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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Wavepicker

I think your analysis is right on the money. Thanks for posting your chart great stuff.

There are problems with the magic number of 6400 on the xjo and for the highs set on the all ords as well.

Whether on not the dow rises or falls does not as you have all seen off the last 4 days tell us that we will follow into blue sky's. If you want a example see the charts of both indexes this time last year the dow broke out in july we banded till September.

I am also with wavepicker now thinking we will stay in this band. We have had lots of good reasons to bust out. The buyer confidence at the current time just aint there.

So back to the side lines for me right now on my xjo trades.
Click to expand...

Agree, theres definately bearish sentiment in the local markets.
Significant resistance at the 6400 level now, looks like we will range trade for a while.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
Agree, theres definately bearish sentiment in the local markets.
Significant resistance at the 6400 level now, looks like we will range trade for a while.
Click to expand...

I would think the more bearish sentiment the greater chance we will have of breaking out on a short cover rally or sucking underinvested traders into the market. It seems that everyone is thinking the same thing i.e. range bound. Is there no one out there that is Bullish after a two month consolidation?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Wavepicker

I think your analysis is right on the money. Thanks for posting your chart great stuff.

There are problems with the magic number of 6400 on the xjo and for the highs set on the all ords as well.

Whether on not the dow rises or falls does not as you have all seen off the last 4 days tell us that we will follow into blue sky's. If you want a example see the charts of both indexes this time last year the dow broke out in july we banded till September.

I am also with wavepicker now thinking we will stay in this band. We have had lots of good reasons to bust out. The buyer confidence at the current time just aint there.

So back to the side lines for me right now on my xjo trades.
Click to expand...

Not sure TI,

Lets. see what comes of it, we might need a few more minor subdivisions to finish off first. Have not taken trade yet will decide tonight, the market has put in one minor push today to finish the pattern but at the end of the day we are still talking probabilities when assessing any pattern so will monitor and if all looks good will take it. If it works out, should be good for a few days at least though

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just went short TI,

with stop just above last nights swing high and trade triggered after market fell away at the 75% of the range of the 1st swing down from the high(lower high). Will add to position slowly if trade continues to go in my favour.

Cheers
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
I would think the more bearish sentiment the greater chance we will have of breaking out on a short cover rally or sucking underinvested traders into the market. It seems that everyone is thinking the same thing i.e. range bound. Is there no one out there that is Bullish after a two month consolidation?
Click to expand...

I'll step out and say I am bullish, still. It's the goldilocks economy in the developed world and party time in emerging markets don't you know???

I still look to October this year, as 20 yr anniversity of Black Monday and 10 yr anniversary for Asian crisis, for any actual fireworks. This sideways move is just time chatching up with what price has done since the beginning of the year. The US has already broken out 2 days ago and support is holding steady on the S&P500 at the 1550 level. XAO is still coiling for some reason...whatever the reasons I don't see them as terminal. Residual shell-shock from RIO perhaps?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

near term we could see a swing lower to fill the gap but overall given the partial decline printed, breakout above and o/seas action you'd have to think we are going higher - unless its a bull-trap. so I'm giving the trend the benefit of the doubt & treating this 2month-odd consolidation as a continuation pattern

asxgapld1.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi wavepicker feel free to stick any o/seas stuff on the international index thread.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood that gap has well and truly been filled today on the SPI if not yet on the cash. What’s the charting software you use? I never get those gaps mine starts the day where it finished the day before.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Trembling Hand - yes I guess if you are taking last nights close as todays open you won't get these gaps. to be fair its a bigcharts chart that one so may not be 100% on the money, was away from my system at the time was just to show the move really.

ASX200 (which I'm using as a surrogate for XAO here - not the same thing but good enough for what I'm doing) is getting close to it now. my point was that once the gap is filled I am looking for higher, imo, but at the moment the gap still exists for the method I use

2269353602.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

gap filled seems to have found support all looks a bit corrective (just using the same chart TH to show the fill)

asxgap180707ly2.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
gap filled seems to have found support all looks a bit corrective (just using the same chart TH to show the fill)
Click to expand...

