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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack
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So had I, to the downside :eek:

I got the idea right and I even picked the exact moment (thought it would happen on NFPs), but the wrong damn way! :eek:

Lucky for those stat arb guys getting it even more wrong than me! Gave me a free ride the other way!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack
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Take note of the GBPJPY correlation break away from EURUSD as-well. Total flight to risker assets took place after NFP (and all the other news that came out that day (AIG posting a profit!)). Interesting to note that any bad news coming out now is pretty much shrugged off...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Back on the XAO, a potentially significant difference not shown on my earlier chart is noted on the chart below.

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
but had information the figure would be better than expected.
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Got an interesting chart of the sycom leading up to the news release.

I think you werent alone in that 'better than expected' camp.

USD longs should do well.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
I think you werent alone in that 'better than expected' camp.

USD longs should do well.
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Yes, the camp I get the data from also advise most IBs, CBs and the Squawk gets the info too. So it's pretty well know if it will be better or worse than expectations (expectations of expectations ;)) beforehand and some take the gamble to position for it obviously.

USD longs should do well indeed, this for me is a high conviction trade, so on that note, the leverage is excessive! :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Some are betting this rally is about to end. Bring it on. Go the bears!

VIX Shows S&P 500 Swoon in September as Worst Month Approaches

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities.

Traders are betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, will increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, right before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

ivant said:
On a side note, does anyone know why there was a rally from 1.30 onwards. News from Asia?
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Ill have a go at the answer.

There was alot of data released today at lunch from China and Japan.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

But none of it seemed better than expected.

Possibly BHP related. (reports tomorrow I think-might be getting better than expected results) The dips in bhp today attracted volume. see chart.

Plus NAB business confidence at 1130 today was better than last time. Maybe delayed rally after the data.

Also there was significant LOD volume on the major asian index futures charts today at lunchtime eg HSI.

Copper and oil took off at that time as well.

There was also some large trades in the spi which I interpret as bullish but others would argue not.
Anyway hope that helps.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Im a n00b but Ill have a go at the answer.

There was alot of data released today at lunch from China and Japan.

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

But none of it seemed better than expected.

Possibly BHP related. (reports tomorrow I think-might be getting better than expected results) The dips in bhp today attracted volume. see chart.

Plus NAB business confidence at 1130 today was better than last time. Maybe delayed rally after the data.

Also there was significant LOD volume on the major asian index futures charts today at lunchtime eg HSI.

Copper and oil took off at that time as well.

There was also some large trades in the spi which I interpret as bullish but others would argue not.
Anyway hope that helps.
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Thanks man. Yea I was a little surprised by that. We lifted like a chopper out of nowhere. I get the feeling its more of a technical move (there was some support in a short-term channel there). I know the move wasn't massive, but futures closed above the previous highs. Interesting stuff. I guess yesterday's less-than-logical move was reversed.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It is safe to venture out of your caves Bears.....

Get out in the fresh air and romp and stomp, stretch those tight limbs, butt heads with some Bulls, they are tired and weakened from too much gorging.

It is your time to shine, at least for the time being....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
It is safe to venture out of your caves Bears.....

Get out in the fresh air and romp and stomp, stretch those tight limbs, butt heads with some Bulls, they are tired and weakened from too much gorging.

It is your time to shine, at least for the time being....
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haha nice call,Yeah agreed the dow opened 63 down which i spose its a bit early to call,But looking at the gloom news on jobs in the u.s,It looks like the dow will fall today.Now currently 84 points down.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

DOW JONES: please note: Just like to compare dow with xao
dow.jpg
xao.jpg

The graphs above:The dow and the xao
Note on the xao,its my personal view that with the stochastic Oscillator is close to the top as of today,It's my view that the market will either go sideways for a few days,But im thinking the xao will make a correction within the week and go downwards.
Well that's my view! Like to hear from other traders view of the upcoming month of the xao?
Sorry the thread is a bit messy,Missing alot of things e.g : resistance levels,it's late and im so tired.:(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.

On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely). Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot. USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar. Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.

Shorts covered at the close for a 5 point loss, so not too bad considering. And got a USD long on.

Note: A USD long should perform better in various environments. If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD. If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally. Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely. A situation to keep very closely monitored. It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.
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Looks tonight like those good job numbers friday night were a good excuse to have a 'blow off top'. And maybe the USD is still a flight to safety indicator.
Im hoping for support around ES 990 (spi 4275), it has been a strong s/r line for the last 2 weeks.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Looks tonight like those good job numbers friday night were a good excuse to have a 'blow off top'. And maybe the USD is still a flight to safety indicator.
Im hoping for support around ES 990 (spi 4275), it has been a strong s/r line for the last 2 weeks.
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Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.

I'm not so sure the USD 'flight to safety' trade is still in play. It appears so when you watch intraday, but the big moves happen independently. If I'm not mistaken last night (first night after the correlation breakdown), S&P was up, Euro down, and tonight S&P down, Euro up. Still think the long USD and short S&P play is the best trade out there, only one way to loose and that would defy all reasoning behind recent price action.

990 good call, I actually was watching the same level and bought oil earlier (those cagey pit traders will usually berg the bid, pre-empting the bounce in S&P), was holding up well and I was quite proud that I was pre-empting the pre-empters, but then they swept it down 40 ticks!!!! :eek: Should have just stuck to the S&P long!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

>Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.

I reckon it's just a few nerves before the fed announcement this evening and ahead of the treasury auction. If that is all as 'expected' then I reckon we'll see another move up back to the previous highs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

I think it's just more of a wait and see attitude causing traders to hold off. Last three days have declining volume on the DJ I notice.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

surfziggy said:
>Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.

I reckon it's just a few nerves before the fed announcement this evening and ahead of the treasury auction. If that is all as 'expected' then I reckon we'll see another move up back to the previous highs.
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Depends what you expect to see out of the Fed?

Treasury auctions have been running for a long time now, and there are auctions nearly every night in their big weeks, which one are you talking about?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just the reaction to it. That and the reaction to the feds comments on interest rates. Which by the looks of things today was good!

Looks to me that we're in a continued uptrend and until that changes I'm bullish. Of course it depends on your time frame! And yours may be different from mine.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey Mr C,
I have a hunch from volume today in Asia that tonight's round of US data, jobs and retail, might be 'worse than expected' and maybe a down night by the end.

Have you heard anything?

thx.

ps. Aussiest, try this site for some brief discussion of nightly auctions and how they went. Not sure about live results.
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
 
Re: XAO Analysis

2400 any moment now.. any moment..

running_of_the_bulls.jpg
 
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