Timmy
white swans need love too
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XAO Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
What I find interesting about the Dow/gold ratio chart is the magnitude of the fall was larger in the late 60's/70's than it was in the early 30's but the duration of the fall was much longer. The latter combined with inflation helped to cushion the impact on the Dow in nominal terms during that cycle. The duration current downtrend in the Dow/gold ratio graph is allready longer than that for the early 30's so on that comparison alone we are not following the same path as the great depression.
There's a lot of room between the the Dow hitting a new nominal low in the current cycle and the ~90% fall experienced during the great depression.
What I find interesting about the Dow/gold ratio chart is the magnitude of the fall was larger in the late 60's/70's than it was in the early 30's but the duration of the fall was much longer. The latter combined with inflation helped to cushion the impact on the Dow in nominal terms during that cycle. The duration current downtrend in the Dow/gold ratio graph is allready longer than that for the early 30's so on that comparison alone we are not following the same path as the great depression.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Agreed with your comments,Yeah the market is over cooked,But a great point you made in which makes a valid point: who's game to short the market at the moment.
]
cheers
Agreed with your comments,Yeah the market is over cooked,But a great point you made in which makes a valid point: who's game to short the market at the moment.
]
cheers
Re: XAO Analysis
I had a feeling that 4500 would be the turning point today, but didnt want to post anything for fear of embarresment. hehe
I got burned yesterday shorting before close, thinking we would get back to 4400 in the post market rounding off period, but then the german gdp figures came out, pushing up commodities, DOH. Lost 20 pips.
Anyways, as soon as I noticed Hong Kong going down I went short au200 again.
Todays short trade has done well, although yesterday I stupidly took a large position 4 times larger then what I took today. So I have only clawed back 25% of the money I lost yesterday. I wanted to take a larger position, but my emotions got the better of me.
Lesson to be learned: I should have waited till the end of the week to short the market.
FYI: 1016 is supposed the be the 38% retracement figure for the S&P 500.
Im also short on that, planning to exit at 1001.
Lets see if im a hero or zero tomorrow morning.
I had a feeling that 4500 would be the turning point today, but didnt want to post anything for fear of embarresment. hehe
I got burned yesterday shorting before close, thinking we would get back to 4400 in the post market rounding off period, but then the german gdp figures came out, pushing up commodities, DOH. Lost 20 pips.
Anyways, as soon as I noticed Hong Kong going down I went short au200 again.
Todays short trade has done well, although yesterday I stupidly took a large position 4 times larger then what I took today. So I have only clawed back 25% of the money I lost yesterday. I wanted to take a larger position, but my emotions got the better of me.
Lesson to be learned: I should have waited till the end of the week to short the market.
FYI: 1016 is supposed the be the 38% retracement figure for the S&P 500.
Im also short on that, planning to exit at 1001.
Lets see if im a hero or zero tomorrow morning.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Re: XAO Analysis
I got that e-mail too.
I got that e-mail too.
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Re: XAO Analysis
lol, I think that is the right guess.
An anything else that you won't be able to find out about unless you 'know people that know people'.
lol, I think that is the right guess.
An anything else that you won't be able to find out about unless you 'know people that know people'.
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Re: XAO Analysis
The problem is though, those who have tried to do so got burnt (unless they timed it just right. I lost almost half of my account this week, which is a bit of a minor inconvenience as I'm not planning to fund it at all. (The account is only small - I keep a large portion of my collateral elsewhere).
The problem is though, those who have tried to do so got burnt (unless they timed it just right. I lost almost half of my account this week, which is a bit of a minor inconvenience as I'm not planning to fund it at all. (The account is only small - I keep a large portion of my collateral elsewhere).
Timmy
white swans need love too
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Any shorters heaving a sigh of relief?
Any shorters heaving a sigh of relief?
Re: XAO Analysis
Ching ching, s&p 500 dropped from 1016 to 997, I don't feel embarrassed any more. Looks like I am a hero now
Although i wished I held onto my shorts in au200 from 4500. I only made 20pips when I could have made 100 pips. Doh, Im still down for the week.
