XAO Technical Analysis

[cartel31]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?

 

[sinner]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?

The following is NOT financial advice:

When the cat is away, many mice come out to play.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?

At the casino, I always think that if more than 4 reds or blacks come up, that I should double up in the opposite direction.

DOW's gone up 4 days in a row.

Place your bets...



:

 

[jono_oz]

Re: XAO Analysis

We do seem to be oversold here when you look at the loss from Jan to now.

USA down 32%
Australia down 48%

USA debt as % of GDP 40%
Australia debt as % of GDP 15%

USA Budget Defecit heading to the Trillion mark and total debt at 10 Trillion
Australia ... Media panicing about a possible defecit...

I will be interested to see in 3 years time how much of Australia is still owned by Australians. Once our resources are bought by China, USA and others .. I'm sure the resource boom will return.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

At the casino, I always think that if more than 4 reds or blacks come up, that I should double up in the opposite direction.

Gambler's Fallacy, Kennas.

GP

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Gambler's Fallacy, Kennas.

GP

That was what the link went to.

 

[nick2fish]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?

A tiny ship without a rudder on a stormy sea is what comes to mind...for some reason

In one word directionless , in three Flat, Flat, Flat

sorry for sounding so cynical

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm pretty sure Cameronsystems has some data on this if anybody could be bothered checking.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

That was what the link went to

Oh, LOL. I tend not to follow most links posted in messages, unless it's to an article that's the main point of the message.

But at least we're in agreement.

GP

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

appears not many left in the XAO bottom picking contest these days - just the fib cluster gang and tech-a, then its on to OWG's 1500 if 3200 doesn't hold

Nonsense. The 3200-3400 support is based on historical levels going back to April 2002. If that doesn't hold (and it probably won't) there are strong levels at 2900 and the final frontier at 2700 (April 2003). The market will not give up any of those levels quickly -- some of us have long memories!

My bet is the only way we'll get that low is if a bank fails, and if we're headed on that track is likely to take 12 months or more to get there. Talk of 1500 without a massive change in fundamentals is just hot air.

 

[nick2fish]

Re: XAO Analysis

Whats your thoughts on the price movements for the XAO, XJO tm. The DOW will be closed tm and open only half a day on Friday, but that won;t matter until Monday for us.

Any thoughts guys?

Oh Well Europe markets are doing okay without the luxury of looking over thier shoulders to check on the Dow. Could be another up day 2morrow, which would be a definite bonus being Friday and all. Then all we need is another press conference from Obama on Friday night to push the Dow along for our Monday open. Thats the plan anyway

 

[CamKawa]

Re: XAO Analysis

Alan Kohler said on tonights ABC news that he suspects the bottom may be in for what it's worth.

 

[lioness]

Re: XAO Analysis

Not convinced of an absolute low, but this is how we saw it back on the 21st...

BOTTOM LINE
21/11:
EW Trend: Corrective
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: n/a

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
21/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (3 mins 6 secs)
LAYMANS: "...the ASX could well be on a quick route to 3200..." I was given a dress down for originally suggesting the market could fall to 5200 let alone 3200. I haven't heard back from that guy but here we are, or were, within a few points of 3200. I say 'were' because the market reversed from -135 points down before screaming higher into the close to finish +63. This happened last week in the US and I got it wrong, so let's tread carefully here. The last 12 trading days has seen the market fall a whopping 1123-points or 25.8% toting up the losses to -53% off its major highs just 12-months ago. Easy come, easy go. Where to now? Well, I don't like calling a bottom and it may well not be the absolute bottom, but we may have just witnessed that "...final wash out where people finally capitulate and lose complete hope and faith in stocks..." that I discussed just a week ago. Think about this - anyone that has bought and held a stock since December 2003 is now showing a loss or at breakeven. I appreciate that not every stock has done this but my point is the index being back to those levels and therefore creating a heck of a lot of margin calls for a lot of people which in turn has exacerbated the selling pressure. If this is some kind of significant low point we may see a strong counter trend 'bear market rally' take shape over the coming months, but we remain very wary. New subscribers may wish to review the October 2008 Special Report that discussing the 'Double Dip' phenomenon (refer Resources area). Should a bear market rally gain some traction then I would expect the 4600 - 4900 area as a first port of call.
TECHNICAL: The jury is still out as to whether the decline off the major highs will unfold as a 5-wave or a 3-wave pattern. If this is a significant low then we've completed the required 3-waves. Unfortunately its going to take a move back above 5050 to confirm the 3-wave and invalidate the 5-wave. but if we're going to see a multi-year triangle form as part of the much larger degree wave-[4] then we must look for large 3-wave patterns. Zooming back into this daily chart again we do have a significantly strong close and we also have a sharp Friday 'short squeeze' in the US as supporting evidence. We are playing with fire suggesting a major low could be in play, but sometimes you need to roll the dice and see what falls into place. If this is a wave-5 low then we should now look to a major counter trend rally lasting several months which initially retrace 50.0% to 61.8% of the September - November decline. Note that I am not willing to call a major retracement as yet. We also need to see how prices will push higher from here - assuming of course that they will. We'll dissect that when and if it comes about.

