XAO Technical Analysis

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

Dhukka,





What is random???

How can it be that yesterdays market action that affects the actions of many market participants today, be regarded as 'random' in any shape or form??

The factors that affect stock movements are many and varied, but thinking it is random is a mistake.

A coin toss is a separate event from the last toss, the coin does not have a memory, that is random.

The market behaves in ways that can by measured by probabilities according to past events. On any occasion the bet can be wrong. A 50/50 system can be a huge winner if you are prepared to cut the losses immediately while aiming for much larger winners. Failure to understand that, and just pick on the bad calls, means a lack of understanding of the game.

We all make many predictions/bets everyday, with high probabilities on our side. For instance, whenever you drive your car, you are betting that the guy in the car coming the other way, will stay on his side of the road. Most of the time that prediction/bet is successful, but for some it is the wrong bet, that has happened to me.

Your theory of having a coin toss vs market picking direction for the following week is a silly idea, because my choice is up every week. Past history will show you that the indexes have a positive bias over the long term. Your random coin toss will lose.

brty

brty,

When you decide to answer my questions that I've repeatedly asked of you, I might consider answering yours.

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi

Is this what you are referring to, it is old ????

Still you have no answers..

Again, what do you consider to be medium term? And if you don't mind, could you answer the question that I asked twice before but you refused to answer regarding your claim that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by brty View Post
Let's see if there is any argument with the following examples.

Will ANZ bank will make $1.6B less this year than last year?

Likewise for each of the other banks.

That is what the market is currently pricing in.
my question was:

Quote:
Originally Posted by dhukka View Post
I would be interested to see how you arrive at that calculation

The ANZ bank one was simple, the SP had fallen ~40% The $1.6b was ~40% less profit. That was clearly obvious to anyone who knew anything about bank shares. Also any losses early on, that are unexpected, are just about always much less than the final picture, hence the market gets conditioned to feel better about the events.

The medium term?? Anything from a few months to a couple of years.

Now about the questions I asked of you.............that you did not answer...

If you have better data going back to 1900, then plenty of people as well as I would love to see it.
Going back to 1980 is a cinch for absolute highs and lows, but that is not the longer term. We can only compare like with like.

In your opinion is not making any type of comparison at all with history a better alternative??

What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market???

brty

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi
The ANZ bank one was simple, the SP had fallen ~40% The $1.6b was ~40% less profit. That was clearly obvious to anyone who knew anything about bank shares.

Actually it's quite the opposite, to anyone who knows anything about bank shares, your statement is quite ridiculous. Since I used to be a bank analyst I might know a little about the topic. Firstly, you posted that back on March 11th (thanks for getting back to me so soon) ANZ at that time closed at $20.85.

So is it your belief then, that the stock price should at all times perfectly reflect the earnings expectations of the company? Sounds suspiciously like the silly EMH hypothesis. Why does a 40% drop in the share price necessarily mean the market is pricing in 40% lower earnings? Could it be that the market is pricing in future uncertainty, maybe a realization that the bank was overpriced? Some US banks will make full year losses this year and next, should their share prices therefore be $0?

Your belief was obviously that the stock price back in March had too much downside priced into it. So you must think its really underpriced now at $16.61? I assume your going long since the market (according to your rational) is now pricing in a 50% drop in earnings even though the company gave guidance that earnings will be down 20-25%. Must be a no brainer.

Also any losses early on, that are unexpected, are just about always much less than the final picture, hence the market gets conditioned to feel better about the events.

Not sure I can decipher this but if investors have learned anything from the current meltdown in finacial stocks. The first estimates of losses are always the rosiest and the final numbers are much worse. Every quarter we hear that writedons are over but some (such as Citi and Merrill) keep writing down huge amounts even after statements to the contrary just months prior. Anaylsts of US bank stocks have been revising their forecasts consistently down for almost a year now.



As for your other questions, I'll get back to you in about 5 months, sounds about reasonable doesn't it?

 

[brty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Dhukka,

It will probably take you that long to work out an answer, or hope that others have forgotten the questions that you had no answer for.

By the way, here is the other post I made in the line of predictions, that you did not see...

I would be expecting a pullback over the next month or so as many good stocks are looking a little overbought after there 20-30% rises in the last 2 months.

That was made on the 20th May in the Imminent Market correction thread.

You did not like the monthly close numbers, but offered no alternative, Do you think that history is a useful guide for market moves or not???

brty

 

[NZTurtle]

Re: XAO Analysis

Meh, I came on here to read about the XAO, not watch handbags at 30 paces... Can you guys go and start your own thread?
Cheers
T

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think you're a little slow kennas since I've told you before, I don't trade, so why would I post up a trade?

