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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
It's nice to see a sensible count Porper. :)
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I'm surprised I haven't been called Satan yet and had a deluge of abuse cast my way for even suggesting the bottom isn't in ;)

If I was a long termer I would be looking at selected buying on the next dip.Nasdaq has plummeted 54% from the high.

Fundamentally governments around the world seem to be going down the path of creating another bubble with all these bail outs, incentives and throwing money at the problem.This is the last thing they should be doing.Of course this means that the stock market could be pumping again until a few years down the track when everybody realises we are in the *hit again but 10 times worse that the *hit we are in now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
Fundamentally governments around the world seem to be going down the path of creating another bubble with all these bail outs, incentives and throwing money at the problem.This is the last thing they should be doing.
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Spot on Porper. They are doing it because pumping money has seemed to work in the past. This time, I believe the environment has changed significantly enough that confidence and trust has/is deteriorating rapidly and as a result we'll see a rocky ride for some time.

I can only hope that through this process, corruption and system abuse will be weeded out - on a global scale (could be wishful thinking :) )
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hey Oz,

What's your take on the US indices at present? The EW picture seems more clearer to me ATM in the SP500 for instance compared to the XAO which has not followed the recent rally as much just yet.

Personally I think the major wave of selling (I have labelled wave A red) that started 13 months ago is done and a multi month rally is underway. Obviously there needs to be some major base buidling happening here, but I am expecting another wall of worry to be climbed back up to the 50% retrace of the decline in the next 12-18 months.

Would be interested in you views.

Cheers
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
What's your take on the US indices at present?
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Hi WP,

The count looks real good - it's almost the same as the alternate count I have been following.

The juncture we're at right now is significant - if the the markets break above the previous wave 4's and higher then your count will play out. If not, and another low comes into play (probably a couple of months away) then I would see it as completing 5 waves down - and the consequences of 5 waves down on an index is significantly bearish for the longer term. :eek:

The last several weeks have been hard to determine on the S&P500 with overlapping waves, but I think the way you have it is spot on. For my primary count the brown wave 4 of A is still underway (as a possible unfolding triangle), and another low is expected once the triangle completes (down to the 3000 or less on the XAO).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

joeyr46 said:
Someone said the XAO should bottom around 3400 because it was a different market since the inflation of the 70's and 80s That's exactly why its going down a lot further in the medium to long term to correct the inflation (or governments being dishonest) so we,ve got to recognise what is going on short term with a longer term perspective and try to stay ahead of the game.
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That could have been me. I'd been expecting support at around this level (3200-3500) but it probably won't hold. It can go lower, but not all that much without some devastating change in fundamentals. The practical minimum is a market PE of about 8, and you can do your own sums on that.

My other point was that the old trend line is now meaningless because of inflation. If we got hyperinflation (we won't) the All Ords could go to 1 million and still be worth nothing and it would mean nothing.

I don't understand why you would think inflation means the index is going lower. Perhaps you'd like to try to explain that.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Thanks. Missed it myself but wanted to catch it.

Next time, could you get Karen Tso's phone number for me?

Cheers,

Thanks in advance,

Chops.
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Jesus! I haven't heard an Aussie accent for ages, that was a shock.

Funny how the Art Laffers of the world aren't laughing at bearish commentary any more. LOL
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
And when you get that number can you send it to me too.

Cheers!
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You're all too late. I got the kid next door to hack into the ATO and get all details, I'm just about to call now. :D:D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XAO starting to look bullish to me, a lot of charts looking like they want to go up to me atm.

Guessing we may get an Xmas rally after all. If we can get above 3700 this week I can see us having a rally towards the 4300 area maybe as high as 4900-5000 if we can get some strong follow through but not so sure about such a strong rally, but you never know.

Of course in the current climate it could all change overnight:(
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A lot of volume on the Oz Futs last friday night during the US session pointed to a push up today/tonight. The volume tonight on our futs and the Dow is fairly tame in comparison at the moment. If the Dow does 9000 2nite but has no volume follow through the rally could be short lived.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
XAO starting to look bullish to me, a lot of charts looking like they want to go up to me atm.

Guessing we may get an Xmas rally after all. If we can get above 3700 this week I can see us having a rally towards the 4300 area maybe as high as 4900-5000 if we can get some strong follow through but not so sure about such a strong rally, but you never know.

Of course in the current climate it could all change overnight:(
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It's time for the XAO to pooh-pooh all that stoopid gloom 'n doom eco-data and rise towards the heavens.

Prolly keep rising until late Jan-early Feb '09 when the '08 Dec Qtr company horror reports come in.

Good luck and a Merry Xmas to those punters wishing to make hay while the sun shines!

:santa:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What a market!

If the low at 12:42pm @3502 holds today, then I'm anticipating a bigger push higher with more subdivisions pushing past the recent 3670 high.

Breaking below the 3502 mark and heading under 3490 would indicate to me that the XAO is acting correctively with overlapping 3-wave structures, with possibly more downside to come.
 
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