XAO Technical Analysis

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well since the announcement, oil has gone down by a whopping.... errrr... umm... it's gone up.

August crude @ > $141 now.

Credit crunch fizzled out????? Oh my!!! Have a closer look Whiskers, it has just transmogrified in a credit crisis.

There are certainly some "if's" and but's" about this bill.




And is $139.64 now.

Gees, it's hard to be the bearer of good news around here. :

But hang on, I said "pretty well" fhizzled out... and anyway the senate and bloomin ole oil man Bush might not sign off on it yet.

Those big bad ole speculators might know more than us little pip squeaks.

Augh... I think I'll have to call it a night while I figure out the meaning of this one over another schnaps or two... transmogrified... hmm.

 

[wayneL]

Re: XAO Analysis

Augh... I think I'll have to call it a night while I figure out the meaning of this one over another schnaps or two... transmogrified... hmm.

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1) - Cite This Source - Share This
trans·mog·ri·fy Audio Help /trænsˈmɒgrəˌfaɪ, trænz-/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[trans-mog-ruh-fahy, tranz-] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–verb (used with object), -fied, -fy·ing.
to change in appearance or form, esp. strangely or grotesquely; transform.

 

[rederob]

Re: XAO Analysis

It does.

4000 anyone?

Errrrr, ummmmmmm ..... yes.
Tim's earlier chart shows that there have been significant corrections, bringing back the allords to a nice support point before resuming the business as usual channel.
What's different this time?
It's the changing of the guard.
It's the baton pass from West to East.
It's going to be interesting as there are divergent driving forces.
The West is debt laden and trying to maintain strong currencies.
The East is cashed up and in no hurry to appreciate their currencies.
The West is buying into Asia to maintain profits.
The East is buying into corporations to secure raw materials and increase its access to international markets.
I think we are looking at a few years for these themes to work through.
In the interim, global markets will do it tough.
The US will be most deeply affected by a quadruple whammy: Massive debt; weakening purchasing power; over dependence on oil; and loss of markets.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: XAO Analysis

Errrrr, ummmmmmm ..... yes.
Tim's earlier chart shows that there have been significant corrections, bringing back the allords to a nice support point before resuming the business as usual channel.
What's different this time?

If you read my earlier posts, you will see the big grin is because I want it to happen (being loaded with shorts) and as stated, I agree it could.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

The suspense of weekends like this kills me...I want to fast forward to next Friday and find out whether the US market closes below those significant lows and whether the XAO reaches 5200 already.

 

[Whiskers]

Re: XAO Analysis

The suspense of weekends like this kills me...I want to fast forward to next Friday and find out whether the US market closes below those significant lows and whether the XAO reaches 5200 already.

Yeah me too. I'm itching overwhelmingly to get into a couple of positions before Bush signs off on the oil speculator bill.

I think rederob has summed up the bigger dynamic pretty well. But I have this feeling that something out of the ordinary is going to happen with this new US oil legislation which will change things substantially... not unlike the FED deciding to lend direct to large corporations.

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

Dow Jones went down 350pts on last thursday night, another 100 points on friday night, and AUS SPI 200 futures hardly moved after all.

Does that mean we expect share market to drop heavily on Monday, or the market itself has found its bottom? Bargin hunters will buy just because everything is so cheap from a long term perpective?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Dow Jones went down 350pts on last thursday night, another 100 points on friday night, and AUS SPI 200 futures hardly moved after all.

Does that mean we expect share market to drop heavily on Monday, or the market itself has found its bottom? Bargin hunters will buy just because everything is so cheap from a long term perpective?

I've said it once or twice before(maybe 1000 times). You cannot take US results and think the ASX will follow them. you especially cannot take a 30 stock index and apply their daily ticks to our market. If you have a look at a proper index the US did nothing Friday.

And if you decided to to anything more than the lazy "the Dow did this then the ASX will do that" you would of seen that what dragged the DOW down was stocks that have little to do with the XAO. Also the materials/energy plays ended up 1-4% in the US.

Rant Rant.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

On Friday I had 5 long positions.
All shorter term and all increased in price.
2 I closed and 3 remain open.

Even in periods of volatility there will be stocks which continue to rise as if in defiance of the general index.
If trading longer term the challenge of course is to find these gems and have the
ability to milk as much as you can from them.

 

[DB008]

Re: XAO Analysis

BUT...
At opening, the XAO did drop over 100 points on Friday. So, we do take a lead from the US Index IMO. If the DOW sheds more than 2.5% in my view we will most liekly (70%) also be heading on a slide.
We did recover during the day, but still finished down.
As they said in the Incredible Charts Newsletter that l want to point out, the DOW has lost 1000 points in the last 3 weeks. Is that a sign or what?

