XAO Technical Analysis

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

You'll have egg on your face when it stays exactly the same!!

ha ha, time to write some straddles or butterflies or whatever they are then!

 

[tcoates]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, well. No-one bothering to make comment on the pathetic performance of the XAO today and perhaps where to from here?

Given the performance today though the direction was obvious - Down.

Using monthly pivot points, over the last few months the XAO has been trading between the support (or lower) and the monthly pivot point.

So unless it gets above 3720 (or thereabouts) it ain't going upwards, and support is at 3152.

Santa rally? (Or will the Grinch steal the Christmas rally?)

Tim

PS. All the while I will sit on the sidelines watching the chaos unfold.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

Santa rally? (Or will the Grinch steal the Christmas rally?)

I think we've been $crooged!

 

[cbacamden]

Re: XAO Analysis

You guys that are so sure that the direction is down - are you trading that way ??

I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.

Is anyone actually trading the xjo at the moment ??

I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)

Maybe its just me - but Im not going to express my thoughts on a subject unless im willing to put my money behind it.

 

[shaunQ]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.

I think very few people would consider themselves an expert on this forum. Whether or not they are trading is irrelevant, perhaps the smartest people aren't. Who are you to judge? Personally, if someone continually posts there trade as you have I consider it just to be ramping and is of very little interest, especially on an XAO Analysis thread.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

cbacamden I guess the real question is does having some skin in the game make the comments any more relevant??

Even more important question is...does that mean that the comment is more likely to be correct.

I find the people that actually trade have a much lower accuracy level as far as calls. It aint about being right. IMHO

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)

unless you're trading barriers you're probably getting ripped.

I find the people that actually trade have a much lower accuracy level as far as calls. It aint about being right. IMHO

Hahahah we all used to be armchair experts! Its a whole new ball game once you're trading. Money management becomes far more important than accurate calls.

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

You guys that are so sure that the direction is down - are you trading that way ??

I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.

Is anyone actually trading the xjo at the moment ??

I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)

Maybe its just me - but Im not going to express my thoughts on a subject unless im willing to put my money behind it.

See weekly chart below of XAO the trend is down........would you have gone short on the way up? why go long on the way down?

Putting your money on a good trading method is the go opinions and thoughts count for nothing IMHO.

Comments here on the XAO are good fun and I enjoy the comments no matter how good or bad.

.

 

[cbacamden]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry if anyone found my posting of trades out of line. I tried to share the good and the bad (trying only to show the relevant trades in the forum)

Anyway - it would appear that this forum is not for me. Thanks to those that shared and put up with my ways.

All the best with trading

Bye Bye

ShaunQ - I must have hif a nerve - he he . I dont see you in the Dec stock picking (I wonder why) - yet another expert

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ok, then I'll make it simple just for you. It's a bear market. The trend is down. Clear enough?

The trend was down in Feb and it was down in May and it was down in Sep and it's down now. Not sideways, not bottom, not ranging but down. Trade the rallies if you like, but keep near the exits.

I would expect 4000 rather than 5000, but that's wave stuff and I don't do waves. I do fundamentals, and they're bad and getting worse.

There are no good signs for the AUD. It will track the CRB for now, and that hasn't recovered. However, the USD has peaked and may fall back so we could get a higher AUD eventually.

If you want a tip, try GOLD.

well if you had said that in the first place I would have not had any issues.

so that's what we call this market. a bear market well I just learned something.

disagree on the aud still see it moving to .70- 79 cents. If it breaks .6060 then I am wrong. support on the chart with a double bottom to higher low. If anything it may settle into a range that tops at 70.

sell is a hedge i am long (Demo)

but that's not xao related sorry folks.

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

well if you had said that in the first place I would have not had any issues.

I've been called a perma-bear since the beginning of the year, but maybe I didn't make it clear enough in this thread. Here it's mostly chartists, but charts only show what the market knows. I think the market has underestimated the severity of the problems, so the bear is bigger and deeper than you can read.

At the same time, it doesn't happen overnight and those old levels mean things, so you get bounces on the way down. Charts might help on that.

Sub-3000 is definitely on the cards, but crazy figures like 1500 are not. I can make a guess at how low the next step goes once we see the next round of company profits.

I'm looking for bottoms in good companies with good yields as interest rates drop, but probably not soon and they definitely won't be banks! eg AGL is still doing just fine.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Folks,

An observation and some thoughts:

Being a relatively new member to ASF, I have seen a growing number of negative threads in this forum that hammer on people's trading analysis, methodology, styles etc.

I looked back at some of the posts in this thread before the decline started on the XAO (over 12 months back) and saw that the posts were generally very polite, funny, useful and enjoyable (there's probably a few there that I didn't see that weren't so nice). But ultimately the level of negativity was low.

