XAO Technical Analysis

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

I've been having good success with retail type stocks lately - strange in this type of market(?)

Some good trades I've had lately - taken mainly as short term swing/reversal type trades

WOW, FGL - Probably stopped out early on these 2

Current open trades - DJS, JBH & SEK (not really a retail stock but)

Stocks I've had entry signals on but not taken due to not wanting to carry too many in this sector - BBG & HVN - in hindsight I should have taken them but I suppose it's all about managing risk atm. May still get a chance to enter these stocks if another entry signal appears (lower low & strength)

Has anyone else noticed this sector rebounding?

JBH & DJS in particular seem to be trending nicely atm

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very light volume Can.It was a good comeback today but we are just range bound i.m.o.

We are just as likely to get a rally in the US tonight only for us to go down tomorrow.

A pretty dire market to trade, that is what I am finding anyway, although I don't day trade so can't comment on market conditions for that.

I am hoping for the next leg lower to arrive soon, this last low didn't appear convincing and the rise since certainly in no way can be seen as impulsive.Although we could also say that the longer this consolidation goes on the more chance that it is a solid bottom.

So really I don't know

Thanks for that Porper, FWIW i agree with you 100%. I haven't traded the Aussie Market for a month or more, got burned on slippage too many times, thought i'd stick to the US.

In the US there is a little descending Triangle playing out on the ES and last night it almost touched the bottom. I sort of thought maybe a bounce and then hopefully a decline from that. Volume's been light in the US too, as seasonally expected.

Woeful market to trade but excellent for learning how to manage risk in a choppy market. I too am hoping for a slide equal to the last leg. Anything can happen, lots of speculation about it at the moment, what with the conventions going on and all.

I've got some Capital gains queries for you, i 'll PM you when i get a spare moment.

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Very light volume Can.It was a good comeback today but we are just range bound i.m.o.

Not from the Gents that matter. Those nutty SPI traders came out with some very aggressive volume today. And the result was.........As always when the BOYZ come out to play a large range day in the opposite direction the punters expect.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Good to see our permabull has not been discouraged by being wrong so often.

This is a secondary correction in a bear market. The bottom is yet to come. October should be good.

I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :

...and when have I been wrong?

A "secondary correction in a bear market"... BULLoney.

Look here mate... just follow this space and you'll be right.

I like it! The market is plugging away making slow, but steady progress.

Looking pretty well bought today though. I'd say a couple of days off are in order now... back to say about 5020/30ish, before chugging on up to 5200 or so.

US looking like finishing pretty flat. Commodities off a bit. Oil and Gold not a lot changed, but I know which way they will eventually go... so it looks like a flat to slightly backward day for the Aus bouse.

Just as I predicted... hear that, predicted it would.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :

...and when have I been wrong?

A "secondary correction in a bear market"... BULLoney.

Look here mate... just follow this space and you'll be right.



US looking like finishing pretty flat. Commodities off a bit. Oil and Gold not a lot changed, but I know which way they will eventually go... so it looks like a flat to slightly backward day for the Aus bouse.

Just as I predicted... hear that, predicted it would.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

I've got some Capital gains queries for you, i 'll PM you when i get a spare moment.

Cheers,


CanOz

Capital gains queries, what's that again ?

I think I can remember those, is that where the market just doesn't keep chopping around taking your money from you ?

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm not a permabull, davo. I'm just pragmatic. :

...and when have I been wrong?

A "secondary correction in a bear market"... BULLoney.

Look here mate... just follow this space and you'll be right.



US looking like finishing pretty flat. Commodities off a bit. Oil and Gold not a lot changed, but I know which way they will eventually go... so it looks like a flat to slightly backward day for the Aus bouse.

Just as I predicted... hear that, predicted it would.

Talk about delusional. You get a couple of days right and you're nostradamous. Noone has been more consistently wrong than you with respect to your calls on the direction of the markets and the economy for that matter.

 

[skyQuake]

Re: XAO Analysis

XJO failed 40s again. Nothing bullish till that level gets smashed.

