Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Sheesh! I drop missus off for an appointment in town (bad idea at peak hour in Cheltenham :eek:) and the market turns to crap by the time I get back!
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(Reminds self of why bottom picking is such a bad idea.)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

XAO is 5085 -126.6 (-2.5%). I didn't think it would fall that much at the open. Bring it on! :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Signs of capitulation?
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I have to add that the shorts are just SO strong on the SPI. They will probably lose today but really they have this market by the short n curlys.

They just mark the market down at will. Quite an amazing thing to see when they get going, if your not long that is!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
I have to add that the shorts are just SO strong on the SPI. They will probably lose today but really they have this market by the short n curlys.

They just mark the market down at will. Quite an amazing thing to see when they get going, if your not long that is!!
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Saw the SPY last night and figured the XAO was due to do something significant today...woke up this morning and it looked like we were headed for a 3% decline...instead, we ended up just of 2% down. Still, it looks technically damaging to me.

Re the SPY: respect the outside bar.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm no chartist, but thougth I might as well ask it. When Greenspan and Bernanke left rates at 1% until 2003, the SPI grossly deviated from the long term support line creating the mother of all asset growths. That's a no brainer, everyone knows that. If the XJO fails to hold support at 5000 (or 4980 thereabouts set back in 06) then the next serious support is quite far down (around 3500-4000)

Now my question, Australia as I know it (and correct me if I am wrong here) consists mainly of 2 massive industries, Commodities (metals and energy) & Financials. Now the financials have retreated to levels close to early 05's (its unfortunate that the XFJ doesnt go quite back far enough). WBC itself, for example, is quite close to the support line extended from 03, the same goes with ANZ (looks slightly below) and CBA (slightly above).

So, let me see, if the financials index has retraced that far back, if the XJO is to retrace back to support lines set by long term charts, then, either the financials have to suffer further (very very) serious losses , or the miners are going to get into serious retracement - ie the BHP, RIO, WPLs. Any chartists want to comment on this?

I've been hedging inflation with oil and just wanted to hear some opinions/comments from others. (XMJ XEJ still looking strong as ever but could change easily on a futures crash (comments??)) Interesting times ahead...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Probably the best news we'll have is coming tomorrow, when the US markets close for the 4th July public holiday and close early tonight!

How ironic to see that the markets react today by boosting the banks and punishing the miners for once, maybe the miners aren't as invisible as everyone seems to think anymore. Shorting time? The big boys have a long way to fall if the financials are anything to go by.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
How ironic to see that the markets react today by boosting the banks and punishing the miners for once.
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No not at. Thats just the normal cycle of the market. As predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow.

:eek: Its still coming up tomorrow isn't.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
No not at. Thats just the normal cycle of the market. As predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow.

:eek: Its still coming up tomorrow isn't.
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Normal cycle? What's normal in this market exactly? lol

BTW, I meant invincible not invisible :rolleyes: damn late nights
 
Re: XAO Analysis

GO THE USD !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Please give us a 1-2 week rally - perfect timing with the USA holiday.:D
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Breaking 5200/50 ish support was important I think.

Lower support of the churning in early to mid 06 is a real possibility. 4800 ish.

Although, that H&S looks ugly.

:eek:
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like markets setting up for some fireworks this evening with US futures and overseas bourses down sharply as I type. Bernanke speaking this evening so would not be surprised to see similar if not greater volatility compared to last night. Not to mention jobless claims and consumer sentiment numbers due out later in the week.


Target for this leg of the leg of the bear campaign is approx 4680 pts. Whether we capitulate down to that low now or rally first and then move down toward that number is anyones guess.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think we are more severely impacted by the oil price this time than the sub prime credit crunch. This time the ball is firmly in the US hands and I reckon they will be compelled to take more extraudinary steps before our market can turn around.

Extract from the Immement and severe market correction post:

World production @ 90m bpd x $140 = a $12.6trillion industry.

With a 70% speculator factor and 100:1 leverage, that's a $12.6t industry controlled by an investment of $88billion.

That's an industry about the size of the US GDP controlled by speculative interests.

On the current economic facts with oil at current levels capitulation of many economies seems inevitable... unless the US acts quickly... which I suspect they will.
 
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