XAO Technical Analysis
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Sean K
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Re: XAO Analysis
I have current p/e at 17. Ooo, that does seem high.
I assume you measure that by price and earnings. What's their p/e's gfresh? What will they be after reporting? How does that sit historically, and compared to peers? How's their growth profile? Is this factored in?
I have current p/e at 17. Ooo, that does seem high.
Re: XAO Analysis
EPS this year will be 210cps if you're lucky (counting reduction in coal, 30% reduction in iron ore sold/dumped on spot market, coal price reductions, etc, etc) vs last year of 285cps or 26% down. So at a forward estimate that is 18x 2.10 = $37.80 which is roughly the now price, and is a best case based on profit.
Minerals may have improved but they're still way off the highs.. Remembering many of these things only really improved in the last 3 months. The share price is now only 24% off highs of $50, almost as if recovery is guaranteed.
Then if you look at our $AUD right now which is nudging on 84c, on it's way to 90c ? that's not really going to help either moving forward into 2010.
Plus then you gotta take 30% off for the price they will be receiving for iron ore kicking off.. plus european demand which is a big earner for them (1/3 or something last I checked) is still pretty bad, plus japan still in the docks. US makes up a small share of earnings so not as important. China keeping the horse up, but may fade later in this year.. so still many uncertainties.
I'm rambling here as I don't have time right now to go through every single factor, but I reckon we'll see an adjustment soon to some reality.
EPS this year will be 210cps if you're lucky (counting reduction in coal, 30% reduction in iron ore sold/dumped on spot market, coal price reductions, etc, etc) vs last year of 285cps or 26% down. So at a forward estimate that is 18x 2.10 = $37.80 which is roughly the now price, and is a best case based on profit.
Minerals may have improved but they're still way off the highs.. Remembering many of these things only really improved in the last 3 months. The share price is now only 24% off highs of $50, almost as if recovery is guaranteed.
Then if you look at our $AUD right now which is nudging on 84c, on it's way to 90c ? that's not really going to help either moving forward into 2010.
Plus then you gotta take 30% off for the price they will be receiving for iron ore kicking off.. plus european demand which is a big earner for them (1/3 or something last I checked) is still pretty bad, plus japan still in the docks. US makes up a small share of earnings so not as important. China keeping the horse up, but may fade later in this year.. so still many uncertainties.
I'm rambling here as I don't have time right now to go through every single factor, but I reckon we'll see an adjustment soon to some reality.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Re: XAO Analysis
Jeez , I wish the funds would stop scalping and just let the bloody thing fall to 2400, where it should be and then go sideways for 6 months or so.
gg
Jeez , I wish the funds would stop scalping and just let the bloody thing fall to 2400, where it should be and then go sideways for 6 months or so.
gg
explod
explod
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Re: XAO Analysis
It has no mind of its own gg, just seems to follow the Dow which they also should ..."just let the bloody thing fall"... to near naught, maybe ?
It has no mind of its own gg, just seems to follow the Dow which they also should ..."just let the bloody thing fall"... to near naught, maybe ?
Re: XAO Analysis
What if we were knew in early 2009 that we were not going into a Depression merely another recession, that China and much of Asia were not going to slump into some US led malaise and that there would be encouraging signs of US recovery within 6 months. Would the market have fallen to 3100 or increased to where it is now? In years gone by when the US sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. Perhaps we're entering a new period where if the US gets a cold, some economies may just sneeze.
What if we were knew in early 2009 that we were not going into a Depression merely another recession, that China and much of Asia were not going to slump into some US led malaise and that there would be encouraging signs of US recovery within 6 months. Would the market have fallen to 3100 or increased to where it is now? In years gone by when the US sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. Perhaps we're entering a new period where if the US gets a cold, some economies may just sneeze.
Re: XAO Analysis
Where it "should" be or is that where you "hope" it will be? I'd rather trade with the flow - whatever that direction may be. But I am upset by the pain countless small investors have suffered these many past months and hope they are not further hurt.
Where it "should" be or is that where you "hope" it will be? I'd rather trade with the flow - whatever that direction may be. But I am upset by the pain countless small investors have suffered these many past months and hope they are not further hurt.
Re: XAO Analysis
Just wondering if any other traders are entertaining the idea of last friday night's US action and jobs data as a blow off top in the markets? A kind of sucker rally.
There was a fair bit of volume in the peaks of the ES YM and etfs after the jobs news, and the USD climbed significantly, which can happen around tops.
The ES fell into the close falling 8 points off the HOD. We'll see I guess.
Just wondering if any other traders are entertaining the idea of last friday night's US action and jobs data as a blow off top in the markets? A kind of sucker rally.
There was a fair bit of volume in the peaks of the ES YM and etfs after the jobs news, and the USD climbed significantly, which can happen around tops.
The ES fell into the close falling 8 points off the HOD. We'll see I guess.
Re: XAO Analysis
It's funny that you say that Broadway. I have no charts or evidence to back it up, but last night i got the distinct feeling that this is the dead cat.
Gettin' ready to short
:
It's funny that you say that Broadway. I have no charts or evidence to back it up, but last night i got the distinct feeling that this is the dead cat.
Gettin' ready to short
:
explod
explod
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Re: XAO Analysis
Have a look at it on bigcharts (daily) take out the first hour of trade and we have a reverse hammer.
