XAO Technical Analysis

[skc]

Re: XAO Analysis

Mate your terms are all mixed up. To close a short you "Buy to Close" the person on the other side can only be "Selling to open" or "Selling to Close".


There aint no buyers on the other side of a closed short transaction.

Dumb question... who's the counterparty to the other side of the contract? i.e. Who's money are you taking?

 

[marcadrian]

Re: XAO Analysis

HSI opens to 8% slide and at about 1pm we follow suit just like TH predicts.
TH does this domino effect (from the Nikkei and HSI) affect our market every day at these times? I'm new to this game and learn something new from your posts every day. Very grateful.

 

[CamKawa]

Re: XAO Analysis

The whole futures board is glowing red at the moment which may be giving XAO a bit of a tail wind. This has got to bounce at some stage - surely!!!????

 

[GreatPig]

Re: XAO Analysis

With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.

Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?

Given that current conditions are supposedly much worse than those three times, I'm not holding my breath.

GP

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Dumb question... who's the counterparty to the other side of the contract? i.e. Who's money are you taking?

Not sure what you mean. Every dollar won is from the person/s on the other side who lost it. Zero Sum game.

HSI opens to 8% slide and at about 1pm we follow suit just like TH predicts.
TH does this domino effect (from the Nikkei and HSI) affect our market every day at these times? I'm new to this game and learn something new from your posts every day. Very grateful.

Yep. also was to busy to post but you have the 2:30 after lunch japan open that normally shakes things. As well as being the tradition margin call time not to sure about that now days with elec margin controls etc.

 

[korrupt_1]

Re: XAO Analysis

With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.

Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?

Given that current conditions are supposedly much worse than those three times, I'm not holding my breath.

GP

great chart... food for thought...

i was hearing that when DJ cracked 9000 it triggered automated computer selling and hence it was over done....

some anal-list are saying that there's little downside pressure at these oversold levels, so it's possible that it may bounce off that red line....

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Still looking lost in the outback are they Whiskers? I'd say you're bottom call at 4881 looks a little more lost.

Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.

Well the XAO was a bottom for awhile at least... and the potential for the markets to stabalise was there... but basically hasn't occured yet as just posted above.

We will rebound faster as soon as the yanks stop jerking world confidence around and just get on with the job that they have to do, but are choking on.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.

Have a little patience Whiskers, good things come to those who wait.

Well the XAO was a bottom for awhile at least... and the potential for the markets to stabalise was there... but basically hasn't occured yet as just posted above.

So basically you were right then? It was a bottom ....but just for a while. Which is the same as every other bottom that isn't THE bottom. Or it should have been the bottom because it had the potential to be the bottom? But it wasn't the bottom, so I guess you were wrong?

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.

Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?

Given that current conditions are supposedly much worse than those three times, I'm not holding my breath.

GP

The Elliottwave count doesn't suggest a bounce as yet, although we're getting close to a series of small but growing bounces (wave 4's), that will correct multiple wave 3's down at different degrees. Looking at the current wave structure, we need to drop another 300 points or so before major bounces may start to occur. Will post something a little later.

However, the price range of the 1987 high to low is a realistic ending to a very large a-b-c correction

Fundamentals, interest rates changes, bank buy outs etc won't change a thing - nobody and can change what's underway. The market works in 5 waves up and 3 waves down. It just so happens we're in a 3 waves down of a very large degree (cycle degree aka bloody big!)

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

We are declining in a subwave 3 of 3 of the larger degree Wave C.

Time wise I have this Thursday/Friday as significant.Also 31st October more so.
At this stage a possible short term bottom.

I have 3600 as a possible wave 3 or C bottom.

Well I think we can say today is significant

The count is still behaving itself beautifully.

I will set exceptionally tight stops on my short positions tonight in the US.Let the market take me out if it wants to.

Time wise we are due a bounce, so stick to the analysis.I am expecting the wave 4 to start now, so will stand aside as it wont be tradeable i.m.o.

As I said earlier, I don't think we well get a strong reversal from any bottom but a sustained sideways movement.