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

I've said it once or twice before(maybe 1000 times). You cannot take US results and think the ASX will follow them. you especially cannot take a 30 stock index and apply their daily ticks to our market. If you have a look at a proper index the US did nothing Friday.

And if you decided to to anything more than the lazy "the Dow did this then the ASX will do that" you would of seen that what dragged the DOW down was stocks that have little to do with the XAO. Also the materials/energy plays ended up 1-4% in the US.

Rant Rant.

I agree with what you saying. But it is just too many times that SPI200 fell just about exact of 50% what Dow Jones was doing. For a recent example, Thursday night, DOW fell 350 pts, SPI 200 fell as low as 170 pts on Friday Morning, before it recovered throughout the day. There certainly is a some sort of colleration between the two.

Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

As they said in the Incredible Charts Newsletter that l want to point out, the DOW has lost 1000 points in the last 3 weeks. Is that a sign or what?

This is where I think this type of analysis is wrong, The DOW did this we will follow type comments. (yes she is all linked in the end BUT)
We ended up every day this week from the open(see my spi charts above) in spite of persistent downward momentum in the US.
Friday we were close to 1:1 advancers to decliners with the US dow 3.5% that night!!!!.
We lost only 1% for the week which was pretty much the Monday morn drop.
The true US indexes have not taken out their last lows unlike the dodgy DOW.

If you are thinking we are 1:1 with the DOW what hope have you got of ever looking and finding divergence????????????????????
US moves certainly on a intraday basis should be faded not followed.

Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour.

Actually we started to rise before the ASX was fully open so it was pretty much baked in in the first tick of each stock on Friday. Then we went our own way.

I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.

Lov it. lets see hey.

 

[nizar]

Re: XAO Analysis

Friday we were close to 1:1 advancers to decliners with the US dow 3.5% that night!!!!.

Hi TH.

I agree with the rest of your arguments in this post (and generally) but what does advances:decliners have to do with percent movement?

I think the weighting of the components is an important factor to consider as we could well have 1:1 advancers/decliners and still fall 3.5%.

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

In general...I think the ASX market will rise over the next week, but start dipping in the new phase of downward trend...starts Thursday night, US unemployment figure.....

I can't see how the stock market is going up in the short term, provided that inflation is up, interest rate (possibly one more) up, unemployment up, retails sales down....i just could not think of any positive economic news at the moment....

What do you guys think?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

what does advances:decliners have to do with percent movement?

Not much. But not many people trade an index so index percentages are not much value.

I think the weighting of the components is an important factor to consider as we could well have 1:1 advancers/decliners and still fall 3.5%.

But my point was just because a funnily grouped basket of 30 stocks in the US fell doesn't mean that you should throw your hands up, dump your stocks on the open and turn mega Bear. The Adv/Dec ratio showed that there was a large degree of stocks showing bullish divergence against the DOW. That half of the ASX doesn't give a toss, at the moment, what the 'Muppet Index' does.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I agree with what you saying. But it is just too many times that SPI200 fell just about exact of 50% what Dow Jones was doing. For a recent example, Thursday night, DOW fell 350 pts, SPI 200 fell as low as 170 pts on Friday Morning, before it recovered throughout the day. There certainly is a some sort of colleration between the two.

Fair enough that you can not compare US companies with XJO, but it will cetainly dictate where the aussie market will go and size of the movement for the first half hour. I predict when the aussie market opens on Monday, SPI 200 future index will fall between 40-50pts.....to reflect the fall in DJ.

No chocolates on that call!! Well the points movement was right just the direction wrong.
Interestingly the rest of Asia has also given a big yawn to the DOW 1% fall

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

No chocolates on that call!! Well the points movement was right just the direction wrong.
Interestingly the rest of Asia has also given a big yawn to the DOW 1% fall

It seems that the market will be closed down by 30-40 pts.....there is no support for the market ......I suspect when the Hang Seng reopens, you will see the negativities ----.....

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

It seems that the market will be closed down by 30-40 pts.....there is no support for the market ......I suspect when the Hang Seng reopens, you will see the negativities ----.....

LOL
The HSI reopens @ 4:30.

So first we were going to drop "40-50" on the open because of the Muppet index. we did the opposite!!

Now there is no support and we are going to drop when?? after we close

Keep them coming JZ. V.funny

 

[JZ009]

Re: XAO Analysis

LOL
The HSI reopens @ 4:30.

So first we were going to drop "40-50" on the open because of the Muppet index. we did the opposite!!

Now there is no support and we are going to drop when?? after we close

Keep them coming JZ. V.funny

If you have been checking the market, surely I don't need to tell you when
SPI 5223.00 -39.00.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

So JZ just to be clear that was because of the DOW?? Or the soon to open HSI or was it that the little old ASX went its own way today?