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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

Interesting that you're short again.

IIRC you believed the Wave 1 low had been set and you covered. On todays breaking of yesterdays XJO low of 4368 I assume your analysis is saying the Wave 1 low has not been set yet?

What are the signs to look for that will show if/when this Wave 1 low being set? Or is the XJO looking nastier and we could be looking to break the next wave B low of 4,300?

Also, what are the signs you are looking for to prove your current assessment incorrect?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
Tech,

Interesting that you're short again.

IIRC you believed the Wave 1 low had been set and you covered. On todays breaking of yesterdays XJO low of 4368 I assume your analysis is saying the Wave 1 low has not been set yet?

What are the signs to look for that will show if/when this Wave 1 low being set? Or is the XJO looking nastier and we could be looking to break the next wave B low of 4,300?

Also, what are the signs you are looking for to prove your current assessment incorrect?
Click to expand...

satanoperca said:
2 hours can make a world of difference as the story unfolds.

Cheers
Click to expand...

Should be a gymnast!

Razzle/satanoperca

I went out of the office and came back to a new low.
So Yes wave 1 proved not to be in yet.
I would have left it but----China was dropping like a stone.
Highly likely this could be exhaustive for this move---will wait and see and stay on the right side of the market as long as I can without increasing my risk.

This could also mean that this move becomes a complex corrective move rather than a copy book 5 wave impulse move.
Lets wait another 2 hrs and see what unfolds---err few days!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sold short at 4252
Now long 4253 stop 4243
My long term trade plan is still in tact---Net Short.
Throwing in a short term opportunity if all goes well.
Low risk.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Highly likely this could be exhaustive for this move---

This could also mean that this move becomes a complex corrective move rather than a copy book 5 wave impulse move.
Lets wait another 2 hrs and see what unfolds---err few days!
Click to expand...

Not sure what all that means, but don't think we have seen the end of this move, ADP coming up, then ISM, which should front-run and be bigger than an illiquid non-farms.

1000 S&P coming right up is where my bet sits!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If todays rally from low keeps up on the XAO, I will be closing the majority of my shorts and also sit on my hands.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
On the side lines.
Click to expand...
Tech/A, you must be on the cusp of great things trading the financial markets. With your experience, practical application and solid capital base there are no limits. While reading about Kevin Bruce I thought how, from what I have seen, you are capable of achieving more trading the financial markets than most of us aim for. In saying this though, you don't know everything and there are lessons to be learned by all of us each and every day. Good work.
WHO IS KEVIN BRUCE?

Kevin Bruce, while nearly anonymous to the trading world, earned a fortune of $100 million trading as a trend following trader. How did he do it?

Bruce follows a strategy he first developed while a graduate student at the University of Georgia. Since then, he's added risk-management techniques. "It's mathematical. It tells us when to buy and sell and how much to buy and sell based on the odds of that trade being a winner or a loser," he says.
Click to expand...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Covered long 4265

On the side lines.
Click to expand...

Good work Tech! If you don't mind disclosing, how many points did you end up netting since you first started short? Also, were you short using the Sep SPI contract? Or another derivative/contract?

I personally was "aiming" to capture the same downward trend that you did. I ended up catching a measly net 72 points from such a huge move south! I kicked myself when I reassessed and saw that I should have caught at least 300 points!

Still, this was my first venture in trading the SPI so I guess you live and learn. In hindsight, my biggest fear was seeing a small profit of 20-40 points reverse into a 20-40 point loss. Had I had the kahunas to ride through this period and not keep looking at my screen and just let the market do its thing, I would have been much better off!

Another problem I had when I re-entered was my stop was way to close to the action. I was stopped out just after yesterdays day time close. Had this stop not been hit I would have been part of the 3% drop over night.

Still, you live and learn and I hope next time I will know better and not let fear get the better of me.

I personally am hopping to see a small bounce in the next 2 weeks. I then hope to be part of another downtrend that I believe will go under 4,000. We'll see what the rpice does between now and then :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

RazzaDazzla said:
Still, you live and learn and I hope next time I will know better and not let fear get the better of me.
Click to expand...

