't have data feed for SPI or I would post charts for that.
Not sure about it calling a bottom, but if I see it, I will post a chart for sure
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Re: XAO Analysis
On second thoughts, have you read this blog? There is more information there than you will ever need, but if you need more, go to the home page. They often hold webinars so you can see it in action, ask questions. As an owner of MTP, I can say that the support is second to none!
MTPredictor Blogspot
MTPredictor Homepage
On second thoughts, have you read this blog? There is more information there than you will ever need, but if you need more, go to the home page. They often hold webinars so you can see it in action, ask questions. As an owner of MTP, I can say that the support is second to none!
MTPredictor Blogspot
MTPredictor Homepage
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Snowman
I use Aget
Some features of Get are similar to MT
I have used and just used Gets Count to take a longer term short position on the SPI
Now closed.
If (1) in my RED labelled count is taken out then short I'll be again for wave 3
I cant see why for general direction you wouldnt use MT for trading the SPI.
This is a WEEKLY chart of the XJO
Click to expand
Snowman
I use Aget
Some features of Get are similar to MT
I have used and just used Gets Count to take a longer term short position on the SPI
Now closed.
If (1) in my RED labelled count is taken out then short I'll be again for wave 3
I cant see why for general direction you wouldnt use MT for trading the SPI.
This is a WEEKLY chart of the XJO
Click to expand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Tech, I'm not being a smart ass; but your above double negative is a little confusing. You're saying that in your opinion MT would be suitable for trading the SPI? If so, I wonder how it would measure up on a intraday period? Anyone able to comment?
Thanks for your insight into aget. I will definitely be checking it out for 'automating' Elliot wave identification. This along with research I subscribe too should be quite useful.
Your pending short entry on the SPI if/when it breaks below the (1) looks quite a good Risk/Reward trade as apposed to attempting to pick a top of the suspected weak/choppy rally What stop would be wise to use for such a trade? A % move against the opened short? Or some technical level based on the (1) and the (2)?
Once again, thanks for your continued input and discussion.
Tech, I'm not being a smart ass; but your above double negative is a little confusing. You're saying that in your opinion MT would be suitable for trading the SPI? If so, I wonder how it would measure up on a intraday period? Anyone able to comment?
Thanks for your insight into aget. I will definitely be checking it out for 'automating' Elliot wave identification. This along with research I subscribe too should be quite useful.
Your pending short entry on the SPI if/when it breaks below the (1) looks quite a good Risk/Reward trade as apposed to attempting to pick a top of the suspected weak/choppy rally What stop would be wise to use for such a trade? A % move against the opened short? Or some technical level based on the (1) and the (2)?
Once again, thanks for your continued input and discussion.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes As for general direction both Aget and M/T are looking at short.
This is what I mean re general direction.
I'm trading intraday after holding a short for quite a while.
My analysis is expecting a long rally (As in positive direction not length of time) before falling off again---harder.
The setup is for another longer term short.
However if the Retracement (When it arrives) indicates obvious weakness then I could be back in sooner.
Until then intraday it is.
I dont use Elliott intraday.
Yes As for general direction both Aget and M/T are looking at short.
This is what I mean re general direction.
I'm trading intraday after holding a short for quite a while.
My analysis is expecting a long rally (As in positive direction not length of time) before falling off again---harder.
The setup is for another longer term short.
However if the Retracement (When it arrives) indicates obvious weakness then I could be back in sooner.
Until then intraday it is.
I dont use Elliott intraday.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: XAO Analysis
I remember N. Radge also had a lower low forecast for 2011. Must be well back over a year ago now. Lost in the ASF archives somewhere but I think it was based on an Elliot Wave analysis.
I remember N. Radge also had a lower low forecast for 2011. Must be well back over a year ago now. Lost in the ASF archives somewhere but I think it was based on an Elliot Wave analysis.
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Re: XAO Analysis
tech/a,
can I ask which broker you use? And also which data feed / charting software?
