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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

cutz said:
Surely there must be some sort of dipensation if he can show the ATO what has become of his situation, anyway feel sorry for the guy to wreck an account in such a public way, another reason i prefer keep my positions to myself, ego and trading aren't a good mix.
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disclosing positions shouldnt be an issue if correct money mangement is used. I do it with every trade I take now, I have no problems being wrong.

I do have problems being wrong and losing my whole account however
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
disclosing positions shouldnt be an issue if correct money mangement is used.
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Exactly, but i still reckon the blokes public position had a negative influence on his decision making, he was waiting to be proven correct.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Lol no I haven't lost all my money. A big hit, definitely. Interesting you say 4600, I would have thought here at 4520 then 4640-50?

On a side note, S&P futs are looking at retesting the high of around the 1019 mark. That means we have gained about 150 or so points against the S&P over the last week or so.

On a side note, what makes you all so confident that I won't make back the money I lost? Lol.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cutz said:
Exactly, but i still reckon the blokes public position had a negative influence on his decision making, he was waiting to be proven correct.
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Actually this is true. This is why I have stopped updating the blog for a while.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This rally has me confused from a non technical point of view and from read/disussing the market what i currently see is that some people have been saying it will reverse now, oops not then maybe now, oops wrong again maybe now, dam it didnt go down maybe it will now.

Finally some of these people have gone oops, I should have been long and have/will jump in after this we will see a correction.

As a post further up the page mentioned banks are now showing P/E's of 16+ there cannot be much room for further growth unless there is a lift in earnings, otherwise P/E's will start approaching the high teens to twentys.

It is however true that the economy doesnt appear to be as bad as first predicted. I have been keeping an eye out for a trigger that could send the market down but everytime key figures or statements are released they have been positive/viewed as positive.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

investorpaul said:
This rally has me confused from a non technical point of view and from read/disussing the market what i currently see is that some people have been saying it will reverse now, oops not then maybe now, oops wrong again maybe now, dam it didnt go down maybe it will now.

Finally some of these people have gone oops, I should have been long and have/will jump in after this we will see a correction.

As a post further up the page mentioned banks are now showing P/E's of 16+ there cannot be much room for further growth unless there is a lift in earnings, otherwise P/E's will start approaching the high teens to twentys.

It is however true that the economy doesnt appear to be as bad as first predicted. I have been keeping an eye out for a trigger that could send the market down but everytime key figures or statements are released they have been positive/viewed as positive.
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Paul

The only fundamental is credit.

As warned, Uncle Ben and fellow CBers are shovelling it out of helicopters.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
The only fundamental is credit.
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Wayne, do you remember the newspaper article you linked with this in it? I was looking for that post & the link - really worth re-reading and putting in the context of what is happening now, as you say.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

investorpaul said:
As a post further up the page mentioned banks are now showing P/E's of 16+ there cannot be much room for further growth unless there is a lift in earnings, otherwise P/E's will start approaching the high teens to twentys.
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So, the market is factoring in future earnings gains. Just like it was factoring losses some time ago. BHP was under 10 at one point. IPL on 4 or something. Make your own call as to where the market is going to be ahead of the curve.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
Moar insto buying today, stay long. If you wanna short, maybe a punt on the close.
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Without revealing your sources skyQuake, how do you know the institutions are buying?

My guesses would be:

1. Market Depth - seeing largish orders, eg, 25,000 units, going into the market?

2. "Announcements" made on behalf of company - eg, CBA becoming "substantial holder" for MOF

Anything else?!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
Wayne, do you remember the newspaper article you linked with this in it? I was looking for that post & the link - really worth re-reading and putting in the context of what is happening now, as you say.
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Timmy,

I remember it was Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph. Let me see if I can find it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
So, the market is factoring in future earnings gains. Just like it was factoring losses some time ago. BHP was under 10 at one point. IPL on 4 or something. Make your own call as to where the market is going to be ahead of the curve.
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I agree that it overshot when the market was crashing (based on what is now known). However I do believe the market is now factoring in earnings gains that will be hard to achieve and has over shot in this rally.

I believe the market will reverse at some point (not sure when), but it will not hit the march lows. After a pull back, it will trade sideways for 6 months plus until everyone figures out what is a realistic scenario for economic and company growth.

My opinion only.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
http://www.dowgoldzoom.com/images/dow_gold_zoom.pdf

some more food for thought here with a nice gold v dow comparison.

Look at early 1930's and early 1980's.
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The two previous major cycles suggest the higher it goes the harder it falls and if history repeats we still have some way to go to hit the bottom on that ratio.

It's interesting that the early 30's contraction was much shorter than the late 60's/70's where the contraction in the ratio was during a period of high inflation. The impact on the dow was therefore much less in nominal terms than it was in inflation adjusted terms.

http://www.dogsofthedow.com/dow1925cpilog.htm

In terms of time scale the current Dow/Gold downturn looks like being something in between but if history does repeat (in terms of the bottom value) then a return to inflation will be required if the Dow is not to reach a new nominal low.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I can see from a tech view it seems to be a new leg up,And have been following the trend with gains in the last two weeks.But i have a gut feeling with too much confidence in the air that this is deja vu(meaning that i've been burnt before buying at the top end of the market.)
The quote "Be fearful when everbody is greedy"(short end buffet quote)keeps buzzing in my head.I think ill just take it from day to day i guess!:confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Quite a few references popping up to previous corrections and the Great Depression and how we must likely follow.

Why?

Is it a psychological thing?

Or, are the conditions the same?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dark1975 said:
The quote "Be fearful when everbody is greedy"
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Hi Dark1975,

Yeah that quote needs to taken with a grain of salt, it's just another one of those throwaway lines, i.e who's game enough to lay on big unhedged shorts now, but it certainly appears that the market is overcooked at the moment.
 
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