XAO Technical Analysis
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
Generally wave a = wave c. This is only a guideline. It happens more often than not. It is not a rule. True the obvious scenario is that wave a =c and that could well happen. In fact if using EW in isolation that is the preferred scenario i would use. But at present in the context of the Cycles Analysis it is a lower probability IMO. Time will tell.....
Hi Wavepicker
why you would call such a short wace 'c' relative to 'a'.
In other words, what's the significance of such a long wave 'a' compared to 'c'?
Excuse me for scrawling over your chart.
Generally wave a = wave c. This is only a guideline. It happens more often than not. It is not a rule. True the obvious scenario is that wave a =c and that could well happen. In fact if using EW in isolation that is the preferred scenario i would use. But at present in the context of the Cycles Analysis it is a lower probability IMO. Time will tell.....
Re: XAO Analysis
I hope it's a bottom, but its a fairly gradual bottom, which makes me nervous.
All the right elements seem to have happened.
Lots of volume, large block trades scattered around, put call ratios doing what they should do at bottoms. etc.
Some capitulation, good volatility in asia, options week came and went, lots of bad news. XLF has turned up.
Problem is that every time it rallies, theres no real follow through that Ive seen so far. So many bears out there with itchy sell buttons, jumping on any weak retracement.
Plus a whole new pile of resistance from new people looking to break even.
I guess people are looking for a sensational piece of good news, but no-one can imagine where thats coming from. Fed wont help.
I hope it goes up for a while, but one more episode of really ****ty capitulation wouldn't surprise me either.
I hope it's a bottom, but its a fairly gradual bottom, which makes me nervous.
All the right elements seem to have happened.
Lots of volume, large block trades scattered around, put call ratios doing what they should do at bottoms. etc.
Some capitulation, good volatility in asia, options week came and went, lots of bad news. XLF has turned up.
Problem is that every time it rallies, theres no real follow through that Ive seen so far. So many bears out there with itchy sell buttons, jumping on any weak retracement.
Plus a whole new pile of resistance from new people looking to break even.
I guess people are looking for a sensational piece of good news, but no-one can imagine where thats coming from. Fed wont help.
I hope it goes up for a while, but one more episode of really ****ty capitulation wouldn't surprise me either.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well thought out Broadway, and interesting optimistic view on the future.
I love this insight, and thankyou for it.
Myself.... I can't see anything but a suckers rally, not enough water under the bridge just yet, although I must admit getting itchy fingers of late, but what stock represents a bargain in these times?
Looks a bear market to me.
PS: Thanks for revitalizing this thread!
Well thought out Broadway, and interesting optimistic view on the future.
I love this insight, and thankyou for it.
Myself.... I can't see anything but a suckers rally, not enough water under the bridge just yet, although I must admit getting itchy fingers of late, but what stock represents a bargain in these times?
Looks a bear market to me.
PS: Thanks for revitalizing this thread!
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Re: XAO Analysis
It’s come to crunch time for the XAO over the next couple of days IMO.
As the graph shows we have currently hit a major trendline which starts at the beginning of the Bull campaign back in 03, and finishes on the 38.2 retracement levels.
Agree WP, that we will be heading more south in the near term, but I feel if it does not see green on Monday or Tuesdays and trendline collapses , that downdraft will be a lot sooner than later.
Watching with caution.
SGB
It’s come to crunch time for the XAO over the next couple of days IMO.
As the graph shows we have currently hit a major trendline which starts at the beginning of the Bull campaign back in 03, and finishes on the 38.2 retracement levels.
Agree WP, that we will be heading more south in the near term, but I feel if it does not see green on Monday or Tuesdays and trendline collapses , that downdraft will be a lot sooner than later.
Watching with caution.
SGB
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Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Wondering if that trend line is really there. That is it looks like the 03 trend has already been broken. well and truly back in JAN
Wondering if that trend line is really there. That is it looks like the 03 trend has already been broken. well and truly back in JAN
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Re: XAO Analysis
I agree, that trend line shouldn't be there. The long term one has already been decisively broken back a while ago.
Wondering if that trend line is really there. That is it looks like the 03 trend has already been broken. well and truly back in JAN
I agree, that trend line shouldn't be there. The long term one has already been decisively broken back a while ago.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Not a major, but still an area of support nonetheless.
I would hope to see a capitulaiton should it (or the actual pivot low) be breeched. The sooner the better.
Angry at myself, have been adding longs to hedge all my shorts, but they keep getting stopped out! Now back to 9 shorts and 3 longs!
Not a major, but still an area of support nonetheless.
I would hope to see a capitulaiton should it (or the actual pivot low) be breeched. The sooner the better.
Angry at myself, have been adding longs to hedge all my shorts, but they keep getting stopped out! Now back to 9 shorts and 3 longs!
