Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis

Captain G said:
That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!!
Click to expand...
That has nothing to do with it. We had massive falls without the ban, and will have one on our market again today.

The real reason for the fall is the market looking for a default from GM, and Ford. GM needs a bridging loan, and wont be able to get finance. Both of these stocks could be shorted with the ban.

Add to that the CDS auction tonight, and you have a messy set of circumstances.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

one may even have noticed a distinct lack of sucka rallys since the short ban ..:) forgive me if im wrong but dont the shorters have to close there positions at some point too leading to a bit of a buying spree to cover position :)

but hey blame the shorters , blame the guvverment , bugga it lets blame oprah
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Captain G said:
That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!!
Click to expand...

Pretty funny!!

but you only have to look at the HUGE increase in open interest in ALL futures markets that have banned short selling to realize that the ban has actually INCRESED the falls and general downward pressure. Its made targeted falls a problem for ever stock.

Bloody dumb ar$e populist decision that has back fired. IMHO
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Captain G said:
So, the way I see it all charting systems unfortunately go out the window in this type of environment until this part of the equation & the the instability/ volatility shorting generates is stopped.
Click to expand...

I certainly don't agree with this statement.(Going out the window)
All analysis regardless that which you use tells you something is brewing.
That's what this analysis is saying.


All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.
Click to expand...

Another fall today wont alter the count--it will still be the 5,5,5 count.
On the weekly it will simply be an extension of the 3 rd wave.
As has been said before there needs to be capitulation.Last night or tonight may see this in the US.Personally and analytically I think we are close.
The whole world is screaming Armageddon--and it is---but also another analytic tool.

Its not time to throw analysis out the window but to be watchful of what its telling us.
As Ive said before I don't see this being a "V" bottom but a cautious slowing and reversal for a while before the final thrust down.

It will come clear and in hindsight we will clearly see it.
If we are aware we may well understand where we are at during the process.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, it's certainly raining at the moment. The DJI and S&P500 are unwinding aggressively in wave 3 of 3's. As for the XAO, it's working impulsively in 5 waves lower. As previously discussed, there was a chance that the XAO could have been an expanded flat correction on the hourly chart to complete wave II circle, as of the close yesterday an expanded flat was out of the picture.

In any case, as previously discussed, the market action after the completion of wave II circle meant aggressive downside momentum in wave III circle (or to possibly subdivide further - most likely). The financial sector has been holding up in a sideways wave 2 and should now start to break down to push the XAO lower.

Sunder came thru unscathed, and is probably going to be in for awhile? - so some good news for some.

The S&P500 should start to hit a series of wave 4 corrections very shortly...more about the impact to the XAO wave count later...
 

Attachments

  • 09 Oct 08 XAO.jpg
    09 Oct 08 XAO.jpg
    37.9 KB · Views: 4
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.
Click to expand...

Ouch! Because someone crashes a car does that mean all cars don't work?? Elliottwave Wave is a tool, and can be used in different ways - hammering on someone's wave count ain't the right approach here. Your inclusion of "All Appliers" is a little over the top - since you haven't been reading other posts on EW in the forum.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Certainly these levels will be broken to the low side today.
Levels of 3400 are entirely possible bringing this correction then in line with the 50% retracement in 1987.

I'm not expecting this to move down to those levels in one complete move,rather a rally first followed by further falls.
Click to expand...

The daily is certainly showing a powerful move with closes outside of the 55day Bollinger Bands that can't be sustained much longer without a relief rally. The Stochastics are about to bottom out too, so today could be the final day of pain (for a little while).
The weekly shows we have a tad more downside left - I think we need to touch the green Bollinger Band on the weekly before a relief rally ensues: should hit it today.

Note that the weekly Bollingers are not yet indicating that a major bottom is in (though they do lag).

My 2cents... Amazing times indeed.
 

Attachments

  • XAOcombined.jpg
    XAOcombined.jpg
    138.3 KB · Views: 9
Re: XAO Analysis

There seems to be some anticipation of a rally - which makes sense to me. Problem is whether, and what to, buy before then and dipose of when [if] a rally occurs.
Think it's easier for me to just stay away.....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

From this for the last few weeks in my email
Yes - This Is The Bottom
1.05 pm, October 7th 2008

I believe this is the bottom of the trend.

