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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe not as scared of breaking above 4340 as I thought :)

Sold half my position at 4351 to lock in some profits. Letting remaining position ride with a stop just below 4335.

This has been a huge learning experience for me and I am very grateful for the words of wisdom and posts that made me question and consider my own strategy, emotions and thoughts.

Looking forward to riding the trend down when it resumes :)

EDIT: Sorry, just saw previous replies. I thought I posted this earlier but it didn't post.
I'm looking forward to the retirement Tech, but I don't think it will be of this move, or the next one, or the one after that. Maybe a few thousand more.

So the standard 32.8%-61.8% retracement is on the cards. What's the stand out signs that this move has completed? Just keep an eye on prices in this vicinity?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
Maybe not as scared of breaking above 4340 as I thought :)

Sold half my position at 4351 to lock in some profits. Letting remaining position ride with a stop just below 4335.

This has been a huge learning experience for me and I am very grateful for the words of wisdom and posts that made me question and consider my own strategy, emotions and thoughts.

Looking forward to riding the trend down when it resumes :)
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Suffering sukatash---I'm green with envy!!
Well done punk!
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Tech, nothing to be jealous about; I've been in awe of some of the things I've seen of yours in the past. Though I will take your envy as a compliment :)

Frink; My thoughts are as per Tech's analysis. A weak corrective move up followed by continued downside circa 4,000.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Before bed last night I looked at the charts. I noticed 4390 was tagged (~50% retracement) and decided to move my stop up to 4347 as I believed (wrongly) that ~4355 should provide some level of support.

All positions closed. A little annoyed at my self for just being stopped out and then the SPI boucning back to ~4375; but then had I not moved my stop up and the SPI dropped over night I would have been equally annoyed.

All positions closed and patiently awaiting signs of weakness to then go short.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
Before bed last night I looked at the charts. I noticed 4390 was tagged (~50% retracement) and decided to move my stop up to 4347 as I believed (wrongly) that ~4355 should provide some level of support.

All positions closed. A little annoyed at my self for just being stopped out and then the SPI boucning back to ~4375; but then had I not moved my stop up and the SPI dropped over night I would have been equally annoyed.

All positions closed and patiently awaiting signs of weakness to then go short.
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I think that's a great trade. What percent of the move did you get? Anything like 50-60% would be a fairly decent trade imo. If you get the absolute highs and lows you are pretty lucky, but not necessarily prudent.

Where would you put the short entry? Below 4310 would be where I am looking...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skc said:
I think that's a great trade. What percent of the move did you get? Anything like 50-60% would be a fairly decent trade imo. If you get the absolute highs and lows you are pretty lucky, but not necessarily prudent.

Where would you put the short entry? Below 4310 would be where I am looking...
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Thanks for the kudos skc;

My initial trade long was at 4207. My final exit was in the early hours this morning when my stop of 4347 was hit.

I added and removed additional contracts on the way up and down, but that was the guts of the move that I was fortunate enough to capture. Trust me though, it wasn't with out fear and greed lurking over my left and right shoulder!

I'm not so sure on where to go short. As Tech and other have said; expect a 38.2% to 61.8% retracement. XJO is just shy of 50% and SEP SPI is even closer to 50%.

So maybe the last 4 days is the short, sharp uppercut ABC and the market will start turning lower from here. supporting this is that if it is an ABC, A ~ C in price movement.

OR

This up thrust is a 5 wave move and the market is now forming a running flat wave 4; since wave 2 was sharp.

Looking at the SPI 30 min chart;

If 4391 is broken to the upside; I might throw a cheeky long on with a very short stop in an attempt to catch the last upthrust of the wave 5.

If 4332 is broken to the downside I would think about an equally cheeky short with tight stop..

My opinion is that once 4163 is broken to the downside we will then be on a slippery slope. I would hope to be short prior to this and then add to a position once/if this level is breached.
:2twocents
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Must say that I feel like the odd one out staying net long from here:dunno:

Really don't see any reason why we won't see close to 4500 on the XAO in the next week or so, though am expecting some mild weakness tonight and monday in the US:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
Must say that I feel like the odd one out staying net long from here:dunno:

Really don't see any reason why we won't see close to 4500 on the XAO in the next week or so, though am expecting some mild weakness tonight and monday in the US:2twocents
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I also agree with you Prof, without doing a proper analysis there appears to be quite a bit of strength behind this move and I currently don't think the low from the 21st of May will be breached in the near term but in saying that I also don't think we are going to zoom to new highs either. And I'm also expecting some mild weakness over the next few days.

Again without doing a proper analysis I think we won't see new lows or a serious attempt to push through 4200 until around Sept/Oct, but the market will do what the market wants.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Very nice trading ladies and gents.
It has been very interesting following this thread over the last ten days.

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
I'm not so sure on where to go short. As Tech and other have said; expect a 38.2% to 61.8% retracement. XJO is just shy of 50% and SEP SPI is even closer to 50%.
:2twocents
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Hello, I'm sure you know but when looking at a retracement of the prevailing trend from the low (where you have the 100% at 4163 points on the chart) then the Fibonacci scale should be the other way around. That is the 0% at the low and the 100% at the high. :) Though the divisions are equal so it is just a flip of numbers in the mind.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Well look at that and on very low volume too boot.
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tech, what are the red, green and blue centipedes on that chart?

congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out :D ;)
 
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