Having said that we aren't at the bottom yet, but getting close.

3500 to 3600 is my target.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quite a crack opening up now... but there's still some positive divergence there... not calling an it abyss, yet.

I still think this latest plunge can turn around pretty quickly and mainstream society just step over it.

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaaha!!!!

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Quite a crack opening up now... but there's still some positive divergence there... not calling an it abyss, yet.

I still think this latest plunge can turn around pretty quickly and mainstream society just step over it.

You can't be serious?

Just how far do we have to drop before you admit there is a problem? Or to remove your bullish bias?

 

[tex.willer]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.

If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Ouch! Because someone crashes a car does that mean all cars don't work?? Elliottwave Wave is a tool, and can be used in different ways - hammering on someone's wave count ain't the right approach here. Your inclusion of "All Appliers" is a little over the top - since you haven't been reading other posts on EW in the forum.

Are you for real??? Toughen up dude.

I've been reading various applications of Elliott Wave for a long enough time...not just here, but like, well every bloody where.

You respond like I just insulted your religion OzWaveGuy, but you and others should learn to take it on the chin.

And on your car analogy, I'm not so worried about the specific drivers of the car, I'm more worried about the impact it has on other drivers. Especially the impressionable ones, of which I imagine there are plenty right now.

 

[IFocus]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.

If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.

Yes tend to agree about the lack of panic, need more volume another day like today will help some what then they may have to start locking the windows above the 1st floor's

.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.

If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.

Guffaw!!

Banks going broke
Insurance companies going broke.
Governments world wide throwing money (That they don't have) at the banking system to attempt to alleviate total breakdown.

Just a periodic re evaluation.

All pretty normal really.

ASX you should really learn some serious wave principal how it works and how wave counts are dynamic.
You are one of these people who have to have a definative yes/no point of reference.
Black or White.
Where wrong is wrong and right is right.

At least people here give an opinion ---- you only have one and thats Elliott Wave analysis is crap.
Fine we get it.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

Re: XAO Analysis

Are you for real??? Toughen up dude.

I've been reading various applications of Elliott Wave for a long enough time...not just here, but like, well every bloody where.

You respond like I just insulted your religion OzWaveGuy, but you and others should learn to take it on the chin.

And on your car analogy, I'm not so worried about the specific drivers of the car, I'm more worried about the impact it has on other drivers. Especially the impressionable ones, of which I imagine there are plenty right now.

Oh, I sincerely apologize, obviously my fault. Mental note to self: Ensure to verbally attack anyone who makes a mistake and hopefully this will make an impression on others to do the same instead of trying to offer assistance. Mental note saved

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yes tend to agree about the lack of panic, need more volume another day like today will help some what then they may have to start locking the windows above the 1st floor's

.

That's a very long bar focus...

Absolutely no signs of buying on the close...

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Guffaw!!

Banks going broke
Insurance companies going broke.
Governments world wide throwing money (That they don't have) at the banking system to attempt to alleviate total breakdown.

Just a periodic re evaluation.

All pretty normal really.

When I showed a non-trading friend a chart of the XAO a week ago he concluded that "the market was having a sale". When I showed him the S&P500 from last night he concluded it was now having a "going out of business sale".

 

[tex.willer]

Re: XAO Analysis

Guffaw!!

Banks going broke
Insurance companies going broke.
Governments world wide throwing money (That they don't have) at the banking system to attempt to alleviate total breakdown.

Just a periodic re evaluation.

All pretty normal really.

"Greed is good" is not that good in real life.

You want a car, get a loan, want a house, get a loan, want a holiday, credit card, want plasma and LCD, credit card, want restaurant, credit card. Oh, want to catch that bull run just because China is developing and I don't want to miss out on it - mortgage my house.

Now it's time to pay for it.

What happened to save and spend. Ask the parents and grandparents.

And it's lack of regulation that allowed the banks to shovel loans out the door. They are 30x leveraged in US. It is not unexpected they are dropping like flies in mortein cloud.