XAO Technical Analysis

[juw177]

Re: XAO Analysis

Holy crap, 140 point swing in the SPI from open to close.

In the last few weeks, the SPI has held up well when the Dow tanked. You could have consistently made money by shorting the SPI on XAO close and covering it when the Dow opens. But people have caught on to this so now a drop in the dow no longer causes a drop in the SPI.

And you know what happens when people catch onto a trend, it will do something unpredictable like it did today.

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

So JZ just to be clear that was because of the DOW?? Or the soon to open HSI or was it that the little old ASX went its own way today?

Just a little tip for you, that was beacause of DOW. If DOW was going up by 100pts, you will not see ASX going down today.

 

[professor_frink]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just a little tip for you, that was beacause of DOW. If DOW was going up by 100pts, you will not see ASX going down today.

Sorry mate but you are full of ****

The original post from yesterday-

Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.

Unfortunately the only thing we did at today's open was rally. Probably not a good idea to try and gloat when what you originally said was wrong.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Boy Oh Boy. The Financials today joined the Consumer Disc, Consumer Stables, Healthcare, MidCaps, Industrials & Property by taking outs its March lows . That bit of buying pressure from last week has evaporated this week.

 

[juw177]

Re: XAO Analysis

Futures and sentiment in the US point to a frightening day on the DOW tonight... and we will probably follow suit in the morning.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yowza!!

I wonder what an XAO in the 4000's will do to sentiment?

As a side issue, I want to go back to Geraldton & Perth for a couple of weeks and claim my guru status.... (I told them so)

:batman:

 

[explod]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yowza!!

I wonder what an XAO in the 4000's will do to sentiment?

As a side issue, I want to go back to Geraldton & Perth for a couple of weeks and claim my guru status.... (I told them so)

:batman:

Sentiment will be a bit bent. But on looking at the Dow I see 3 support points that could well break with the news coming to light which would put it also at 4000. Just have a good look at the 10 year Dow Chart and tell me that this idea is not on the cards, and will the cat get among the pidgions then, no he.s been sipping my left overs, ambivelent and willing to be a sucker all the way.

 

[MichaelD]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we are bottoming.

I've never seen such an avalanche of negative news and sentiment in the media. It seems an absolute certainty that the world is about to implode if you believe them and you have any sense now is the time to short the market. Going long right now seems like the stupidest idea in the world.

Therefore, it must be right.

Go LONG!

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we are bottoming.

I've never seen such an avalanche of negative news and sentiment in the media. It seems an absolute certainty that the world is about to implode if you believe them and you have any sense now is the time to short the market. Going long right now seems like the stupidest idea in the world.

Therefore, it must be right.

Go LONG!

Might need a capitulation low first.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might need a capitulation low first.

Commsuc & Etrade must be due for a meltdown again. 2morrow??

 

[Kelpie]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might need a capitulation low first.

wayne, could you please describe for a layman like me, what you actually mean by 'capitulation'? many thanks.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's the final give up of the weak hands, a shake out. When the worried and leveraged give up hope and puke out their holdings into a large fall on big volume. When the pain of holding into a falling market finally kills all hope. like on 16th Aug 07, 22 Jan 08. Normally get a big drop on the open then a huge rally the same day as there is no more selling left.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

wayne, could you please describe for a layman like me, what you actually mean by 'capitulation'? many thanks.

What he said ^^

 

[Kelpie]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's the final give up of the weak hands, a shake out. When the worried and leveraged give up hope and puke out their holdings into a large fall on big volume. When the pain of holding into a falling market finally kills all hope. like on 16th Aug 07, 22 Jan 08. Normally get a big drop on the open then a huge rally the same day as there is no more selling left.

Thanks Mr Hand - that explanation was just what I needed!

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might need a capitulation low first.

A final capitulation is what has been missing in the last month. If you take out January of this year when the XAO fell -11.3%, the XAO just had it's worst single month decline (-7.6%) in almost 10 years. In August 1998 the XAO fell (-8.3%). However the decline has been very orderly. No real panic, the VIX has not broken out above 24. I'd feel much better about another bear market rally if we had a good old capitualtion day.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might need a capitulation low first.

Double bottom at 5,200 maybe?

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

So, we need another capitulation? Having had a couple already isn't enough? Maybe not.

I note the US media has been calling the requirement for a last shakeout recently. Like being at 2 year lows isn't enough for them either.

Do we really need another capitulation, or is the worst June since 1940 or something good enough?

Yes yes, the bears (financial realists who know best) will tell us there's a long long way to go, the world is about to explode, Stalone is making another Rocky, and Barry Manalow is making a come back.

Long term chart looks like we've had a nice capitulation, thank you very much.

But what the heck, lets have a few more, I need somewhere to park some cash.

Nice support at 3500, once those speed bumps at 5000, 4500, 4000 ish are smashed.

(sorry, not a semi log)

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: XAO Analysis

Nice support at 3500, once those speed bumps at 5000, 4500, 4000 ish are smashed.

Yep, I agree 3500 looks like the time to start seriously looking at jumping in back in...

I reckon houses are going to loose up to 2/3rd's of their value and we are going to see a big drop in M1 and M3 with so much debt being wiped out, because our money is based on debt...

 

[MichaelD]

Re: XAO Analysis

Might need a capitulation low first.

Can't help but feel the US open at the moment is exactly that. Interesting times.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Can't help but feel the US open at the moment is exactly that. Interesting times.

I wouldn't call it a capitulation low, but buyers certainly jumped all over it. At least some sort of rally looks like it's on the cards.

Interesting, certainly in view of POO & POG.