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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I agree it could go either way.. and it's very similar to last year.

The only reason I say 'now rather than later' is that the catalysts for such a move, such as high oil prices, high dollar (hurting exporters, while yes commodities also going up, reducing the effect a little), worries over in the US over housing, and Chinese starting to get quite worried about over-inflation, are more present now.

If they were passed over, then surely that would give greater reason for a larger correction within the next 12 months which would be worse news, because the problems are still underlying.. A break under 6200 in the XAO would may still be less than 5%, and give room for further rises this year. For it to get truly nasty there would have to be a lot of continuing (very) negative news over subsequent days/weeks to cause it to form a downward trend. No local news to suggest that at the moment.

Also a constantly oscillating index may not encourage further investment, and wealth into the stock market to drive things further when some people already have doubts forming. While you can view the current moves as consolidation (positive), you can also see it equally as uncertainty (negative). Looks more like the later to me, I would have thought consolidation would be a lot flatter (e.g. mid-July 06 as you've shown).

This article here suggests such a correction is both overdue and probably welcome: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22028586-5001942,00.html
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I was just going to add on the graph of our ASX200 vs their S&P500 that as you can see our ASX200 is still rocketing along at some 25% up on last year.

We are still ahead of the US, but if they go down any significant extent, we're going down to follow.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

gfresh said:
I agree it could go either way.. and it's very similar to last year.

Also a constantly oscillating index may not encourage further investment, and wealth into the stock market to drive things further when some people already have doubts forming. While you can view the current moves as consolidation (positive), you can also see it equally as uncertainty (negative). Looks more like the later to me, I would have thought consolidation would be a lot flatter (e.g. mid-July 06 as you've shown).

This article here suggests such a correction is both overdue and probably welcome: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,22028586-5001942,00.html
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I say good luck taking trading advice from a newspaper. That is the oldest bull market story for the last 200 years. " We need a 10% correction"

I have been saying that I think negative sentiment is good for new rises it leaves a lot of people to still come into the market. The last thing you want as a Bull is everyone looking for new highs. On my blog this morning I posted this chart. Has no one noticed the two lower lows and ever so slight change in the falls recently?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Agree with you TH...not much time to add much here except that several sectors too were at support, where they had bounced before...some closes off the lows yesterday too suggesting buyrs coming back. It is realistic to expect a range for some time yet.

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just taking the timescale out a bit to weekly, there seems to be a number of things showing up which have been played out today in a big way.
The first is the banks underperformance relative to the rest of the market & the catch up today. The second being BHP's parabolic top formation and 'correction' (and tendancy to buy assets at the top of the cycle & pay too much al la RIO?).
Each one without the other & we get the sideways action of the last few months. What we need is a synchronised effort with the 2 sectors firing together for a sustained period, if only for the blow-off top.
Until then, & taking our que from the US, not much to indicate a breakout style resumption of the bull I'm afraid. MACD rolling over?
Also, something about tax free super redemptions now having an effect?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I say good luck taking trading advice from a newspaper. That is the oldest bull market story for the last 200 years. " We need a 10% correction"
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There is no trading advice in that article, just some comments from senior analysts :confused: Anyhow.. back to the technical analysis here.

We've just had 11 trading days above 6360, and today a large upward candle, pushing us very close to that 6430 mark which has been a resistance level - surely this is a fairly positive signal?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

A strong overnight performance from the Yanks, and maybe XAO will break out its range?

Interesting how todays rise was almost the exact reverse of yesterdays fall.

A close above 6450 would just about confirm it for me.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I make a gap of around 30 outstanding from yesterdays open - looks as tho we could leave that one now for the trip back down
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
A strong overnight performance from the Yanks, and maybe XAO will break out its range?

Interesting how todays rise was almost the exact reverse of yesterdays fall.

A close above 6450 would just about confirm it for me.
Click to expand...

Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
Looks to me like its breakout time :cool:
And yes -- That means blue skies :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
Looks to me like its breakout time :cool:
And yes -- That means blue skies :D
Click to expand...


Just a darn shame it wasn't a Tuesday!

Cheers,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This leveling out period from May has certainly sorted the wheat out from the chaff.With a million new explorers out there and only some that are gonna make it , this spell has been great for research.:2twocents
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XJO / XAO

Guys I should have updated yesterday afternoon but i was to lazy after seeing us not only hold our highs but close above the high made in the morning it totally changed my mind. seeing yesterdays break of the minor trend line triggered me to take a short which was stopped yesterday morning.

Main point that made me take a long yesterday was the dynamic of the markets changed buyers were buying there was no afternoon retreat, 2nd we confirmed the support level with a strong push. see Trembling hands chart and G fresh for the support line i am talking about.

today looks like the real deal technically, (and all nizars good points) ig xjo is already above 6400. But until i see a close at 4.00pm on xjo above or strongly above 6400 i am still 50/50. I prefer to see a strong rise over 6400 close on or above 6410.

great sights guys and good trading.

Can, Nizar happy days on sek huh i saw i made red yesterday not to worry the angle was way to high looks like 5x1 so let it retrace to the 33 - 50% point and look for it to rebound great add oppertuity there. I sold already took profits but now I look at it feel i was a touch to hasty, I may look to jump on board as well if it drops to that % range!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone? ;)

Gee it dosen't take much to get Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?


Trade_It said:
XJO / XAO

today looks like the real deal technically, (and all nizars good points) ig xjo is already above 6400. But until i see a close at 4.00pm on xjo above or strongly above 6400 i am still 50/50. I prefer to see a strong rise over 6400 close on or above 6410.
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Trade_It I think you are right there.
Google just got hammed after the close on its report. As I have been posting recently our market is starting to look good, but I'm not going to get a rush of bullish blood today, It will be easy as she goes today.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone? ;)

Gee it dosen't take much to get Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?
Click to expand...

Yes, one eye on the bigger picture; yesterday's gains only made back the previous days losses. Still to convincingly 'break' the top of the trading range on both XAO & XJO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
What, were have all the "test of the lows" gone? ;)

Gee it dosen't take much to get Bearish to Bullish swing here does it?
Click to expand...

Why would that surprise you?

nizar said:
Well DJIA up 82 pts to record close, base metals up, gold up, oil up.
Looks to me like its breakout time :cool:
And yes -- That means blue skies :D
Click to expand...

That's the not the first time you've said that recently Nizar, and everytime you do the market tanks. Keep up that kind of record and you'll be almost as good at forecasting as I am:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
That's the not the first time you've said that recently Nizar, and everytime you do the market tanks. Keep up that kind of record and you'll be almost as good at forecasting as I am:D
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LOL yes Prof.
Thats why im a trader, not an ANALYST! LOL ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hmm... the xao closed at 6421.8... pretty much right on the resistence line. Given that today is Friday, and the upwards movement towards the end of the day, I would like to say that we are taking off. But then, I guess it pretty much depends on the US now, as there are hardly any news to come by in Australia as we slowly move into the profit annoucement season.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
Hmm... the xao closed at 6421.8... pretty much right on the resistence line. Given that today is Friday, and the upwards movement towards the end of the day, I would like to say that we are taking off. But then, I guess it pretty much depends on the US now, as there are hardly any news to come by in Australia as we slowly move into the profit annoucement season.
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Looks like the yanks are raining on the parade.

Dow -150 atm, SP500 -16
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Looks like the yanks are raining on the parade.

Dow -150 atm, SP500 -16
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Google and Cat spoiling the show. Seems like it's mostly financials being sold off recently and tech is taking a break.

Shame for our markets, I thought the hold above 6450 was pretty bullish short term.
 
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