XAO Technical Analysis

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

And now everyone who shorted the bad figures has been sqeezed out. Dow is green, S&P is green. Lets see if it can stay that way or revert to pivot

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

As we look like we are approaching (or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.

I like your analysis and your comparison with the ’87 crash period and would like to add to it if I may. I’ve observed that since 1931 we seem to have been running approx. 20yr EW cycles from start of W1 of one cycle to the end of a significant bear market retracement of the entire index and the start of W1 of the next cycle. This may have something to do with our generations, I don’t know.

Aug-31 - Dec-52 = 21.3yrs (Bear market retracement: May-51, 139.3 - Dec-52, 92.6 = 33.5%)
Dec-52 - Sep-74 = 21.7yrs (Bear market retracement: Jan-70, 448.2 - Sep-74, 173.5 = 61.3%)
Sep-74 - Nov-92 = 18.2yrs (Bear market retracement: Sep-87, 2306.2 - Nov-87, 1149.2 = 50.2%)
Nov-92 - Mar-09 = 16.3yrs (Bear market retracement: Nov-07, 6873.2 - Mar-09, 3090.8 = 55.0%)

If there is some sort of a cycle here it could be that we will be chopping around for at least a couple of years, probably longer, before the next bull market takes off. Maybe up to your Oct’10 target zone, then down, and after that, who knows? Maybe a repeat of the ’70-’74 style correction.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now breaking it down to a daily chart.

This is the pattern I currently think could play out.

A test of support at 4500ish a quick rally to test 4700ish and fill the gap and then down she goes before finally making a lower high.

The lower high will be the key indicator of the start of the next decent move down imo. But like I said in my post above there is the possibility that support at 4200-4300 becomes the base that we consolidate at and we don't retest 3700 but I do favour a retest of 3700 but it is pure speculation at this stage.

thanks for your analysis nomore4s

Don't really have much of an opinion on how the market will move a few weeks out from now, but do have a slight upside bias on the US markets for the next week, and would expect our market to follow if that's the case. This could also fit in with your idea of a rally back to test the recent highs before any further selloff

2 things that stood out for me on a look at the s&p 500 this morning - we have made new 10 day lows within the context of an uptrend(simply defined by an ema), and have also made 4 consecutive lower closes.

results below of each pattern in recent times. First column is days out from the initial signal. Both suggest a slight edge in being long from here for the next week or so

 

[Timmy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Please note, we are VERY serious now about keeping this thread for analysis ONLY. Please put posts not related to analysis (yes, like this one) into the banter thread (or somewhere else).

Thanks

 

[BNECBD_DayTrader]

Re: XAO Analysis

4 hr chart shows possibility for an up day today, what do think..?

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

Possible scenario as a double top if 4761 holds out on the xao/otherwise then a leg up to 4964 on the xao

 

[Timmy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very strong buying in the 'overnight' S&P500 futures (ES). Moved up 4 points or so after the earnings announcement from Alcoa, but in the last 10 mins or so has moved up another 6-odd points. These are big moves in the overnight ES at this time of day (not huge, but unusual enough to rate a mention). Trying to see what I can find out about the move in the last 10 mins.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very strong buying in the 'overnight' S&P500 futures (ES). Moved up 4 points or so after the earnings announcement from Alcoa, but in the last 10 mins or so has moved up another 6-odd points. These are big moves in the overnight ES at this time of day (not huge, but unusual enough to rate a mention). Trying to see what I can find out about the move in the last 10 mins.

imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures We're being watched as a world barometer.

 

[Timmy]

Re: XAO Analysis

imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures We're being watched as a world barometer.

You might have said that in jest, but might be more accurate than you think?

The surge in the ES came about 5 minutes after the Aus figures. I think you are right about covering shorts. From 1058.50 to just under 1064 in less than 30 seconds, on volume of about 6000-odd contracts. For this time of day, that's big.

Had a similar move a couple of months ago during earnings season, turned out to be short-covering as earning came in better than expected.

BTW - posting this in this thread for its obvious implications for the Australian market.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

You might have said that in jest, but might be more accurate than you think?

The surge in the ES came about 5 minutes after the Aus figures. I think you are right about covering shorts. From 1058.50 to just under 1064 in less than 30 seconds, on volume of about 6000-odd contracts. For this time of day, that's big.

Had a similar move a couple of months ago during earnings season, turned out to be short-covering as earning came in better than expected.

BTW - posting this in this thread for its obvious implications for the Australian market.

No jest at all, SPI popped up too when the data came out. I guess there was the moment of shock and figuring whether the data was dodgy because it was too good. Maybe also unwinding of SPI/ES spread (judging by the aussie pop being faster than the SPI or ES pop)

 

[surfziggy]

Re: XAO Analysis

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Jobless claims announcement tonight and Non-Farm payrolls on Friday. I think the reaction to these sets the tone for what happens next.

