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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
It's time for the XAO to pooh-pooh all that stoopid gloom 'n doom eco-data and rise towards the heavens.

Prolly keep rising until late Jan-early Feb '09 when the '08 Dec Qtr company horror reports come in.
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Yes, we're due a good retracement rally. Around 6800-3200+1600=4200 would be nice. I'm sure I've still got a couple of old things around here I can sell!
:cool:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Update.
Been away a while noticed the Elliot boys got their 3200 after many months.
Some fluke eh!

To NOW
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I get 3673 at that point you have marked on your chart tech/a.

Assuming it jumps that little hurdle then up to 4200 could be a chance ??

My :2twocents

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Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
I get 3673 at that point you have marked on your chart tech/a.

Assuming it jumps that little hurdle then up to 4200 could be a chance ??

My :2twocents

(click to expand)
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I have a slightly different count, but the push up into your coloured area should be similar. Some numbers:

The 1st leg up from the 21st to the 28th is approx 467 points on the XAO. Some possible targets for the second leg up are:
a. 3900 (100% of 1st leg up)
b. 4076 (138% of 1st leg up)
c. 4188 (161% of 1st leg up)
d. 4297 (38.2% retracement of the leg down from the 19 May 08)

In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.

Getting to 4076 (138%) would place the correction at the apex of the previous wave 4 triangle. I'm expecting a 5 wave advance on this second leg, which should make it a little easier to calculate the ending point.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.
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I don't think we had much of a Christmas rally last year either :eek: Dropped about 500 points mid December and never really recovered.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
Haha yeh, Well last 10 years barring 2000 was pretty much bull mkt too.
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lol, yeh, figures can really be taken out of context if your not careful.

Like the, markets always go up in the long-run notion. Period of industrialization, downsizing, streamlining, multi-skilling, mass production, technological advancement, living off debt. Only so much you can prune it back and load it full of explosives!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
In addition, social mood around XMAS is very positive, and every year in the last 10 a Christmas rally has materialized (except at the end of 2000) usually starting mid December or sooner.
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You mean like that great Christmas rally we had last year?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Or how about the Christmas rally of 2002?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

jonojpsg said:
Hmm, except that = 5200 which would be even nicer;)
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Sorry, I got the arithmetic wrong. 50% retrace is more like
(6800+3300)/2 = 5050.

Please note the congestion levels just under 5000, so a retrace to 4900 would be a reasonable target.

If it happens, I'm sure there will be some wave to match it after the event.:)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Or how about the Christmas rally of 2002?
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How was 05, 06, 07? I can't tell really well by my charts but look like they went up. So, 3 out of the 5 years mentioned there's been a rally. Therefore, there must be a very big chance a Christmas rally this year. :) LOL

Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw. Perhaps it is just a fallacy, but the fact the market expects it to happen, probably gives it at least a 50% chance.... ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
How was 05, 06, 07? I can't tell really well by my charts but look like they went up. So, 3 out of the 5 years mentioned there's been a rally. Therefore, there must be a very big chance a Christmas rally this year. :) LOL

Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw. Perhaps it is just a fallacy, but the fact the market expects it to happen, probably gives it at least a 50% chance.... ;)
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Wasn't 07 last year? The XAO finished December higher than it began the month 18 times in the last 24 years, not a bad record, but since when is a sample size of 24 of any significance?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Wasn't 07 last year? The XAO finished December higher than it began the month 18 times in the last 24 years, not a bad record, but since when is a sample size of 24 of any significance?
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Hm, the years on my charts must be wrong.

I thought our sample size of 5 was sufficient. lol
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Holidays usually drive positive social mood and are in turn usually positive for the market.

For example: sampling the gain/loss on the XAO of the previous 10 days before April 25th (ANZAC Day) over the last 11years shows a gain every year (however minor) except in 2000 (which did gain if you take the sample from the 18th April and would be the 2nd highest gain).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

maybe we need to define what we mean by X'mas rally.

that sudden surge just before or into the new year has been known to peter out 3 days into january, or by mid-march (the "ides of march") of to flatten out or to continue on upwards, thanks to bullish market conditions.

but the surge does frequently occur & this year we want to very much take the Obama=hope factor into account. and the carmaker bailout, if it goes through. and the inauguration ... when is that again, january sometime?

currently, the Dow is at a crossroads & hard to predict its direction in the medium term. but that mid-dec/x'mas rally is highly possible. whether a firming POG & a weakening dollar or other realities end up casting doubt & confusion, remains to be seen.

sorry just noticed it's the XAO under discussion. but I'll leave it as it is, on the assumption that we will continue to follow the Dow on its major moves as we've always done. the last few days are something of an aberration, mainly because the Dow has turned uncertain & directionless & left us without a clue.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Actually, there are some stats on this somewhere, probably in Radge's bottom draw
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Yes, stats in the bottom draw but unfortunately not much upstairs where it counts... :eek:

Since 1980:

Buying Dec 1st, Selling Jan 1st
Win% 75%
Avge Win: 1.75%

Interestingly the two largest gains occurred during the early 90's bear market, albeit a mature bear back then. Dec 1992 saw a gain of 7.03% and Dec 1993 a gain of 8.17%.

Buying Dec 1st, Selling Feb 1st
Win% 78.5%
Avge Win: 2.33%

Holding through to Feb increases returns (due to long term upward bias in market) but is also increases volatility of returns. Last year this same period had a 13% decline.

What about buying in December only if November was positive?
Win% 76.5%
Avge Win: 2.18%

And if November was negative?
Win% 71%
Avge Win: 1.07%



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