EDIT... suddenly i realize that this is an XAO not XJO thread...lol.
all previous posts and targets were JO based

 

[Real1ty]

Re: XAO Analysis

Capital gains queries, what's that again ?

I think I can remember those, is that where the market just doesn't keep chopping around taking your money from you ?

Ahhhh, the good old days:

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_biases

Cognitive biases are instances of evolved mental behaviour. Some are presumably adaptive, for example, because they lead to more effective actions or enable faster decisions. Others presumably result from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms, or from the misapplication of a mechanism that is adaptive under different circumstances.

Thanks for that wayneL.

Talk about delusional. You get a couple of days right and you're nostradamous. Noone has been more consistently wrong than you with respect to your calls on the direction of the markets and the economy for that matter.

Hey dhukka, how many times have you put a precise forecast on the forum for critique? None that I recall... please correct me if I'm wrong.

As for my 'precise' forecasts, you obviously don't get around the forum enough.

Who's dellusional! My post that you refer to has been pretty spot on.

Some that come to mind that I specifically posted;

1. The peak of RAU last year,
2. the EXACT end point of wave B, I think most people call it, of the XAO,
3. The peak of LOD a few weeks ago,
4. the recovery and minor top reversal of MDX the last few days,
5. the top of oil and continuing fall... oil again thread,
6. the peak of gold last year (I think I posted that) and the recent bottom of gold... gold thread,
7. and lets not forget the bottom of the XAO... which is still in tact.
8. oh, and to stay long BHP despite software alerts of possible shorts on a recent thread tech/a started,
9. the top of the AUD, and
10. the bottom of the USD index.

Now lets be clear, there are plenty of others doing or capable of doing what I'm doing and better... but many couldn't be be bothered copping such vitriol from .......... for their trouble, instead of 'professional' or at least curtious critique.

Me, on the other hand... I intend to stand by the battlements to defend to the last standing man, woman and child, the rights, liberty and sanity of anyone that isn't permantly and irreversibly affected by PermaBear syndrome. :

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks for that wayneL.



Hey dhukka, how many times have you put a precise forecast on the forum for critique? None that I recall... please correct me if I'm wrong.

As for my 'precise' forecasts, you obviously don't get around the forum enough.

Who's dellusional! My post that you refer to has been pretty spot on.

Some that come to mind that I specifically posted;

1. The peak of RAU last year,
2. the EXACT end point of wave B, I think most people call it, of the XAO,
3. The peak of LOD a few weeks ago,
4. the recovery and minor top reversal of MDX the last few days,
5. the top of oil and continuing fall... oil again thread,
6. the peak of gold last year (I think I posted that) and the recent bottom of gold... gold thread,
7. and lets not forget the bottom of the XAO... which is still in tact.
8. oh, and to stay long BHP despite software alerts of possible shorts on a recent thread tech/a started.

Now lets be clear, there are plenty of others doing or capable of doing what I'm doing and better... but many couldn't be be bothered copping such vitriol from .......... for their trouble, instead of 'professional' or at least curtious critique.

Me, on the other hand... I intend to stand by the battlements to defend to the last standing man, woman and child, the rights, liberty and sanity of anyone that isn't permantly and irreversibly affected by PermaBear syndrome. :

You're a guru whiskers, just keep telling everyone how good you are.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

You're a guru whiskers, just keep telling everyone how good you are.

LOL, your tongue in cheek I presume.

No actually, I'm normally fairly shy and timid.

I'm just picking up on a lot of tips and information from the forum. As I said there are no doubt plenty of others that are doing a better job, but when bad manners and unprofessionalism creeps in and starts verbalising and slandering people I get my gander up a bit to straighten them out... otherwise there would be no good news here... everything would be construed by the sad permabears to be just a temporary respite from the virtual end of the world.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thanks for that wayneL.



Hey dhukka, how many times have you put a precise forecast on the forum for critique? None that I recall... please correct me if I'm wrong.

As for my 'precise' forecasts, you obviously don't get around the forum enough.

Who's dellusional! My post that you refer to has been pretty spot on.