No prob Edwood. Was just interested because the opening auction makes gaps not that common in our market.

I think its getting pegged to 6350 for options expiry tomorrow.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
No prob Edwood. Was just interested because the opening auction makes gaps not that common in our market.

I think its getting pegged to 6350 for options expiry tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Interesting thoughts Trembling Hand, hadn't even thought of options expiry.

It will be interesting to see if it can be pegged to that level tomorrow- that selloff in the U.S this morning didn't look too pretty, and has barely stopped all day. It looks like we might see 6200 again fairly soon.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That XFJ chart is going to be looking pretty good by the end of trade today. It has just gone green. Just about completed a change of trend. I have been banging on about that for weeks and if so I reckon new highs aren’t that far away. Has made a higher Low 5 days ago and now showing relative strength to the rest of the market. Being the largest cap sector in the market it’s important.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
That XFJ chart is going to be looking pretty good by the end of trade today. It has just gone green. Just about completed a change of trend. I have been banging on about that for weeks and if so I reckon new highs aren’t that far away. Has made a higher Low 5 days ago and now showing relative strength to the rest of the market. Being the largest cap sector in the market it’s important.
Click to expand...

maybe. I'm still not convinced at this stage. As much as the financials could push the index up, I can't see them doing that if the U.S tanks. For me, it's a case of whether the action on the ES night session was the real thing or not. It's pretty rare to see that kind of movement at that hour, so my first thought is that it very well could be. We'll know for sure in a few hours:)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Based on the current sentiment in the market and now that we are really in this band, any negitive influence on the street could see us return to support and retest it.

So some more choppy times to come I think. But looking for a bounce off the bottom to play a xjo Long!
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Will be an interesting night.. some negative sentiment for Bernanke's speech already seems to be built into our market.

To be honest, I think a fall of the XAO below the resistance of 6200 would actually be a good thing to sort things out now, rather than later.. this sideways wave action really isn't doing much either way.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

gfresh said:
Will be an interesting night.. some negative sentiment for Bernanke's speech already seems to be built into our market.

To be honest, I think a fall of the XAO below the resistance of 6200 would actually be a good thing to sort things out now, rather than later.. this sideways wave action really isn't doing much either way.
Click to expand...

gfresh,

I would like to see this continuation pattern hold, a drop though support would suggest further down side and more unstable times. I don't agree, it wouldn't be a good thing. The side ways action is doing some thing, its a consolidation period that adds more punch to the break out the longer its stays in the range.

I have posted a chart of this time last year as you can see we were in a range that lasted a couple of months then broke out. funny to say also that the dow also broke out before we did like last year and it broke out in july as well just like this year lol and inflation was the main worry! oh and who said history does not repeat! this year its combined with sub prime.

Some differnces from this range to last year, there is more over head resistence this time to last time. Last year was oppersite more base touches and only two over head. Last may was a real correction into the range this year we have not had a true sell off into this range. Just some observations.

Good trading.

See chart.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
gfresh,

I would like to see this continuation pattern hold, a drop though support would suggest further down side and more unstable times. I don't agree, it wouldn't be a good thing. The side ways action is doing some thing, its a consolidation period that adds more punch to the break out the longer its stays in the range.

I have posted a chart of this time last year as you can see we were in a range that lasted a couple of months then broke out. funny to say also that the dow also broke out before we did like last year and it broke out in july as well just like this year lol and inflation was the main worry! oh and who said history does not repeat! this year its combined with sub prime.

Some differnces from this range to last year, there is more over head resistence this time to last time. Last year was oppersite more base touches and only two over head. Last may was a real correction into the range this year we have not had a true sell off into this range. Just some observations.

Good trading.

See chart.
Click to expand...

correction dow started trend in july broke range in august.

cheers:)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade it
Yes I agree we have not had a down side break to a consolidation in over 3 or more years. If it broke that would be worry.
 
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