Still, my lesson learned was that I should have waited till friday and not thursday to go heavy on the index shorts. I have no one to blame but myself.
Looks like s&p500 will close below 1000 for the week, this could mark the end of the bull run of the last 6 weeks.
If the s&p falls to 950ish, another 5%, that could mean the au200 will prob only fall to 4200, unless commodities fall heavily, which will happen eventually. I doubt oil will be above $70 for some time. Gold is still to drop below $950.
Ching ching, s&p 500 dropped from 1016 to 997, I don't feel embarrassed any more. Looks like I am a hero now
Although i wished I held onto my shorts in au200 from 4500. I only made 20pips when I could have made 100 pips. Doh, Im still down for the week.
Still, my lesson learned was that I should have waited till friday and not thursday to go heavy on the index shorts. I have no one to blame but myself.
Looks like s&p500 will close below 1000 for the week, this could mark the end of the bull run of the last 6 weeks.
If the s&p falls to 950ish, another 5%, that could mean the au200 will prob only fall to 4200, unless commodities fall heavily, which will happen eventually. I doubt oil will be above $70 for some time. Gold is still to drop below $950.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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Re: XAO Analysis
Why?
Demand is increasing/prices are rising/AUD is strong/Inventory is average.
Why?
Demand is increasing/prices are rising/AUD is strong/Inventory is average.
Re: XAO Analysis
I wouldnt like to be short atm.I think your risk is too high.
The trend is now up.Trying to pick the top will most likely just put a dent in your account.For now the market is saying be long and stay long imo.Until a downtrend is confirmed your going to make money being in the market and buying stocks not trying to pick a top
.good luck with being short but just be careful you dont get burnt.
I wouldnt like to be short atm.I think your risk is too high.
The trend is now up.Trying to pick the top will most likely just put a dent in your account.For now the market is saying be long and stay long imo.Until a downtrend is confirmed your going to make money being in the market and buying stocks not trying to pick a top
.good luck with being short but just be careful you dont get burnt.
Re: XAO Analysis
I am not one to be posting on forums as I enjoy to sit back and just see what you guys think.
However after being a long time( 20 odd years) market observer and trader, I thought I might just add my
worth here.
1: This is not a new bull market
2: After a huge runup since July 14(Not sure if any one here knows this date was forecast by Larry Pesavento from as early as April- excellent call he is simply the best), I think both the All Ordinaries and US markets will will enter a consolidation period lasting quite a few months before putting in new rally highs by no later than may next year before the larger bearishness continues.
I reduced my holdings on Friday
What do you guys think?
I am not one to be posting on forums as I enjoy to sit back and just see what you guys think.
However after being a long time( 20 odd years) market observer and trader, I thought I might just add my
worth here.1: This is not a new bull market
2: After a huge runup since July 14(Not sure if any one here knows this date was forecast by Larry Pesavento from as early as April- excellent call he is simply the best), I think both the All Ordinaries and US markets will will enter a consolidation period lasting quite a few months before putting in new rally highs by no later than may next year before the larger bearishness continues.
I reduced my holdings on Friday
What do you guys think?
Re: XAO Analysis
Nope, long tail indicates buying into the close.. I don't know why people are "guessing" at the pullback and just throwing shorts at the wall and hope some stick. Wouldn't one wait until a close with support becoming resistance at 990 before entering any serious shorts? Oh, what tasmanian said
What makes you say this? What are your indications that it is not, to spark discussion.
Nope, long tail indicates buying into the close.. I don't know why people are "guessing" at the pullback and just throwing shorts at the wall and hope some stick. Wouldn't one wait until a close with support becoming resistance at 990 before entering any serious shorts?
Oh, what tasmanian said However after being a long time( 20 odd years) market observer and trader, I thought I might just add my
1: This is not a new bull market
What makes you say this? What are your indications that it is not, to spark discussion.
Re: XAO Analysis
I don't think the bulls have given up yet. (in a short term time frame).
The support around es low 990s held again last night. With a fair bit of volume in US stocks and etfs at the us lod (around midnight sydney time.)
Buying into the close seemed fairly bullish.
But bears are really trying hard now.