Some that come to mind that I specifically posted;

1. The peak of RAU last year,
2. the EXACT end point of wave B, I think most people call it, of the XAO,
3. The peak of LOD a few weeks ago,
4. the recovery and minor top reversal of MDX the last few days,
5. the top of oil and continuing fall... oil again thread,
6. the peak of gold last year (I think I posted that) and the recent bottom of gold... gold thread,
7. and lets not forget the bottom of the XAO... which is still in tact.
8. oh, and to stay long BHP despite software alerts of possible shorts on a recent thread tech/a started,
9. the top of the AUD, and
10. the bottom of the USD index.

Now lets be clear, there are plenty of others doing or capable of doing what I'm doing and better... but many couldn't be be bothered copping such vitriol from .......... for their trouble, instead of 'professional' or at least curtious critique.

Me, on the other hand... I intend to stand by the battlements to defend to the last standing man, woman and child, the rights, liberty and sanity of anyone that isn't permantly and irreversibly affected by PermaBear syndrome. :

You've listed 10 times you have claimed to be right. I could easily list 20 when you have been wrong. Do you really want me to dig up every time you've been wrong? You know it will be embarrassing. Anyway it appears you're only kidding yourself as others have indicated.

As for making specific forecasts, I don't often do it for the simple fact that I have very little idea about short term movements of the stockmarket. Since this forum is dominated by traders and technical analysis a lot of people forget, or don't seem to be able to fathom, that short term market movements are of little interest. However I have made a specific call on the XAO bottoming out between 3400 - 3800 and on another thread said ANZ will trade closer to $10 than $15 by the time it's seen the worst.

The only other time I have made predictions about the short term movement of the market is on my blog. Every month I make a prediction about whether the market(XAO) will go up or down the following month. I've been doing it since June last year. In 14 months I got it right 10 times. However I am not silly enough to think it has anything to do with a superior ability to forecast monthly movements.

I can see the point of putting up forecasts for everyone to see and critique if you are willing to admit when you are wrong and learn from your mistakes but unfortunately for you, you don't fit into that category. Kind of reminds me of a little pearl of wisdom I once read:

it is better to remain silent and thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

You've certainly removed all doubt Whiskers.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

LOL, your tongue in cheek I presume.

No actually, I'm normally fairly shy and timid.

I'm just picking up on a lot of tips and information from the forum. As I said there are no doubt plenty of others that are doing a better job, but when bad manners and unprofessionalism creeps in and starts verbalising and slandering people I get my gander up a bit to straighten them out... otherwise there would be no good news here... everything would be construed by the sad permabears to be just a temporary respite from the virtual end of the world.

Once again with the straw man arguments. We hear this continually about anyone who has a bearish outlook on anything whether it be housing or the stockmarket. It is simply a platitude that doesn't hold any water. Many of us have seen bear markets and economic cycles before and know they end and that we eventually come out of them.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

As for making specific forecasts, I don't often do it for the simple fact that I have very little idea about short term movements of the stockmarket.

Fortunately, some of us do.

Since this forum is dominated by traders and technical analysis a lot of people forget, or don't seem to be able to fathom, that short term market movements are of little interest.

Well, how about that. I guess if your an armchair critic and only count your money box every decade or so, it probably wouldn't matter much.

But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.

However I have made a specific call on the XAO bottoming out between 3400 - 3800 and on another thread said ANZ will trade closer to $10 than $15 by the time it's seen the worst.

Yes and those targets are still over the otherside of the back of bourke somewhere and simillarly 'lost' in the outback.

I can see the point of putting up forecasts for everyone to see and critique if you are willing to admit when you are wrong and learn from your mistakes but [cut]

This is what I mean by verballing people... you know, like crooked cops put words in peoples mouths and witnesses to try to make a case out of lousy investigation.

Put up your facts without the name calling and (attempted) verballing and get on with the critique of the data and forecasts.

What was another one of your unprovoked and unsolicited lines that you used on another thread... something like, "Do ya punk".

C'mon dhukka, how about starting to act a bit professional in your language at least, if not your expertise.

