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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

yeah, there will always be another opportunity to enter the market and make more profits, but locking in profits is imperative, a lesson i learnt the hard way prior to the crash.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
on the flip side again, no-one ever lost money taking profits and it would be just as arrogant to start picking tops..
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That depends on the size of the profits taken compared to the losses taken... but I guess that's obvious.

Hmmmmm maybe not so obvious to those who cut profits short and let their loser run (many). :cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

clayton4115 said:
yeah, there will always be another opportunity to enter the market and make more profits, but locking in profits is imperative, a lesson i learnt the hard way prior to the crash.
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You don't have to sell out of your portfolio to lock in profits.

Also wouldn't you need to evaluate each stock on an individual basis?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
That depends on the size of the profits taken compared to the losses taken... but I guess that's obvious.

Hmmmmm maybe not so obvious to those who cut profits short and let their loser run (many). :cautious:
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very true, should have put a disclaimer saying on the proviso you win 100% of the time or something ha
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Here's a weekly article from SFO magazine...
http://www.sfomag.com/WeeklyColumns/Default.aspx


Fear and Greed

By Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com

The market is currently being driven by fear and greed.

Fear is evident in the demand for treasuries. Last week’s auction of 30-year notes had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92. According to Bloomberg, this was the highest the ratio has been since November 2007. (The bid-to-cover ratio measures the number of bids received against the number of bids accepted.)

Greed can be seen in the performance of major stock indices. Last Thursday, the Dow closed above 9,625 for the first time since Nov. 4, 2008. The S&P 500 is at an 11-month high. The Nasdaq continues to gain back lost ground.

Then there are other indicators. Many fund managers seem to be sitting on the sidelines. Gold has risen above $1,000. Signs of fear, right?

Oil keeps rising above $70. The VIX is back at more normal levels. Signs of greed, right?

Making matters more complicated is volume. Trading activity stunk last week. It was light even when compared to recent standards. This means there is no conviction in the stock market’s movement.

If all of this has you befuddled, don’t worry, you’re not alone. While at the Chicago Board of Trade last week, I spoke with a fund manager who admitted to being baffled by the current market environment. His logic says to short the market, while his trading screen says to go long.

But Isn’t the Recovery Helping?

Right now you’re probably thinking, “Charles, I thought the economy is improving”. The U.S. is turning a corner. The ISM Manufacturing Index has risen for eight consecutive months. Employers are shedding fewer jobs. Housing is bouncing off of its bottom.

But, there are still many problems. Approximately one out of six Americans is either unemployed or involuntarily working a part-time job. Wages are stagnant. Foreclosures have remained above 300,000 for six consecutive months. Commercial real estate is deteriorating. Banks are continuing to fail, and credit remains tight.

In other words, we might be getting a recovery, but it’s a slow and painful one.

So, What Should You Do?

I’ve been calling for a prolonged trading range to form and I continue to think this will be the case. I just don’t know where the top will be. The Dow seemed to hit a brick wall at 9,600, though 10,000 may end up being the real line in the sand.

My bigger concern right now is that, over the short-term, just about any trade involves an elevated level of risk. This applies to both long and short positions. It also applies to a wide variety of assets, including stocks, bonds and commodities.

Therefore, you need to consider what your actual trading time horizon is. If you are looking for assets you can hold for a year or more, I would dollar-cost average. If you’re searching for assets to hold for only a few days, keep your stops really tight. If you’re like most investors, and just want a stock that won’t go down right after you buy it, invest with caution. I wouldn’t stay out of the market, but I wouldn’t put all of my money into it either.

Ride the upward trend while you can, but understand that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. That’s fear and greed for you.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

No offence, but this article actually ends up saying nothing.


white_goodman said:
Here's a weekly article from SFO magazine...
http://www.sfomag.com/WeeklyColumns/Default.aspx


Fear and Greed

By Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com

The market is currently being driven by fear and greed.

Fear is evident in the demand for treasuries. Last week’s auction of 30-year notes had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92. According to Bloomberg, this was the highest the ratio has been since November 2007. (The bid-to-cover ratio measures the number of bids received against the number of bids accepted.)

Greed can be seen in the performance of major stock indices. Last Thursday, the Dow closed above 9,625 for the first time since Nov. 4, 2008. The S&P 500 is at an 11-month high. The Nasdaq continues to gain back lost ground.

Then there are other indicators. Many fund managers seem to be sitting on the sidelines. Gold has risen above $1,000. Signs of fear, right?

Oil keeps rising above $70. The VIX is back at more normal levels. Signs of greed, right?

