XAO Technical Analysis

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm back leaning to the bullish side atm due to the continued strength in the market and I'm also seeing a few continuation patterns looking like they are close to breaking out.

There looks like a nice triangle forming on the XAO chart but it is sitting under resistance so it could break to the downside, if it was sitting above that resistance I would be extremely bullish.

 

[Emjai]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey guys,

I thought I would add my 2 cents with whats going on in the Aussie market.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey guys,

I thought I would add my 2 cents with whats going on in the Aussie market.

Similiar pattern of potential resistance on the weekly XJO.
Blue sky above 5200 perhaps ?

(click to expand)

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't think theres any doubt its going to act as resistance, it has respected that area twice in the past. We haven't exactly approached it with much push behind it, we have had a failed test on the daily XJO, and a weekly one that will be determined this week, may see a short term down move, but will watch for buying to come back in, no major signs of weakness just yet.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't think theres any doubt its going to act as resistance, it has respected that area twice in the past. We haven't exactly approached it with much push behind it, we have had a failed test on the daily XJO, and a weekly one that will be determined this week, may see a short term down move, but will watch for buying to come back in, no major signs of weakness just yet.

Yep, this range looks daunting. Everyone will be looking at this area as a technical sell area and respond accordingly. Maybe.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep, this range looks daunting. Everyone will be looking at this area as a technical sell area and respond accordingly. Maybe.

Have to agree

But not on charts, more on events.

many outlets are reporting great returns for the S&P 500 with a reduced workforce.

If that's a recovery then I must be JD Rockefeller himself!

 

[enigmatic]

Re: XAO Analysis

Lower workforce and increase profits.. Nothing like a bit of Efficiency coming back into the Work place, I would say that is definitely a good base for a nice recovery. Well for those that are good at there job, may be a little longer for the rest of the country.

Still waiting for 2010-2011 before I will be happy once all those alt-a and Option adjustable Rates start reseting, we will either see a decline to lower then March or we will just keep chugging along.
I guess I'll just need to wait and see, Although it just peaked for the 2009-2010 period just waiting mid 2010 were the rest hit higher then 2008

Sorry for offtopic

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well looking at currently at the dow futures,Could this be a start in a down-turn or a simple correction,Well my personal opinion is this could be a start of a possible W forming.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

All the media is calling this current down move a pullback, the contrarian in me can't help but think that the pullback wont be as deep as expected as a result.

For my nostradamus moment- market wont go much lower from here, somewhere around 4570, then a small bounce up, back down to support and then a head and shoulder continuation pattern similar to what we saw in june should play out. Or I'm wrong and I should have put in a bigger hedge

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but everyone has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.

Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.

 

[lucifuge]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but everyone has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.

Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.

Have to agree with this.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't mean to sound doom and gloom but everyone has been waiting for a pullback to buy for the last 3 months - thats why there was never a decent pullback.

Now that there is a pullback, this could go a hell of a long way longer than everyone expected.

I think most of the sellers would have sold in the last two days in anticipation of a deep pullback. I couldn't imagine that anyone weak holders anticipating a pullback would be waiting for anymore confirmation to sell. I guess the only question is when will the buyers be happy to step back in again.

I'm still unhedged waiting for the possibility of more strength to return. If I'm right then this would help elavate me to semi-guru status...If i'm wrong then I'm just another faceless poster on an internet forum who seeks guru status

Note: If we dive through the last pivot low (4557-4579) I retract all of above comments and may still be elevated to guru status at a later time

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think most of the sellers would have sold in the last two days in anticipation of a deep pullback. I couldn't imagine that anyone weak holders anticipating a pullback would be waiting for anymore confirmation to sell. I guess the only question is when will the buyers be happy to step back in again.

I'm still unhedged waiting for the possibility of more strength to return. If I'm right then this would help elavate me to semi-guru status...If i'm wrong then I'm just another faceless poster on an internet forum who seeks guru status

Note: If we dive through the last pivot low (4557-4579) I retract all of above comments and may still be elevated to guru status at a later time

Y'days Inflation figures were higher than expected, further affirming the need to raise rates. (maybe 50bp?) The AUD spiked up, but was sold off heavily afterwards, imo from offshore funds dumping Aus equities and unwinding from our 'risky' shores.

Theres been bank buying on EVERY pullback for the last few months. I would imagine a fair few instos would like to lock in some profits.


..Then again the buy bots could come in again and we'll see 5000 before end of the year

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

..Then again the buy bots could come in again and we'll see 5000 before end of the year

I think the geeks have programmed sell bots. They will take the market down with them for a month. Then guys like Goldman will switch their buy bots back on until the next quarterly earnings. They will then able to report better than expected earnings thanks to trading profits. They will receive their bonus, pay back government loans etc.

Rinse and repeat at next quarter.

Sammy... what are you when you are a semi guru? The gu or the ru?

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sammy... what are you when you are a semi guru? The gu or the ru?

I don't mind the Ru, reminds me of the Roo, which was Wayne Carey's old nickname.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm back leaning to the bullish side atm due to the continued strength in the market and I'm also seeing a few continuation patterns looking like they are close to breaking out.

There looks like a nice triangle forming on the XAO chart but it is sitting under resistance so it could break to the downside, if it was sitting above that resistance I would be extremely bullish.

Well we broke to the downside which was always a chance while sitting under that resistance.

This now brings it into line with my longer term analysis/theory that I have dribbling about since about July. I will post an updated chart on Friday night as I won't have time tonight.

But just quickly, I do still favour a move back down to 3700ish but 4000-4100 might be enough (need to see more price action unfold). The immediate action will probably be a bounce of some sort in the next week or 2 to test the 4800 area and then down - 4500 will be the key support to be broken to see 4000-4100 tested imo.

 

[Miro]

Re: XAO Analysis

Could someone please paste a link or two on technical analysis of the S&P/ASX index? I want to read as much as I can before I decide what to do next - whether to sell or hedge against further declines.

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

All the media is calling this current down move a pullback, the contrarian in me can't help but think that the pullback wont be as deep as expected as a result.

For my nostradamus moment- market wont go much lower from here, somewhere around 4570, then a small bounce up, back down to support and then a head and shoulder continuation pattern similar to what we saw in june should play out. Or I'm wrong and I should have put in a bigger hedge

The H&S pattern is one possibility. Whether it is continuation or reversal will only be revealed after it happens... regardless, the right shoulder offers good shorting imo.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

The H&S pattern is one possibility. Whether it is continuation or reversal will only be revealed after it happens... regardless, the right shoulder offers good shorting imo.

Yep Sireee , also offers a VERY nice low % loss ( risk /reward ratio as known more generally here) on stopout points if it turns out to be a continuation of current Bull trend.

Personally backing a minor bounce for the XAO for tommorow and today positioned accordingly with tight stops in case the current bearish momentum hits full steam ahaead.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

As we look like we are approaching(or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.

It has played out nearly spot on so far - talk about fluking it. But now comes the interesting part. While I still favour it playing out as per my original analysis there is a chance we could just consolidate above 4300 for a couple of months before pushing higher.

Update.

I'm now looking for a move back towards 3700 - Major support above the lows but there is a chance we could end up only pulling back towards the top of the first rally from the bottom which is around 4000-4100 - this would also make the decline 3 waves instead of 5. I will be looking for signs from individual stocks around this area to decide on how I trade around that level. But I still favour a test of 3700 for a number of reasons.

I have also amended the target level for the next red rally to around the 4800-5400 area.

Will be interesting to see if this analysis continues to play out.