Yes, appologies dhukka. I'm out of line. No one actually needs to be trading to have an opinion of where the XAO is going.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good morning girls!

XAO still conforming to current analysis.
Here is a weekly chart showing the current wave 4 retracement.

All analysis remains the same for me relative to previous posts.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good morning girls!

XAO still conforming to current analysis.
Here is a weekly chart showing the current wave 4 retracement.

All analysis remains the same for me relative to previous posts.

Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?

 

[prana]

Re: XAO Analysis

Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?

Dum question, but I thought EW is 5 up and 3 down ? (not 5 down) So we are at the end of the 3'rd down, starting the 1st up ?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Kennas.

See chart.

Prana.
Corrective moves are 3 waves ABC
Longer corrective moves are 5 waves down A
3 waves up B
and 5 waves down again to complete the pattern C

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

P&F gives a very clear picture of where we are currently.

Double top.
This is a 25 piont box size and a 1 box reversal chart.
Tradeguider doesnt plot the 1 box size reversal charts correctly but will do.

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

im only a beginner at tradeguider but to me from my newbie analysis it looks like the XAO is gonna bounce off and move back down because there wasnt enough effort to get through the top line.... tech/a what do you suggest this chart means?

come to think of it theres increasing volume coming up to the line.... it may go above and then quickly come back down into the range

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

tech

I have trouble tracing out the price path on that P&F

O are up it seems ?
X is down ?

But when you move across to a new column
You seem to have a adjacent Os and Xs

eg the top in July the columns alternate but they are at the same level ?


Possibly the program can not handle a 1 box reversal at all

You could try a 2 box reversal instead
it has a similar trend constant as a one box chart.

try 25 pt and 10 pt .

when the chart moves across
It has to be initially diagonally

that top in July for example looks wrong

There appear to be other inaccuracies as well.

eg top at the end of April...
Try and trace the price path..

The three O and three X have to be wrong


motorway

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

P&F there is Box and reversal

Here is a 5 reversal 25 pt chart....

Big picture with NO LAG or LOOK back

( is is not a daily weekly monthly but then again it is )

Clear Pattern ?

5 box reversal chart Condenses the fluctuations
that produce the trend ( grey line)
Yet it still moves as the mkt moves

LOOK LEFT
What do you see

Also the behavior of the bottoms .

IF there is no trend visible on a 5 rev chart
There probably isn't one

periods of congestion are obvious

This one looks very significant

every change of column is a pure test and response
( intrinsic time ? )

This could be the bottom
The composite man does not wait till it goes down to distribute.
But a move back to the 50% zone would be key..

Looking left it is an obvious zone of support

test response , test response..



You can see a trap move from the bottom of this congestion

motorway

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Kennas.

See chart.

Yes, nice chart.

Thanks.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

M/W yes your right.

I'm looking for the settings in the software so I can alter it.
But agree that it doesnt seem to handle 1 box reversals let alone get the direction of X's and Os correct!---just a setting problem I'm sure.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Here is the 25 x 3 reversal chart...

There is a 45 "Diagonal Forecasting"" line drawn from the top.
And I have let the software place the vertical counts
I have put (I hope ) a logical Horizontal Count...

Note the the pattern ( Not as in technical pattern but the shape of demand and supply ) since clearing the "Diagonal"

Break of a triple top with rising supports

for discussion

The 1 box will break it's diagonal first
the 3 box qualifies and confirms the 1 box
The 5 box condensing the horizontal even more will only break it's diagonal
well after a new trend as emerged..
But can give extreme clarity.


P&F the chart what it can be is often
mistaken for a particular trading system that make use of the P&F chart
A trading method is not a charting method
with P&F it is often misunderstood as such.

How many ways can one use a bar chart ?
Same !

motorway

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Motorway, I'm working on my P&F, I really am, but they just ain't working for me yet.

Sorta like my neighbour and an aunty... they can pick up a bit of wire and bend it and devine for water. The neighbour bought the block beside me because he reckoned there was water there in an area not renouned for underground water. Anyway the other day he drilled two shallow holes and got more than enough for house and garden in both.

But do you think I can get them bludy bits of wire to work for me!

Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.

 

[white_goodman]

Re: XAO Analysis

to my reckoning it hasnt had enough effort to pass through 5200 and will bounce down tomorrow and possibly thursday...

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Motorway, I'm working on my P&F, I really am, but they just ain't working for me yet.

Whiskers

It is the original chart of the market's waves

The waves of just
demand and supply

The waves the Composite Operator generates.

A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned.

Charles Dow

motorway