I've been trading the Emini and am getting sick of the 11.30pm-6am hours, so I'm looking to make a switch to the SPI. Just curious as to what setup you have.
Thanks
tech/a,
can I ask which broker you use? And also which data feed / charting software?
I've been trading the Emini and am getting sick of the 11.30pm-6am hours, so I'm looking to make a switch to the SPI. Just curious as to what setup you have.
Thanks
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Broker IB
Software Tradeguider RT V4 (Volume spread analysis.)
Data E signal.
Been looking at FTSE 100 Future suits my timeline.
4-10pm.
AGET charts above are EOD
Just Data.
Broker IB
Software Tradeguider RT V4 (Volume spread analysis.)
Data E signal.
Been looking at FTSE 100 Future suits my timeline.
4-10pm.
AGET charts above are EOD
Just Data.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well by what I would classify as pure blind luck, (well maybe not completely blind) I managed to be Long Sep SPI @ 4207.
As of writing I'm 50 points in the money. Looking at the EOD chart for XAO/XJO I'm thinking it looks like a turning point. 10 down days, then todays up bar, closing well off the lows of the day.
My stop loss is a bee's appendage below todays XJO low of 4182.
Based on a 50% retracement of the last down leg, my target is ~4404. I'm considering making use of a trailing stop of some description once prices hit the 38.2% level of 4351.
In my mind a 38.2% - 50% retracement followed by the then ugly downturn.
I hope my mind is stronger this time to hang in there and not see me forego a 150+ point move in my favour like I did previsouly because I was scared of losing my open profit.
I then hope I can reverse this position from Long to short once this retracement is complete. Picking this next turning point; other than targeting the 38.2% - 50% retracement will be the biggest challenge I believe.
Well by what I would classify as pure blind luck, (well maybe not completely blind) I managed to be Long Sep SPI @ 4207.
As of writing I'm 50 points in the money. Looking at the EOD chart for XAO/XJO I'm thinking it looks like a turning point. 10 down days, then todays up bar, closing well off the lows of the day.
My stop loss is a bee's appendage below todays XJO low of 4182.
Based on a 50% retracement of the last down leg, my target is ~4404. I'm considering making use of a trailing stop of some description once prices hit the 38.2% level of 4351.
In my mind a 38.2% - 50% retracement followed by the then ugly downturn.
I hope my mind is stronger this time to hang in there and not see me forego a 150+ point move in my favour like I did previsouly because I was scared of losing my open profit.
I then hope I can reverse this position from Long to short once this retracement is complete. Picking this next turning point; other than targeting the 38.2% - 50% retracement will be the biggest challenge I believe.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Nice work Tech. A lazy 36 point profit! Not bad for a day in front of the screen!
If you don't mind disclosing, what strategy do you use for day trading the SPI? I've been medaling with trading A-B-C patterns but with out too much intraday luck.
My strategies have been;
-Waiting for an ABC pattern to complete and then entering long when the parabolic SaR is broken to the upside.
-Trading Swing highs/lows: So convert ABC, 12345 to XYZ then going long/short at the suspected bottom/top of the Y by using TTE.
I think I am trying to make patterns appear as apposed to waiting for 'clear' patterns to present and then trade.
Being 88 points in the money at the moment I think I'm better of trading on an EOD basis rather than staring at screen trying to make patterns appear. Either that, or I'm just lucky!
Must admit it's reassuring to hear and read guru's calling a short term bounce.
Nice work Tech. A lazy 36 point profit! Not bad for a day in front of the screen!
If you don't mind disclosing, what strategy do you use for day trading the SPI? I've been medaling with trading A-B-C patterns but with out too much intraday luck.
My strategies have been;
-Waiting for an ABC pattern to complete and then entering long when the parabolic SaR is broken to the upside.
-Trading Swing highs/lows: So convert ABC, 12345 to XYZ then going long/short at the suspected bottom/top of the Y by using TTE.