The way I'm approaching this bear market (and forum) is: I know the cycle of the market is down as a result of the declining social mood and it will probably get a lot worse. So rather than join in and hammer on people that disagree with me (and there's plenty that do) - I'll just continue to do what I'm doing, if there are people in the forum that gain value out of what I provide then that's a good thing.

In addition, I have learned much from people's discussions here, trading strategy, wins and losses alike. I really don't care if people are traders or not - what I'm looking for is valuable information that could benefit my strategy, others I pass it to, or perhaps additional ideas I can give you to consider. I like to read about the wins and losses, what does and doesn't work and I accept not everyone will agree or disagree with what's posted.

There are a heap of people that visit this forum seeking insights, ideas, innovations that they may successfully use - or want to discuss further with you in a meaningful way, and is ultimately the basis behind this forum. But it is the members that will decide this in their posts.

 

[noirua]

Re: XAO Analysis

:topic A very busy thread is "XAO Analysis" and is frequented by those with stacks of grey matter. However, too busy maybe to vote for ASF in the very important forum vote that concludes in about 3 days time. If you are able to spare a moment to vote this is the link: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

Thanks for your time - noi

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Done:iamwithst

 

[joeyr46]

Re: XAO Analysis

Folks,

An observation and some thoughts:

Being a relatively new member to ASF, I have seen a growing number of negative threads in this forum that hammer on people's trading analysis, methodology, styles etc.

I looked back at some of the posts in this thread before the decline started on the XAO (over 12 months back) and saw that the posts were generally very polite, funny, useful and enjoyable (there's probably a few there that I didn't see that weren't so nice). But ultimately the level of negativity was low.

The way I'm approaching this bear market (and forum) is: I know the cycle of the market is down as a result of the declining social mood and it will probably get a lot worse. So rather than join in and hammer on people that disagree with me (and there's plenty that do) - I'll just continue to do what I'm doing, if there are people in the forum that gain value out of what I provide then that's a good thing.

In addition, I have learned much from people's discussions here, trading strategy, wins and losses alike. I really don't care if people are traders or not - what I'm looking for is valuable information that could benefit my strategy, others I pass it to, or perhaps additional ideas I can give you to consider. I like to read about the wins and losses, what does and doesn't work and I accept not everyone will agree or disagree with what's posted.

There are a heap of people that visit this forum seeking insights, ideas, innovations that they may successfully use - or want to discuss further with you in a meaningful way, and is ultimately the basis behind this forum. But it is the members that will decide this in their posts.

Reading thru the threads I've noticed that there is a tendency to be more aggressive lately and closed minded but everything i've learnt bfrom elliotwave says this is as it should be and it's going to get worse and just bto throw in another prediction if this is a longer term bear market try 450!
Someone said the XAO should bottom around 3400 because it was a different market since the inflation of the 70's and 80s That's exactly why its going down a lot further in the medium to long term to correct the inflation (or governments being dishonest) so we,ve got to recognise what is going on short term with a longer term perspective and try to stay ahead of the game.
Watching social mood should give us the edge on which wave were inand so far for such a small bear market the mood has really swung even the government is panicking. there is no way this is anywhere near other than a short term (up to 8mths ) Bottom

 

[joeyr46]

Re: XAO Analysis

of course thats only an opinion or speculation and we can only trade the short term moves and allow winners to run so have to be ready to change with the trend

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

of course thats only an opinion or speculation and we can only trade the short term moves and allow winners to run so have to be ready to change with the trend

Depends on the market.

I would think, trading from a daily (as most here do, so correct me if I'm wrong, as I don't trade from a daily), you would probably be better off letting a winner win at the moment, as opposed to letting it run.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not posted for a while but nothing has changed from my post in September.Still the same count but further advanced.

Below is my preffered count although there is a less likely (i.m.o) count which has the latest low as being the completion of the wave C down.If that's the case the low is in.

I strongly favour another leg down as time wise it seems to fit better.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not posted for a while but nothing has changed from my post in September.Still the same count but further advanced.

Below is my preffered count although there is a less likely (i.m.o) count which has the latest low as being the completion of the wave C down.If that's the case the low is in.

I strongly favour another leg down as time wise it seems to fit better.

It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.

Especially with some of the gyrations of the XAO lately making absolutely NO SENSE WHATSOEVER from a real world perspective.

I'm getting giddy from watching the roller coaster ride of sucker rallies & crashes. There still seems to be no shortage of guts 'n glory types declaring "this is the bottom - I'm buying big time".

Hmmm. Is there a Gamblers Anon link here? Maybe Joe should consider providing one!