Trembling Hand
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Re: XAO Analysis
Interesting game all this week. We have gaped down heavily overnight from crappy OS leads BUT the Big Boyz have tried hard to fix things. We have actually risen every day this week!! From the open that is. The two charts below show what I mean. The left one is the overnight SPI movement, while the right is the movement during day hours. Very unusual pattern, red nights green days, topped off today with a great effort on big volume. If this isn't a healthy effort from the Boyz showing a bit of a change from risk adverse to risk taking god knows what will hold this dog up.
Interesting game all this week. We have gaped down heavily overnight from crappy OS leads BUT the Big Boyz have tried hard to fix things. We have actually risen every day this week!! From the open that is. The two charts below show what I mean. The left one is the overnight SPI movement, while the right is the movement during day hours. Very unusual pattern, red nights green days, topped off today with a great effort on big volume. If this isn't a healthy effort from the Boyz showing a bit of a change from risk adverse to risk taking god knows what will hold this dog up.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Yeh, that is very strange.
I would think a bit of a breather would be in store after it's recent run, but I am starting to feel like the US markets may just be about to capitulate.
I only have 2 shorts open on the ASX, everything else is in the US currently.
Strange time, really getting to the point where everything appears like it is ready to break, one way or the other. From the indices, to both gold and oil. Even wheat is getting back it's strong momentum, all looking like a very ominous sign globally.
I really think we are in unchartered waters and it's scary to think what might come to be. Might be MUCH MUCH worse than people expect IMO.
Global paradigm shift is about the only way I can explain it.
Yeh, that is very strange.
I would think a bit of a breather would be in store after it's recent run, but I am starting to feel like the US markets may just be about to capitulate.
I only have 2 shorts open on the ASX, everything else is in the US currently.
Strange time, really getting to the point where everything appears like it is ready to break, one way or the other. From the indices, to both gold and oil. Even wheat is getting back it's strong momentum, all looking like a very ominous sign globally.
I really think we are in unchartered waters and it's scary to think what might come to be. Might be MUCH MUCH worse than people expect IMO.
Global paradigm shift is about the only way I can explain it.
Re: XAO Analysis
Not hinting at direction or (insert word here)... You might also disagree with my placement of the trend lines and/or use of log scale. But here is a monthly chart back to '87...
Another interesting note that is volume on both the XAO and Dow over time... On the XAO it seems to be constant (?) over time 0.5B to 1B
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
for the DJIA the volume is expanding somewhat (possible association with increased volatility?) from .9B (2000) to 4B today. Chart here...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Might mean nothing, but...
Tim
Not hinting at direction or (insert word here)... You might also disagree with my placement of the trend lines and/or use of log scale. But here is a monthly chart back to '87...
Another interesting note that is volume on both the XAO and Dow over time... On the XAO it seems to be constant (?) over time 0.5B to 1B
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
for the DJIA the volume is expanding somewhat (possible association with increased volatility?) from .9B (2000) to 4B today. Chart here...
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=ohlc;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Might mean nothing, but...
Tim
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theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Re: XAO Analysis
On the contrary, I think it puts things into relatively clear perspective.
On the contrary, I think it puts things into relatively clear perspective.
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Re: XAO Analysis
Quite an interesting read. Where is that middle line ending in current values.
Looks around the 5000 mark.
Quite an interesting read. Where is that middle line ending in current values.
Looks around the 5000 mark.
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Whiskers
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Re: XAO Analysis
The proff just alerted me to the 'death of the oil (highjackers) speculators' bill passing the US congress.
Have'nt got the full gist of the bill yet, but on face value it should put an end to this spirialling highjacked oil price threatening to drive the world into recession.
In my opinion it has been that factor alone that has continued to put downward pressure on world stock markets. All the subprime credit crunch stuff has pretty well fhizzled out now, still without a recession, let alone the worst depression since... when ever it was.
The proff just alerted me to the 'death of the oil (highjackers) speculators' bill passing the US congress.
Have'nt got the full gist of the bill yet, but on face value it should put an end to this spirialling highjacked oil price threatening to drive the world into recession.
In my opinion it has been that factor alone that has continued to put downward pressure on world stock markets. All the subprime credit crunch stuff has pretty well fhizzled out now, still without a recession, let alone the worst depression since... when ever it was.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: XAO Analysis
Well since the announcement, oil has gone down by a whopping.... errrr... umm... it's gone up.
August crude @ > $141 now.
Credit crunch fizzled out????? Oh my!!! Have a closer look Whiskers, it has just transmogrified in a credit crisis.
Well since the announcement, oil has gone down by a whopping.... errrr... umm... it's gone up.
August crude @ > $141 now.
Credit crunch fizzled out????? Oh my!!! Have a closer look Whiskers, it has just transmogrified in a credit crisis.
Re: XAO Analysis
There are certainly some "if's" and but's" about this bill.
And is $139.64 now.