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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
not sure how you see see 4050points up over 4 years and down 3150 in the next year as 'holding up well' mo
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I'm talking short term
NAB CBA WBC ANZ were lower and have been moving sideways since roughly July and are holding above the lows despite the market breaking further to the downside. I am surprised they are holding above their lows. Perhaps people running to the banks for safety? Little do they know

:rolleyes: Um I'm not that blind froggy to miss the last 12 months - 4 years of action. I have been trading the ranges in the current market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

moXJO said:
I'm talking short term
NAB CBA WBC ANZ were lower and have been moving sideways since roughly July and are holding above the lows despite the market breaking further to the downside. I am surprised they are holding above their lows. Perhaps people running to the banks for safety? Little do they know

:rolleyes: Um I'm not that blind froggy to miss the last 12 months - 4 years of action. I have been trading the ranges in the current market.
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fair enough - not always easy to pick timeframe to comment - ? LT, MT, ST?but did briefly wonder if you were referring to recent consolidation and easing of oversold momentum
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It will take something special to calm investors down, however I see the rout of past days as reassuring, something needed to purge the sytem. With so much built up momentum, I can't see a reason why XAO 3500 won't be tested, possibly even 3000.

Now very possible that the market will put in another month of October low point. At some time after that, and with no need to be rushing in, we'll pick up quality holdings at prices to brag about for years. And grind our way back up the wall of worry.

Nobody can tell me that when the dust settles there won't be oversold value everywhere. Just two examples mentioned elsewhere on the board - MCC share price $21 down to $6, and GCL $12 down to $4. In 4 months, give me a break. Even if the earnings are revised downwards, these are coal exporting cash earners, and paying dividends. (I don't currently hold either stock).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I don't see any point in making predictions as...anything can happen. Nevertheless, for the sheer fun of it, some random thoughts based on monthly.

Curved lines are semi-log trends. Last night we hit the purple one. 4000 coincides with the blue trend and may be important psychologically for a breather either sideways or potential rally (rally, not a trend change). Low of 3200-3400 in '09 does not seem off the cards. Who knows? Not me. Trade well.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I think I've got this right, but Short Selling is to be lifted in the US tonight. So, I wonder how shakey things will become again - that's if there's anything left to be shorted!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looking at the FTSE-100, banks and miners are going to skyrocket tomorrow.

Hope nobody is holding open shorts on them.

I think the chinese proverb is wrong. It's FUN to live in interesting times!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ok I'm out of my box.

Im expecting a good retracement from here.
Taking a look at the weekly we have a wave 5 at the end of a wave 3 (Higher timeframe),I expect this to retrace to the consolidation area of 5000 ish.

Note the confluence of short and long term fib also the measured move of both legs of the ABC corrective move.
Some good divergence in both Weekly and Daily

xjonow.gif

Looking at the Daily chart we have an end of 5 of 5 of 5.
All of the above analysis in weekly apply to the daily.

xjonow1.gif

Some good analysis on BHP at the moment havent the time to post up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Certainly these levels will be broken to the low side today.
Levels of 3400 are entirely possible bringing this correction then in line with the 50% retracement in 1987.

I'm not expecting this to move down to those levels in one complete move,rather a rally first followed by further falls.

The depth of the crisis really doesnt seem to be known by any experts let alone the guy on the street.

Truely an amazing thing to watch
 
Re: XAO Analysis

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And I'm still holding my small short. :(

Better than holding a long I guess. Blessing in disguise that I didn't have internet access during trading hours yesterday? I would likely have closed out or switched to long.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Looking at the Daily chart we have an end of 5 of 5 of 5.
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All appliers of Elliott Wave analysis get caught with this one...the 5th of the 5th of the 5th...it's gotta turn around.

Ever told someone they should sell because the count on a stock (according to me myself and I) was at a top??? I know I have. ASX went from 20 to 60 something after that. Fortunately, we're still friends. And besides it turned out he could use the cash in a business venture.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The US market ban on short selling was lifted last night. Don't forget that the Australian ban is set to be lifted in a week or so.

MS+Tradesim from the previous page - those are useful semi-log plots, looks like we'll hit your blue line at round 4,000 today.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
um.........looks like a few of us called a bounce wrong eh..... amazing stuff
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It learns to walk and chew gum at the same time... and then it steps on a land mine.

The market just does not know where the next shot is coming from, nor does it know where the last one was shot from.

It was always going to be hard to have a strong close with the Lehman CDS auction tomorrow.

One thing's for certain, a lot of 'stable' markets are going to hit circuit breakers throughout the day today. Almost worth not going to work to watch this...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'll stick my neck out...not for any other reason than I think I'm actually onto something...lots of large cap stocks hovering precariously on 50% retracements of their all time highs. Found support but after last night on the NYSE it wouldnt suprise me if we see some of them break...next logical support at 61.8% of ATH...expect the XAO to fall to 50% of ATH so, 3400ish.

This is where the S&P500 stopped after the 00-02 bear market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
I'll stick my neck out...not for any other reason than I think I'm actually onto something...lots of large cap stocks hovering precariously on 50% retracements of their all time highs. Found support but after last night on the NYSE it wouldnt suprise me if we see some of them break...next logical support at 61.8% of ATH...expect the XAO to fall to 50% of ATH so, 3400ish.

This is where the S&P500 stopped after the 00-02 bear market.
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Would rather it's over quickly, but no guarantees it will stop there...

On another note, the VIX up another 11% to 64%!!!! Unreal!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That's what happens when you lift the ban on short selling !! I may not be too bright & don't have much to add or say on most things, especially after being burnt for saying what some may consider being dumb or obvious things, but I could see this coming and the effect it would have on the markets. This market will short itself to death if given the opportunity!!

So, the way I see it all charting systems unforunately go out the window in this type of environment until this part of the equation & the the instability/ volatility shorting generates is stopped.

I say this not to offend any posters, especially Tech/a, for whom I have a great deal of respect & enjoy, with his experience, knowledge and work !! :)
 
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