Tanaka
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
The 50 day moving average knows all??? I prefer the 68 day average myself
A lot of people calling for renewed strength lower, a little bit of caution and keeping in mind a contrarian view can't hurt. Trading is never that easy.
The 50 day moving average knows all??? I prefer the 68 day average myself
A lot of people calling for renewed strength lower, a little bit of caution and keeping in mind a contrarian view can't hurt. Trading is never that easy.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
My update / take on current move.
A=C so that is copy book.
Expected completion of wave 5 at around 4100.
Highly likely (If it plays out that the Wave will extend to 3700 ish as it plays out a 5 wave pattern completing the 1st 5 waves down-3 waves (ABC) back up to correct then again down 5 to complete wave A of a larger pattern).
I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.
Click to expand
My update / take on current move.
A=C so that is copy book.
Expected completion of wave 5 at around 4100.
Highly likely (If it plays out that the Wave will extend to 3700 ish as it plays out a 5 wave pattern completing the 1st 5 waves down-3 waves (ABC) back up to correct then again down 5 to complete wave A of a larger pattern).
I have a short play on from 4598 and will be adding to it if the moves play out---stop 4640.
Click to expand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Worst case scenario perhaps from my post a month ago, is it still a possibility, the up leg played by the rules, sub 3800 if C = A ??
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=556429&postcount=8061
Worst case scenario perhaps from my post a month ago, is it still a possibility, the up leg played by the rules, sub 3800 if C = A ??
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=556429&postcount=8061
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Going to plan
160pts currently
Stop 4525
Havent added yet.
Going to plan
160pts currently
Stop 4525
Havent added yet.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes Broadway.
I feel this maybe an interim last gasp from holders who are frustrated with the falling market.
I note the US rallied hard after the Europe close but failed to finish in the black.
I'm expecting some positive correction very soon before the big falls.
CLICK TO EXPAND
ON Elliott.
While I dont think Elliott is pin point accurate I like to and do use it as a Direction finder/follower. Gives me something to expect and if it doesnt happen gives me an lternative expectation which I can anticipate.
Frankly I like the way it can alter counts. It paints the anticipated picture as it pans out and then gives another----often the anticipated picture turns out to be the ACTUAL picture like it has so far.---now of course having said that it will stuff up!
There are other forms of analysis (Range and volume) I find very helpful in managing a trade. Very Simple analysis.
Stop still 4525
Yes Broadway.
I feel this maybe an interim last gasp from holders who are frustrated with the falling market.
I note the US rallied hard after the Europe close but failed to finish in the black.
I'm expecting some positive correction very soon before the big falls.
CLICK TO EXPAND
ON Elliott.
While I dont think Elliott is pin point accurate I like to and do use it as a Direction finder/follower. Gives me something to expect and if it doesnt happen gives me an lternative expectation which I can anticipate.
Frankly I like the way it can alter counts. It paints the anticipated picture as it pans out and then gives another----often the anticipated picture turns out to be the ACTUAL picture like it has so far.---now of course having said that it will stuff up!
There are other forms of analysis (Range and volume) I find very helpful in managing a trade. Very Simple analysis.
Stop still 4525
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Re: XAO Analysis
Tech,
I like your analysis! Are you short using the Sep SPI contract? If so, is your stop based on the SPI Sep price or is it based on the XJO?
I personally dove head first in my first SPI trade on Fri being short at 4436. Looking at the intraday chart I was amazed at how well I did to pick the top. I put this down to pure luck more than anything as previous paper trading attempts have been woeful!
Showing a small profit ATM, the good ole fear and greed are nagging at me.
I'm just hoping I can put emotions aside and manage this trade as 'correctly' as possible.
Tech,
I like your analysis! Are you short using the Sep SPI contract? If so, is your stop based on the SPI Sep price or is it based on the XJO?
I personally dove head first in my first SPI trade on Fri being short at 4436. Looking at the intraday chart I was amazed at how well I did to pick the top. I put this down to pure luck more than anything as previous paper trading attempts have been woeful!
Showing a small profit ATM, the good ole fear and greed are nagging at me.
I'm just hoping I can put emotions aside and manage this trade as 'correctly' as possible.
Re: XAO Analysis
Interesting tech volume.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX
Interesting tech volume.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Have covered my short position.
Have covered my short position.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well done on your SPI futures contract short sell Tech/A. Did you do so as a hedging strategy or simply seized the opportunity when it presented itself.
Well done on your SPI futures contract short sell Tech/A. Did you do so as a hedging strategy or simply seized the opportunity when it presented itself.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
W
Ive watched many longer term moves some Ive seen and commented on which have moved 2000pts +
Trading much shorter term.
They dont come up all that often but when they do the reward to risk is well worth the trade.
I dont think this is over by a long stretch yet but analysis tells me the balance has tipped to the long side albeit to be confirmed.
So this time I decided not to watch.
W
Ive watched many longer term moves some Ive seen and commented on which have moved 2000pts +
Trading much shorter term.
They dont come up all that often but when they do the reward to risk is well worth the trade.
I dont think this is over by a long stretch yet but analysis tells me the balance has tipped to the long side albeit to be confirmed.
So this time I decided not to watch.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Tech/A when do you anticipate shorting for the next move down? or do you not plan to short again?
Tech/A when do you anticipate shorting for the next move down? or do you not plan to short again?
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Ill be following the Trade as it un folds.
The chart above gives you an indication of how I'll be trading it---if of course the analysis plays out.
Ill post anything of interest.
Ill be following the Trade as it un folds.
The chart above gives you an indication of how I'll be trading it---if of course the analysis plays out.
Ill post anything of interest.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Any change in stop loss Tech?
Any change in stop loss Tech?
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hi Tech/a,
From a technical perspective what has changed your mind that further falls arn't going to come to pass.
Cheers
Hi Tech/a,
From a technical perspective what has changed your mind that further falls arn't going to come to pass.
Cheers
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
I have no doubt further falls will certainly be happening.
I am however expecting a pause in the downward thrust for a little while.
I may not have the timing perfect but the risk to the upside (From my analysis above) is to me greater than the possible gain letting the trade run.
As mentioned I am looking for re entry.
I have no doubt further falls will certainly be happening.
I am however expecting a pause in the downward thrust for a little while.
I may not have the timing perfect but the risk to the upside (From my analysis above) is to me greater than the possible gain letting the trade run.
As mentioned I am looking for re entry.
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Short again at 4359
Short again at 4359