TRADING STRATEGY
21/11:
This dramatic decline over the last 2-weeks really does make me stand up and think that we're seeing serious capitulation or, if I'm wrong, whether the whole market is about to commit Hari kari - Nikkei style. I have tonight issued some buy recommendations within the ASX Power Setups but reiterate that these are aggressive and to tread carefully. There are a number of exact same setups but I have chosen just 4. We don't want to get too carried away against the major weekly trend, but if we're to be proven correct here and can manage the volatility we can capture some nice P&L. However, we're not going to stand around should the major trend resolve itself downward again. We'll take it on the chin and move on.


This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Hi Nick,

As the XJO has obviously turned up, can you now provide an update to your analysis as 21/11/08 is now very old news. Thanks in advance.

You are now expecting a bounce no doubt.

 

[Rockon2]

Re: XAO Analysis

cbacamden.... You expressed concern about the US motor industry.

Ford and GM have had a lift see charts,, Not sure what it means, saviour or die,, but a chart is a chart, simple... and a fair bit of volume to boot


Gday To Nick... Im a happy subscriber.

and A Gday to treefrog.. long time no see

 

[cbacamden]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks - Very interesting.

Somone knows something I dont

They should let em die, but I dont think they will, and maybe this chart supports that.

Thanks for letting us know

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Nick,

As the XJO has obviously turned up, can you now provide an update to your analysis as 21/11/08 is now very old news. Thanks in advance.

You are now expecting a bounce no doubt.

Have to wait till next week for this weeks analysis.

He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.

 

[lioness]

Re: XAO Analysis

Have to wait till next week for this weeks analysis.

He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.

Yes Kennas, you have reminded me nothing in life is for free, except capital losses from the sharemarket!!!!!!!!

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

He's not going to provide the fee paying service to ASF'ers of course.

You can have my forecast for free. I've been right so far, but past performance etc etc.

1. The market WILL revisit this low (3200-ish). We have not departed these levels. Trade if you like, but stay close to the exits.

2. Most likely this is NOT the bottom. There is a lower low ahead, probably Feb, possibly as late as May.

Rationale: the unprecedented damage done to the fabric of the US financial system will lead to a disastrous outcome. Depending on choices yet to be made that could be Japanese-style lockjaw, Zimbabwean hyperinflation or a Russian-style bond default, with the course clear by May at latest. There is no decoupling -- we are in this together.

Charts are irrelevant, because markets have not priced in these events.

 

[Boggo]

Re: XAO Analysis

You can have my forecast for free. I've been right so far, but past performance etc etc.

Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...

11th October

I confess to being very relieved. The waiting was getting on my nerves. I sold out of almost everything Oct-Feb and forecast October as "the big one" with a range of 4000-4500. Now I'm waiting to buy.

15th October

Agreed. Just to put a figure on it, a good first target would be the support at 4000. Then there is the 50% retracement at 3900. After that is the old resistance levels at around 3500. But the big one is the bottom from back in 2003, which was close to 2700. That's close to a 60% retracement.

18th October

That looked like a pretty complicated way to forecast a simple 50% pullback from the peak. The all time high was 6854 intra-day. Half that is 3427. Done.

I'm still kind of expecting either the 3900 or 3500 support levels to hold, but the speed of the drop suggests it will go lower. I can't wait! All those lovely cheap stocks!

6th November

Indeed. I'm still voting for 7K on the DOW, 700 on the S&P and 3500 on the ASX.

and

I doubt it. I'll pick support at 3400 based on the old 2004 support and 2002 resistance levels. Maybe it'll go lower eventually, but not in one go. Some of us have long memories.

7th November

The XAO is now scaled upwards and trended upwards by inflation and can never reach those low levels again. If you adjust the XAO for CPI or GDP you will find the trend bottom is now around 3500 or so.

27th November

Nonsense. The 3200-3400 support is based on historical levels going back to April 2002. If that doesn't hold (and it probably won't) there are strong levels at 2900 and the final frontier at 2700 (April 2003).

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...

LOL

I said we would make 3400 so I was right all along too.

Ha