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... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack
theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack
but had information the figure would be better than expected.
I think you werent alone in that 'better than expected' camp.
USD longs should do well.
On a side note, does anyone know why there was a rally from 1.30 onwards. News from Asia?
Im a n00b but Ill have a go at the answer.
There was alot of data released today at lunch from China and Japan.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
But none of it seemed better than expected.
Possibly BHP related. (reports tomorrow I think-might be getting better than expected results) The dips in bhp today attracted volume. see chart.
Plus NAB business confidence at 1130 today was better than last time. Maybe delayed rally after the data.
Also there was significant LOD volume on the major asian index futures charts today at lunchtime eg HSI.
Copper and oil took off at that time as well.
There was also some large trades in the spi which I interpret as bullish but others would argue not.
Anyway hope that helps.
It is safe to venture out of your caves Bears.....
Get out in the fresh air and romp and stomp, stretch those tight limbs, butt heads with some Bulls, they are tired and weakened from too much gorging.
It is your time to shine, at least for the time being....
I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.
On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely). Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot. USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar. Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.
Shorts covered at the close for a 5 point loss, so not too bad considering. And got a USD long on.
Note: A USD long should perform better in various environments. If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD. If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally. Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely. A situation to keep very closely monitored. It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.
Looks tonight like those good job numbers friday night were a good excuse to have a 'blow off top'. And maybe the USD is still a flight to safety indicator.
Im hoping for support around ES 990 (spi 4275), it has been a strong s/r line for the last 2 weeks.
>Yeh, tonight was the first decent fall in quite some time, without immediate buying of dips.
I reckon it's just a few nerves before the fed announcement this evening and ahead of the treasury auction. If that is all as 'expected' then I reckon we'll see another move up back to the previous highs.
there are auctions nearly every night in their big weeks
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