Really pushing the market down at the sign of any bad news.
I don't think the bulls have given up yet. (in a short term time frame).
The support around es low 990s held again last night. With a fair bit of volume in US stocks and etfs at the us lod (around midnight sydney time.)
Buying into the close seemed fairly bullish.
But bears are really trying hard now.
Really pushing the market down at the sign of any bad news.
Re: XAO Analysis
My gut feeling says this is not a new bull market.However the market will do whatever it wants.Anyone that says what this new trend is or isnt is only guessing.Noone knows.
Maybe it is a new bull run?Why not?Who would have thought the market was going to be back at near 3000pts 2 years ago?Alot of people are saying this rally has gone too far.Those were probaly saying the last downtrend was going to turn at 6000,5000 oh no 4000 its gone too far has too stop soon? Im not going to guess.While the trend is up jump on.
Maybe we have hit a high for this rally?I dont know.It doesnt look that way imo it looks like we have had a decent upmove and are consolidating possibly for another upleg.Ill stay long and see what happens whilst there is no bad signs around.
Have a few down days is good for a trend to regather strength and get rid of the weaker hands.This is when you either make money or big money.If your sitting on some nice profits due to this uptrend the natural urge is too sell and lock in those profits.Hold tight and those profits can be alot bigger.Trends like this dont come around every month.
Look at a chart of the dow or xao.The trend is up and strongly and has only paused for consolidation for now.Time will tell if it breaks back up or down.The xao only broke out upwards again this week.
Just remember some of the biggest rallies are after bear markets.People say we have gone up 50% too fast.So what we are still a mile off old highs.No reason this market can rally to 5000+ in the coming months.
Let the market tell you what to do.Either thats being long,short or sitting on the sidleines having a break and refreshing the batteries when the next oppurtunity presents itself.
Good luck.Whatever happens will happen just be prepared for whatever the market decides it wants to do and try to profit from that.
My gut feeling says this is not a new bull market.However the market will do whatever it wants.Anyone that says what this new trend is or isnt is only guessing.Noone knows.
Maybe it is a new bull run?Why not?Who would have thought the market was going to be back at near 3000pts 2 years ago?Alot of people are saying this rally has gone too far.Those were probaly saying the last downtrend was going to turn at 6000,5000 oh no 4000 its gone too far has too stop soon? Im not going to guess.While the trend is up jump on.
Maybe we have hit a high for this rally?I dont know.It doesnt look that way imo it looks like we have had a decent upmove and are consolidating possibly for another upleg.Ill stay long and see what happens whilst there is no bad signs around.
Have a few down days is good for a trend to regather strength and get rid of the weaker hands.This is when you either make money or big money.If your sitting on some nice profits due to this uptrend the natural urge is too sell and lock in those profits.Hold tight and those profits can be alot bigger.Trends like this dont come around every month.
Look at a chart of the dow or xao.The trend is up and strongly and has only paused for consolidation for now.Time will tell if it breaks back up or down.The xao only broke out upwards again this week.
Just remember some of the biggest rallies are after bear markets.People say we have gone up 50% too fast.So what we are still a mile off old highs.No reason this market can rally to 5000+ in the coming months.
Let the market tell you what to do.Either thats being long,short or sitting on the sidleines having a break and refreshing the batteries when the next oppurtunity presents itself.
Good luck.Whatever happens will happen just be prepared for whatever the market decides it wants to do and try to profit from that.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Bull market?
Depends on the degree. There are secular and cyclical bulls and bulls of smaller degree I'm just not pedantic enough to know the name of.
Viewed from March till now certainly looks pretty bloody bullish to me. Taking a few steps back and the view is more uncertain.
Bull market?
Depends on the degree. There are secular and cyclical bulls and bulls of smaller degree I'm just not pedantic enough to know the name of.
Viewed from March till now certainly looks pretty bloody bullish to me. Taking a few steps back and the view is more uncertain.
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Re: XAO Analysis
If you think about reversion, then in terms of volatility, we are still in a period of contraction, in which significant retracements of the bear run are possible (and probable).