This is the phase I went through awhile ago. No plan or set of rules to trade by. Jumping at shadows with no tested strategy. Fear of losing, over confident when winning. Emotional roller-coaster type stuff. :banghead:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
Tech/A, you must be on the cusp of great things trading the financial markets. With your experience, practical application and solid capital base there are no limits. While reading about Kevin Bruce I thought how, from what I have seen, you are capable of achieving more trading the financial markets than most of us aim for. In saying this though, you don't know everything and there are lessons to be learned by all of us each and every day. Good work.
Click to expand...

How much do you really need to know.
After 16 yrs Im afraid Ive found out that its not a lot.
Mind you you have to know a hell of a lot to understand what the not a lot is.

RazzaDazzla said:
Good work Tech! If you don't mind disclosing, how many points did you end up netting since you first started short? Also, were you short using the Sep SPI contract? Or another derivative/contract?
Click to expand...

September SPI
I havent tallied it up but with 1 and 2 contract trades around 300 ($8K)

I personally was "aiming" to capture the same downward trend that you did. I ended up catching a measly net 72 points from such a huge move south! I kicked myself when I reassessed and saw that I should have caught at least 300 points!

Still, this was my first venture in trading the SPI so I guess you live and learn. In hindsight, my biggest fear was seeing a small profit of 20-40 points reverse into a 20-40 point loss. Had I had the kahunas to ride through this period and not keep looking at my screen and just let the market do its thing, I would have been much better off!

Another problem I had when I re-entered was my stop was way to close to the action. I was stopped out just after yesterdays day time close. Had this stop not been hit I would have been part of the 3% drop over night.

Still, you live and learn and I hope next time I will know better and not let fear get the better of me.

I personally am hopping to see a small bounce in the next 2 weeks. I then hope to be part of another downtrend that I believe will go under 4,000. We'll see what the rpice does between now and then :)
Click to expand...

Think that bounce will be days not weeks.
Look at Support and Resistance.
See how traders react at these levels.
Its still playing out as expected.
I expect a shallow poorly supported rally to the upside befor dumping resumes. (So we still agree)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A bit of bullish divergence around (CBA, WBC and IPL to name a few). Not scattered all over the charts though to get me really excited. Worth watching however.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sammy84 said:
A bit of bullish divergence around (CBA, WBC and IPL to name a few). Not scattered all over the charts though to get me really excited. Worth watching however.
Click to expand...

Interesting Sammy, below are two scan result pics, one of this time last week and one based on today's EOD data, both are the same database, ie. the ASX 300.

A minor change is being sensed...
.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
September SPI
I havent tallied it up but with 1 and 2 contract trades around 300 ($8K)



Think that bounce will be days not weeks.
Look at Support and Resistance.
See how traders react at these levels.
Its still playing out as expected.
I expect a shallow poorly supported rally to the upside befor dumping resumes. (So we still agree)
Click to expand...

That 300 points is what I "should" have caught hold of.
I'm glad we agree on some upside before dumping continues. Maybe it will take two weeks to slowly claw up the stairs then back down the elevator shaft it goes!

With your trading Tech, do you trade based on prices in the Sep SPI or do you trade based on the prices in the XJO/XAO? Eg. short SEP SPI if XJO breaks below 4300 OR short SEP SPI if SEP SPI breaks below 4300?

I know the charts for SEP SPI / XJO are similar in shape; but price levels vary.

For the MTPredictor uses out there; Looks like MTP is calling a low for the ASX300? Would be interested to know if/when MTP calls a high for the ASX300. I've often wondered how good MTP would be for trading contracts such as the SPI. Any MTP owners use it to trade the SPI?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I've been getting a few buy signals on individual stock and went long with a few things this morning. I'm expecting the low for XAO either today or tomorrow.
No idea how much of a move it will be, but most years July is pretty reasonable for Aussie stocks.

I don't expect 'the bottom' but certainly long trade opportunities here.

Now, where is Mr Murphy??:rolleyes:

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My elliot wave analysis looks like wave C will end around 3800 to 3700, 3660 is 50% of the all time range so this could be a significant support level.
I'm new to elliot wave so correct me if i have labeled wrong or anything. After this wave C can we be safe to expect another bullish long term motive wave?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

SPI +30
+ is up

Mind you looks pretty weak.
As noted from earlier posts expect a retracement before
dumping again.
 
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