I did not follow last night, does the end of the first hour coincide with the actual release of the job numbers.
It's funny that you say that Broadway. I have no charts or evidence to back it up, but last night i got the distinct feeling that this is the dead cat.
Gettin' ready to short
Have a look at it on bigcharts (daily) take out the first hour of trade and we have a reverse hammer.
I did not follow last night, does the end of the first hour coincide with the actual release of the job numbers.
Timmy
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Re: XAO Analysis
I am not sure I follow you here explod, but this is the timeline, which may answer your question?
All New York times (not the newspaper!):
8.30 AM Non-farm Payroll figures released.
9.30 AM US Stock exchanges open.
The stock index futures were trading at 8.30AM (ES, NQ etc.) on the 'overnight' session of Globex.
Hope this helps?
I am not sure I follow you here explod, but this is the timeline, which may answer your question?
All New York times (not the newspaper!):
8.30 AM Non-farm Payroll figures released.
9.30 AM US Stock exchanges open.
The stock index futures were trading at 8.30AM (ES, NQ etc.) on the 'overnight' session of Globex.
Hope this helps?
Re: XAO Analysis
Updated charts - playing the game so far.
I have been doing some research into other periods were the Aussie stock market has suffered major crashes and due to the XAO's limited history the best one to compare this current one too is the 1987 crash.
Both periods went virtually vertical before the crashes (bubbles growing & bubbles bursting -I have these periods showing up quite clearly on other charts and can post them if anyone is interested). Both periods also suffered around a 50% decline (so far for current crash).
Anyway I'd thought I'd look at some chart patterns from 1987 to see if I could get any idea of what patterns to look for and maybe be able to trade. I was actually quite surprised to see the similarities presented in the charts(weekly) so far. While not identical they are close enough for me to be keeping a closer eye on to see how it plays out from here - remember don't be a dick for a tick
Disclaimer: This is a look at possibilities based purely on chart patterns and is more for general interest (I found it interesting at least) and discussion then anything else. I'm not comparing fundamentals or economic climates between these eras and tbh have no interest in discussing them.
Updated charts - playing the game so far.
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Timmy
white swans need love too
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explod
explod
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Re: XAO Analysis
It does but shoots my theory in the foot.
Thanks for posting that out.
Cheers explod
It does but shoots my theory in the foot.
Thanks for posting that out.
Cheers explod
tech/a
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Re: XAO Analysis
Looks reasonable 4s
Looks reasonable 4s
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Re: XAO Analysis
Interesting stuff nomore4s.
This is MTPredictors auto routine take on it. The last two Wave C turning points were predicted accurately, lets see if it powers on through this time.
My stops are all adjusted and tight at the moment.
(click to expand)
Interesting stuff nomore4s.
This is MTPredictors auto routine take on it. The last two Wave C turning points were predicted accurately, lets see if it powers on through this time.
My stops are all adjusted and tight at the moment.
(click to expand)
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Re: XAO Analysis
Boggo;
When you say the last points were "predicted" accurately, do you mean they actually were predicted before they happened?
Boggo;
When you say the last points were "predicted" accurately, do you mean they actually were predicted before they happened?
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Re: XAO Analysis
I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.
On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely). Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot. USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar. Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.
Shorts covered at the close for a 5 point loss, so not too bad considering. And got a USD long on.
Note: A USD long should perform better in various environments. If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD. If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally. Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely. A situation to keep very closely monitored. It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.
I was thinking the same going into the figures Broadway, assumed a bad figure would get massacred (considering this is the last area that still needs to be stabilized), but had information the figure would be better than expected, so I dumped a few contracts in there short after the figure and subsequent spike, but didn't get what I wanted, I wanted to see more selling pressure actually go down and hit the bid following the spike.
On the 60 minute, this is a perfect buy zone, hitting the top of the recent sideways zone on the retest (talking about S&P in all of this, but XAO relates pretty closely). Not to mention, the way the Euro tanked well and truly back through the top of that recent sideways zone, leads me to believe the correlation is shot. USD as a flight to safety has now left the radar. Will have to see how this plays out this wk, but it's what I will be looking for.
Shorts covered at the close for a 5 point loss, so not too bad considering. And got a USD long on.
Note: A USD long should perform better in various environments. If the correlation has broken down, and equities continue to rally, so should the USD. If however, this was just a shock but not enough to break it, and we do get a pullback in equities, the USD should rally. Of course, it could work the other way too (but this would fly in the face of the reason the correlation broke down in the first place), so I see it as less likely. A situation to keep very closely monitored. It's been said before countless times, but these are truly interesting and exciting times.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yes, based on the current pattern it projects a likely outcome if it "plays by the rules"
Slight thread drift, example using RCR on 31/07 showing likely target (ignore the entry/exit bits)
(click to enlarge)
Yes, based on the current pattern it projects a likely outcome if it "plays by the rules"
Slight thread drift, example using RCR on 31/07 showing likely target (ignore the entry/exit bits)
(click to enlarge)
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white_goodman
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Re: XAO Analysis
theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack
theres some strong weekly signals of USD strength coming in... particularly the GBPUSD which im following... I had previously said I expected the correlation to break down, lets see if this thing starts to crack