Although you'd be very late to the party if you tried to trade this definition, a bull run should be hitting the upper bands through buying pressure; then having a reactive correction, and then continuing to climb those upper bands.
You can see on the weekly Bollinger Bandwidth (lower pane) that the volatility is still excessive in terms of an historical mean, that it is still contracting, and that the price action is not yet pushing those upper bands.
I can see a move to 4900 as a possibility within this run, before a very lengthy range or more likely a swing back down to touch the lower green band.
If you think about reversion, then in terms of volatility, we are still in a period of contraction, in which significant retracements of the bear run are possible (and probable).
Although you'd be very late to the party if you tried to trade this definition, a bull run should be hitting the upper bands through buying pressure; then having a reactive correction, and then continuing to climb those upper bands.
You can see on the weekly Bollinger Bandwidth (lower pane) that the volatility is still excessive in terms of an historical mean, that it is still contracting, and that the price action is not yet pushing those upper bands.
I can see a move to 4900 as a possibility within this run, before a very lengthy range or more likely a swing back down to touch the lower green band.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Hi guys,
Thanks for your thoughts. I too still maintain a bullish bias for this market until April/May next year, however have lightened up on my holdings as I feel we will be starting a pullback soon and then a sideways consolidation in the coming months. This might be a good time to buy back at a discount before the next leg up, which I am expecting to take us to between 4960-5150.
WayneL, I agree with you about this being a secular bear, for there is nothing to suggest we have started a new Long Term Bull Market.
If one looks at some of the worst bear markets in history, from Dow Jones crash of 1929 to the Japanese experience in the 1990’s, there where great rallies back then too, these rallies made up anything between 50-61% of the decline that preceded them.
However in the end these rallies were erased.
Gfresh, the indicator I use for secular bulls and bears is the Long Term DOW/Gold Ratio that was discussed earlier. Historically this ratio has hit between as a low of 1-5 before a new bull market started. Presently it is 9.7 and I suspect it will climb to about 11 when this rally completes. You can see in the chart, that last 2 valleys occurred approximately 40 years apart. If market continues with this rhythm, then next valley will be at approximately 2019/2020. The 2 peaks have been between 34-37 years apart(fib no?) and if this rhythm is maintained then the next bull market peak will be approximately 2034. If the Dow/Gold ratio finally makes it to between 1-5, then Gold and the Dow will be approaching parity at some point.
This points to a continuation of the secular bull in Gold to about 2019. I am banking on a brief “decoupling” of the Australian Dollar relative to Gold in terms of direction of movement between now then which might set up an excellent trade in physical Gold, similar to what happened in the late 1979-1980.
Hi guys,
Thanks for your thoughts. I too still maintain a bullish bias for this market until April/May next year, however have lightened up on my holdings as I feel we will be starting a pullback soon and then a sideways consolidation in the coming months. This might be a good time to buy back at a discount before the next leg up, which I am expecting to take us to between 4960-5150.
WayneL, I agree with you about this being a secular bear, for there is nothing to suggest we have started a new Long Term Bull Market.
If one looks at some of the worst bear markets in history, from Dow Jones crash of 1929 to the Japanese experience in the 1990’s, there where great rallies back then too, these rallies made up anything between 50-61% of the decline that preceded them.
However in the end these rallies were erased.
Gfresh, the indicator I use for secular bulls and bears is the Long Term DOW/Gold Ratio that was discussed earlier. Historically this ratio has hit between as a low of 1-5 before a new bull market started. Presently it is 9.7 and I suspect it will climb to about 11 when this rally completes. You can see in the chart, that last 2 valleys occurred approximately 40 years apart. If market continues with this rhythm, then next valley will be at approximately 2019/2020. The 2 peaks have been between 34-37 years apart(fib no?) and if this rhythm is maintained then the next bull market peak will be approximately 2034. If the Dow/Gold ratio finally makes it to between 1-5, then Gold and the Dow will be approaching parity at some point.
This points to a continuation of the secular bull in Gold to about 2019. I am banking on a brief “decoupling” of the Australian Dollar relative to Gold in terms of direction of movement between now then which might set up an excellent trade in physical Gold, similar to what happened in the late 1979-1980.