I'm definitely bullish.

I'm convinced that the evidence is pointing to an imminent bounce.

I'm sticking with my forecast that the index will remain above 4200.

In that light, in general terms, this is the bottom.

It's time for long term investors to buy.
Click to expand...

To this
Dow Jones Dives 7.3%
October 10th 2008

Global stock markets staged a mini crash overnight.

The Dow Jones is down a whopping 7.3% this morning.

It's NOT a good sign for the Australian market today.

That said, it's still possible that the index will stay above 4200 on a closing basis.

The Australian dollar is up this morning, as is copper, so it's NOT all bad news.

Perhaps the index will post the low this morning, then rise from there. It's been a repeated scenario lately, and it's possible again.

If that is not the case, IF 4200 fails, 3500 odd might well be the next big target.

That all said, I haven't given up on the index just yet.

In big picture terms, this could be the bottom.

Remember, sentiment is always the most bearish at the very bottom of the trend !!!
Click to expand...
suppose today will tell if it holds or not. I wonder how many will get (have got) caught out
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I still can't get over CBA calling a bottom a couple of weeks ago.
 

Attachments

  • egg-on-face1.jpg
    egg-on-face1.jpg
    31.4 KB · Views: 193
Re: XAO Analysis

I closed my short and opened a small long while it was 5.1% down. It's now 5.3% down.

I'm calling relief rally Monday next week. The G20 consortium meeting in Washington this weekend is not going to go home without doing something decisive. I'm sure they'd rather call a international long weekend, rather than allow the weekend to end without something positive to inject into the market.

Forget fundamental or technical analysis. I'm trying a new technique called "Sentiment analysis". In times of panic, it seems to trump every other style.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

"In early trading, 196 shares were down, and only one share was higher"

lol

which one's that?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Proper deleveraging is finally underway + realization that it DOES and WILL affect China and all of it will affect the AUS consumer pockets.

A lot lower P/Es are acceptable is this conditions. All 'experts' saying some companies are good value don't tell you there will be a flood of downgrades.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I closed my short and opened a small long while it was 5.1% down. It's now 5.3% down.

I'm calling relief rally Monday next week. The G20 consortium meeting in Washington this weekend is not going to go home without doing something decisive....
Click to expand...

Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.

What price a ringside seat??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.

What price a ringside seat??
Click to expand...

Politicians can do whatever they want, the market will go wherever it has decided, regardless.

This should have happened 6 years ago. Cheap money was thrown in the fire and it's happening now and much harder, instead.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The big banks in Australia have been going sidieways up til the last couple of days, and since yesterday they have started breaking support, have a look at a trend line under the sideways move of CBA. CBA on a daily and weekly has been bouncing off that trendline. So we can say that either it is being accumulated or distributed at the sideways movement. If it is accumulation then at best have a one day false break below trend line and turn around, or we go below those trend lines for quite bit.

CBA is our strongest bank supposdly so if it blows a lot lower what do you think will happen with the others.

All the financial commentators/gurus seem to suggest the financial crisis is much worse than 1987 and the worst since 1934, so when we realise that 2 ofour big banks retraced 61% of their all time high after the 87 crash, then we consider something like that has to go close to happenign again. Worst case drop so far by any bank in this whole bear marekt has been 57 odd%. by NAB on a spike low.

For those not aware, yesterday was not only a 1-1 movement down in price but also 1-1 movement down in time. Price and time coming together like that does not hapen real regular and certainly big players in the game would have been aware of it yet they wer not wiling to wade into the market
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:
Could be a good punch-up. Lots of panicked pollies and their trusty treasury sidekicks pushing their own barrows full of plastic casino chips.

What price a ringside seat??
Click to expand...

Two ways to get excitement out of this:

1. Buy a ticket to Washington and fly over

2. Randomly buy some index funds of the Dow, Footsie, Hang Seng, Shanghai, ASX, and load them up on the big screen. It'd kind of be like a 5 way boxing match. Everyone is getting smashed, and it's possible that nobody is a winner at the end.
 
Top