XAO Technical Analysis

[clayton4115]

Re: XAO Analysis

definately looking very bearish, market fallen 2% and no sign of an intraday recovery, i think we will pass the support at 4540 easily on the way down.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

Light volume day, prob selling into long wkend its less of a fall rather than getting back into line with the other world indices.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Over the past few months, just about every drop has been bought up.

Who knows if this was technical buying, or fundamental buying, or just because the amount of cash being pumped in by the CBs needed to find a home.

What will probably happen though, is that current administrations will probably pump more money in if there is another capitulation.

More money that needs to find a home. Where will it go?

Too early to be calling in the four horseman again I think.

I am with Marc Faber.

A few years from now, make sure you have a decent bunker.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

rather funny here on red days tho

all the bears come out in force ...... guys its hardly a crash yet , i think most of the ACTUAL traders here would be of a mind to stick to there trailing stops on there individual holds rather than dump everything cos the market fell 100 points

but hey i could be wrong and because its a red day ALL plans go out the window for some

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

by the way if one scrolls back and looks at my targets given one may see i also provided a chart , reasons , and numbers ..............you got any ?

also would like to point out that the high i gave was only minor points out of the actual high and my target fall was only 2 points off the target given it was however a week out

Could you post a link to, or the number of, that post? I can only find #7551 which gives some targets and a chart but no reasons or analysis unless you call "PERSONAL OPINION ONLY" a reason.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Analysis

*Puts mod hat on*

As an impartial mod that does not post on this thread lets keep it on the topic of XAO Analysis.

That is, analysis that can be used to trade the XAO specifically. This is not a thread where you post info about buying and selling certain stocks, or talk about the economy in general.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

As an impartial mod that does not post on this thread lets keep it on the topic of XAO Analysis.

That is, analysis that can be used to trade the XAO specifically.

Yes! Can we please have some analysis, not just the mystical plucking of numbers out of the air (unless that's what passes for analysis here).

Charts with analysis tools shown, plus explanations, would be great (eg as in kennas' post #7622).

Analysis = An investigation of the component parts of a whole and their relations in making up the whole.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just one final point:

It is fine to have an opinion (after all no-one can be certtain) but that opinion should be backed up with reasons as to why you think it is so rather than just saying its only your opinion.

Tell us why it is your opinion, as opposed to just stating it.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

1st target 4596

2nd target 4497

PERSONAL OPINION ONLY

probably wrong , often am

take from it what you wish

MY percieved pivot points as in MY percieved support bounce areas

them targets quoted are all give or take 10 points

i

Yes! Can we please have some analysis, not just the mystical plucking of numbers out of the air (unless that's what passes for analysis here).

.

i gave my reasons for my "mystical numbers"

it was analysis of what i could see from my chart

i apologise for not knowing how to add lines or circles to my chart at time , but i posted my thoughts in words instead

probably would help if ppl scrolled back before attacking or penalizing my posts

 

[Timmy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Put my mod hat on.

Have to take off the tinfoil hat first ... there.

OK - let's move on NOW.

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

The sea of red makes me feel like having a red, even though it's only 2 in the afternoon. Can't see any afternoon rally given the long weekend and the non-farm payroll numbers tonight. I think I will put on a stop sell entry hedge on the index for my positions.

Put my mod hat on.

Have to take off the tinfoil hat first ... there.

OK - let's move on NOW.

How cute! a little cat with a tin hat on.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

The sea of red makes me feel like having a red, even though it's only 2 in the afternoon. Can't see any afternoon rally given the long weekend and the non-farm payroll numbers tonight. I think I will put on a stop sell entry hedge on the index for my positions.



How cute! a little cat with a tin hat on.

Says the dog in a bear suit

 

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

Says the dog in a bear suit

I am more like a bear wearing a dog suit trading long because I am "trend following".

Dog suit is trendy, isn't it?

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Will be interesting so see how the minor support line goes. If defeated (probable) then I'm looking for support between those big blue lines.

Kennas, are your lines based on the bodies of the candlesticks or the highs and lows? The first (4650) and the third (4278) looks like the lows but how did you get the second at 4520?

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

i gave my reasons for my "mystical numbers" it was analysis of what i could see from my chart. i apologise for not knowing how to add lines or circles to my chart at time , but i posted my thoughts in words instead. probably would help if ppl scrolled back before attacking or penalizing my posts

I've sent a PM to nunthewiser in an attempt to smooth this. Hoping for a reply. Sorry if it came across as a hostile post. Happy trading everyone.

 

[Donga]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ftse down nearly 1% and Dow SPI down 39 points, bearish momentum increasing!

You may be right about about a few days of bear back slapping, but IMHO not on the basis of your post. FTSE down nearly 1% is half our fall today and if Dow is constrained to anything less than 50 points tonight, you would think the correction will be minor. The overall recovery is well underway even if a little slower in the US. We have to expect a few days breather every now and then on the way back to 5000

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.

Updated charts - playing the game so far.

Update on my theory, lol.

This rally looks to be on it's last legs now but I'm expecting another test of the high of this rally or maybe even a probe slightly higher. A lower high and lower low is obviously the next sign to look for.

Some divergence showing up too (2nd chart).

As we look like we are approaching(or maybe reached) the top of this rally I thought I would update my chart and analysis.

It has played out nearly spot on so far - talk about fluking it. But now comes the interesting part. While I still favour it playing out as per my original analysis there is a chance we could just consolidate above 4300 for a couple of months before pushing higher.

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now breaking it down to a daily chart.

This is the pattern I currently think could play out.

A test of support at 4500ish a quick rally to test 4700ish and fill the gap and then down she goes before finally making a lower high.

The lower high will be the key indicator of the start of the next decent move down imo. But like I said in my post above there is the possibility that support at 4200-4300 becomes the base that we consolidate at and we don't retest 3700 but I do favour a retest of 3700 but it is pure speculation at this stage.

 

[RayG]

Re: XAO Analysis

Now breaking it down to a daily chart.

This is the pattern I currently think could play out.

A test of support at 4500ish a quick rally to test 4700ish and fill the gap and then down she goes before finally making a lower high.

The lower high will be the key indicator of the start of the next decent move down imo. But like I said in my post above there is the possibility that support at 4200-4300 becomes the base that we consolidate at and we don't retest 3700 but I do favour a retest of 3700 but it is pure speculation at this stage.

Nice analysis nomore4s, good to see your expected pattern finally emerging, the interesting thing will be whether or not the 4200-4300 support holds.

I note that dow futures are currently 100 points down, I think it's likely that the long anticipated correction is beginning.

Regards
Ray

 

[Dark1975]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well i forecasted this in previous posts of the downturn in momentum on the xao,I was 1 week early tho in my forecasts tho im happy im in a 100% cash portfolio,futures on the dow are at currently at 130 points down,Altho ppl will rush in to say it's to early,its been 4 months since large downturn in confidence(in terms of futures).
The U.S just announced a further 273 000 jobs lost,alot higher than than forecasted.Well if this plays out on the dow as a another sharp sell-off,The resistance of 4525 on the xao will be tested.Seems the w correction maybe in play now.Well when i get time will add in graphs on resistance lvls on dow/xao this weekend.Well it's time for the bears to come out of the caves it seems.