Making matters more complicated is volume. Trading activity stunk last week. It was light even when compared to recent standards. This means there is no conviction in the stock market’s movement.

If all of this has you befuddled, don’t worry, you’re not alone. While at the Chicago Board of Trade last week, I spoke with a fund manager who admitted to being baffled by the current market environment. His logic says to short the market, while his trading screen says to go long.

But Isn’t the Recovery Helping?

Right now you’re probably thinking, “Charles, I thought the economy is improving”. The U.S. is turning a corner. The ISM Manufacturing Index has risen for eight consecutive months. Employers are shedding fewer jobs. Housing is bouncing off of its bottom.

But, there are still many problems. Approximately one out of six Americans is either unemployed or involuntarily working a part-time job. Wages are stagnant. Foreclosures have remained above 300,000 for six consecutive months. Commercial real estate is deteriorating. Banks are continuing to fail, and credit remains tight.

In other words, we might be getting a recovery, but it’s a slow and painful one.

So, What Should You Do?

I’ve been calling for a prolonged trading range to form and I continue to think this will be the case. I just don’t know where the top will be. The Dow seemed to hit a brick wall at 9,600, though 10,000 may end up being the real line in the sand.

My bigger concern right now is that, over the short-term, just about any trade involves an elevated level of risk. This applies to both long and short positions. It also applies to a wide variety of assets, including stocks, bonds and commodities.

Therefore, you need to consider what your actual trading time horizon is. If you are looking for assets you can hold for a year or more, I would dollar-cost average. If you’re searching for assets to hold for only a few days, keep your stops really tight. If you’re like most investors, and just want a stock that won’t go down right after you buy it, invest with caution. I wouldn’t stay out of the market, but I wouldn’t put all of my money into it either.

Ride the upward trend while you can, but understand that the market can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent. That’s fear and greed for you.
Click to expand...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
but by saying nothing, isnt that saying something?
Click to expand...

You are so deep, White. :D

Actually I thought the article's conclusion were pretty vacuous too. But the author brought up some good, interesting points in getting there, which made the article worthwhile.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well my Cfd shorts are looking good for the morning!Just announced existing U.S home sales down 2.7% for august.Dow currently -66 pts down.If the dow can hold off in negative territory for the end of trade,Expect a interesting sell off day on friday for the xao!
Could be the start of the consoldation period or the start of something more sinister?Maybe a long awaited correction?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just a reminder to all that this thread is for XAO Analysis. If you have some to contribute, please feel free to post it.

If you wish to discuss the economy in more general terms - or another topic altogether - then please take it to another thread.

Off topic posts will be removed.

Thank you for your co-operation. :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Uncle Festivus said:
XAO to be supported on the dips through to next Wednesday, ie end of qtr, then short season?

Octoberfest for the bears ;)
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Wait, wasn't September supposed to be short-season? August too, come to think of it; every month since March was supposed to be the beginning of the end.

I'm intrigued by your signature, as well.
juicing the present by mortgaging the future
Click to expand...

I'm always curious as to what alternatives people who believe this, have? For arguments sake, let's say that is exactly just what's happening. So what? What would you have the world do instead? Sacrifice the present, for the future? Society isn't a human being, it's made up of them. Some are young, some are old. Allowing the present day to be ruined, could destroy the final years of many older people, as well as potentially crippling many younger people.

Yes, let us have a terrible depression of pain for the next 20 years, so that a generation that I may never even live to see, has prosperity.

Life is all about delaying the inevitable UF. Be it delaying death, environmental ruin, or even financial collapse. The future isn't even guaranteed, and although planning and foresight is always needed, it would be unfair for too many to base life on earth around generations that may not ever even exist.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Wait, wasn't September supposed to be short-season? August too, come to think of it; every month since March was supposed to be the beginning of the end.

I'm intrigued by your signature, as well.


I'm always curious as to what alternatives people who believe this, have? For arguments sake, let's say that is exactly just what's happening. So what? What would you have the world do instead? Sacrifice the present, for the future? Society isn't a human being, it's made up of them. Some are young, some are old. Allowing the present day to be ruined, could destroy the final years of many older people, as well as potentially crippling many younger people.

Yes, let us have a terrible depression of pain for the next 20 years, so that a generation that I may never even live to see, has prosperity.

Life is all about delaying the inevitable UF. Be it delaying death, environmental ruin, or even financial collapse. The future isn't even guaranteed, and although planning and foresight is always needed, it would be unfair for too many to base life on earth around generations that may not ever even exist.
Click to expand...


No doubt about this time though, the XAO/market is gonna tank severley in October ;):D
 
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