The day I start resorting to such pathetic name calling, someone come and shoot me.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

C'mon gents. I agree it's fun to lock horns and let out some hot air, and besides consensus and mutual agreement would be boreish. However please let's keep it at an intellectual level.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Fortunately, some of us do.

Yes some do, although you can't include yourself in that category because your track record clearly shows you can't.

Well, how about that. I guess if your an armchair critic and only count your money box every decade or so, it probably wouldn't matter much.

But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.

You've missed the point here Whiskers, FOR ME it's not important, I fully understand that for people who trade the markets it is important.

Yes and those targets are still over the otherside of the back of bourke somewhere and simillarly 'lost' in the outback.

Well time will tell and unlike yourself I'll freely admit to getting it wrong.

This is what I mean by verballing people... you know, like crooked cops put words in peoples mouths and witnesses to try to make a case out of lousy investigation.

Put up your facts without the name calling and (attempted) verballing and get on with the critique of the data and forecasts.

As posted here previously, there are 5 examples of your wrong calls that took about 20 minutes to find on just one thread. Do you want more?

What was another one of your unprovoked and unsolicited lines that you used on another thread... something like, "Do ya punk".

Dear oh dear you need to get out more. This is a line from a Dirty Harry movie that I suspected was well known, maybe not? I was asking whether you want to bet 10 cartons of beer instead of one.

C'mon dhukka, how about starting to act a bit professional in your language at least, if not your expertise.

see above, there was no name calling.

The day I start resorting to such pathetic name calling, someone come and shoot me.

If that day comes, let me know if you need a hand.

 

[davo8]

Re: XAO Analysis

But for those of us that trade, the short term swings are VERY important.(

Of course, and if you're making short term forecasts you should say so, clearly. That's not the way your posts read, IMHO.

My recollection is that you have consistently called a bottom and recovery on at least 3 occasions, at various points between 5500-6000 and you've been wrong every time and you're still wrong.

My interest is a time frame of weeks to months to years. Bear markets provide massive opportunities for long investors when they finally do bottom, but only when the false bottom-callers have finally been flushed out and gone home. That time is at least months away, and perhaps up to a year. For an example, look at Oct 1992 or Mar 2003, with gains of 50% inside a year, spread across all sectors.

Your charts and waves are no use when the events unfolding are not priced into the market. Your short term bottoms are just secondary corrections and traps as the world slides into recession. Call them as you see them, but repeated after me: this is not THE bottom.

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

, but repeated after me: this is not THE bottom.

I doesn't matter what form of T/A or F/A you use, nobody that I know of has predicted this latest bear market accurately, that includes the experts.

You will always get people spouting they called it, let's face it we can only go up, down or sideways so some people will call it correctly some of the time.Nobody all of the time.

Bottom line is none of us know if this is a bottom or not, we only make educated guesses.

If anybody can prove otherwise please divuldge.

Strict risk/money management is essential to survive in this market i.m.o. a lot of newbies and others wont make it.

It is clear now why the saying "95% give money to the 5%" is probably true.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

I doesn't matter what form of T/A or F/A you use, nobody that I know of has predicted this latest bear market accurately, that includes the experts.


Bottom line is none of us know if this is a bottom or not, we only make educated guesses.

I think thats the point, porper.

We can feel confident enough that we are attuned to the right chords that are moving the market to commit to something or not. In this caper the proof comes later.

I think the term is judgement. It's a personality thing to a large extent. There have been some good threads about personality types and how they tend to behave and trade. I know my style well and work with that. Part of my traits is being up the front, sometimes too far ahead of the paradigm shift.

Others like to take less risks and hang around further back in the paragigm shift, ie wait to see the proof before they move.

Some hang around or even fall behind the paradigm shift. They would be the ones that tend to buy at the top and sell at the bottom when emotions and sentiment are at their peak.

From my technical indicators, I'm thinking the XAO will probably come back a tad tomorrow again and maybe monday before completing minor wave 1 up.

I'm thinking a bit of fridayitis and also oil is due to make a new low anytime, probably not a big move lower, but lower none the less. This will cause BHP to retreat a bit because of it's weight in the index and regardless of oil BHP looks set for a minor correction anyway.