There seems to be a lot of talk of people waiting for a pullback to get in. But on the flipside we appear to be (and according to the perma-bears) at a potential turning point. Given that the last few bearish patterns have failed what's to say that we won't;

1) Just melt higher into the end of the year
2) Go straight up from here again

My guess is that because everyone is expecting a major pullback, it probably won't happen.

In reaction to previous comments 'the market is so overbought' blah blah, PE's are too high. So what? when did a stock market run on logic?

I'd be really interested to hear what Trembling Hand has to say. He's been spot on with the last couple of calls he made.

Also note that some people were talking about oil decoupling at the start of the week. Well look today it still is, but I'd say not in the direction people were thinking, it's back over $70 today.

BTW holding a long GBP.AUD position, oil and in and out of SPI.

Well looks like #1 was right. Just another bearish pattern break down, the same as every other time this year

 

[jono_oz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well i forecasted this in previous posts of the downturn in momentum on the xao,I was 1 week early tho in my forecasts tho im happy im in a 100% cash portfolio,futures on the dow are at currently at 130 points down,Altho ppl will rush in to say it's to early,its been 4 months since large downturn in confidence(in terms of futures).
The U.S just announced a further 273 000 jobs lost,alot higher than than forecasted.Well if this plays out on the dow as a another sharp sell-off,The resistance of 4525 on the xao will be tested.Seems the w correction maybe in play now.Well when i get time will add in graphs on resistance lvls on dow/xao this weekend.Well it's time for the bears to come out of the caves it seems.

100% cash - well I guess the interest rate rise will push that along a little hehehe Well I can't talk actually - I was in the process of selling out. Just lucky that I had not gotten to far into it.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Re: XAO Analysis

imo alot of stops exploded, Blame aus employment figures We're being watched as a world barometer.

The tail that wags the dog!?! Our interest rate rise was reported world wide Does this mean the DOW is watching us for leadership LOL

PS: I admit to being unrealistically bullish & therefore my forecasts totally unreliable :

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

100% cash - well I guess the interest rate rise will push that along a little hehehe Well I can't talk actually - I was in the process of selling out. Just lucky that I had not gotten to far into it.

Easy to sit on the sidelines,And correct people.So can you give my a graph or prediction on the next week's scenario's?So you think today's move on the xao is bullish?
In fact that post you pulled up of mine is a week old,Infact there has been no upward movement since that time,only a gap filled.If you actually read past posts you we realise that i still trade daily on cfd's,reguardless my porfolio is 100% in cash.

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

I guess it's fair to say looking currently at the dow futures,The start of the new leg up on the xao will start tomorrow.Time to ride the bulls for the short-term.The indicator for the lead was tonight for me.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now breaking it down to a daily chart.

This is the pattern I currently think could play out.

A test of support at 4500ish a quick rally to test 4700ish and fill the gap and then down she goes before finally making a lower high.

The lower high will be the key indicator of the start of the next decent move down imo. But like I said in my post above there is the possibility that support at 4200-4300 becomes the base that we consolidate at and we don't retest 3700 but I do favour a retest of 3700 but it is pure speculation at this stage.

A quick update.

We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.

I've also noticed a few resource stocks are starting to give me short signals or have short plays setting up.

We are certainly at an interesting juncture in the market.

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

A quick update.

We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.

I've also noticed a few resource stocks are starting to give me short signals or have short plays setting up.

We are certainly at an interesting juncture in the market.

Nice analysis,I did share the same view as yours a few days ago(in a Double Top Scenario forming).Until the resistant line was broken.Altho the last few days with low volume trading would suggest a uncertain pause or consolidation period.
But with the xao following the dow,I assume we will go through the next leg up.Altho we will see the week ahead on wall street in waiting on the financial reports of the third-quarter on large caps(google/goldman/intell/IBM & BOA),To see if there was growth in revenue.
I'm sure they will show us the fabricated info,To rally the market higher?So the larger caps can recapitalize(brush the rest of the info under the mat).I'm sure if they asked people in Detroit with 30% unemployment how the economy was?We would get a more realistic outview!:

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

A quick update.

We've pushed up through the resistance line but it has been anything but convincing. I still favour a move to the downside or at least a decent consolidation period but with the US seemingly determined to move higher it will probably drag us higher. If we do see some weakness overseas it will be interesting to see how the markets here handle it.

I've also noticed a few resource stocks are starting to give me short signals or have short plays setting up.

We are certainly at an interesting juncture in the market.

Well mate after watching the late sell-offs on the dow and low volume trading in both xao and the dow,I'm now leaning more towards a consolidation or like your chart scenario of a Double top.Actually started placing short cfd's & options now.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Is this as good as it gets? Please support your local market

 

[Donga]

Re: XAO Analysis

Charting... Festivus - what does the chart look like if the base year is 1998 or 2002, would either change the lines much? And in any case, what are the conclusions of the charts presented?