I think I am trying to make patterns appear as apposed to waiting for 'clear' patterns to present and then trade.
Being 88 points in the money at the moment I think I'm better of trading on an EOD basis rather than staring at screen trying to make patterns appear. Either that, or I'm just lucky!
Must admit it's reassuring to hear and read guru's calling a short term bounce.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Its on my desk, so I trade while I work.
Entry Support or resistance
Trade management Method VSA.
Exit VSA
I prefer long term myself and if you can get on the right side like you have then you should do well.
If its clear as crystal then I'll trade longer term hold over night and add contracts.
Right now its clear but not as crystal so I'm sleeping well.
If I was to hold---it would be long and with FTSE and DAX strong youll very likely be one happy puppy.
Its on my desk, so I trade while I work.
Entry Support or resistance
Trade management Method VSA.
Exit VSA
I prefer long term myself and if you can get on the right side like you have then you should do well.
If its clear as crystal then I'll trade longer term hold over night and add contracts.
Right now its clear but not as crystal so I'm sleeping well.
If I was to hold---it would be long and with FTSE and DAX strong youll very likely be one happy puppy.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Thanks for the insights Tech. VSA is yet another thing to investigate on my ever continuing to grow "to do" list.
As for my trade; well it is the most in the money I have ever been. I just hope I do the right thing. I'd kick myself if I either;
a)got nervous on a retracement and sold only to forgo more upside
b)hung on too long and lost the lot.
Thanks for the insights Tech. VSA is yet another thing to investigate on my ever continuing to grow "to do" list.
As for my trade; well it is the most in the money I have ever been. I just hope I do the right thing. I'd kick myself if I either;
a)got nervous on a retracement and sold only to forgo more upside
b)hung on too long and lost the lot.
Re: XAO Analysis
you can always halve your position if your not sure where its going, or scale your position size down as you see fit
you can always halve your position if your not sure where its going, or scale your position size down as you see fit
tech/a
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tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hint
Think in R multiple (multiples of risk).
This trade and every trade to come will have a risk to reward attached to it.
If the initial risk was 10 ticks and your now +100 you have 10:1 R/R on this trade.
Keep adding all the R multiples of loss V the R multiples of win.
Aim is to exceed accumulated loss multiples with accumulated win multiples.
If you do this getting out early or late is of no consequence in the whole scheme of trading.(Your trading business).
Yesterday at close when I exited I was happy---still am---- I will have left $$s on the table BUT my Reward to Risk is still very high.
Today's aim with any trades is to maximise reward to risk----
Small losses as big as possible wins.
Get used to being wrong---just don't stay wrong for long!
Hint
Think in R multiple (multiples of risk).
This trade and every trade to come will have a risk to reward attached to it.
If the initial risk was 10 ticks and your now +100 you have 10:1 R/R on this trade.
Keep adding all the R multiples of loss V the R multiples of win.
Aim is to exceed accumulated loss multiples with accumulated win multiples.
If you do this getting out early or late is of no consequence in the whole scheme of trading.(Your trading business).
Yesterday at close when I exited I was happy---still am---- I will have left $$s on the table BUT my Reward to Risk is still very high.
Today's aim with any trades is to maximise reward to risk----
Small losses as big as possible wins.
Get used to being wrong---just don't stay wrong for long!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Thanks Tech. I understand 100% what you are saying re. think in terms of R.
On the basis of the XJO making a 38.2% correction of it's advance from 4182 to 4292; I am now long an additional contract.
Also, the SPI has made a 61.8% correction of its advance in the last 24 hrs. This is another reason for my additional long.
Thanks Tech. I understand 100% what you are saying re. think in terms of R.
On the basis of the XJO making a 38.2% correction of it's advance from 4182 to 4292; I am now long an additional contract.
Also, the SPI has made a 61.8% correction of its advance in the last 24 hrs. This is another reason for my additional long.