This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

XAO Technical Analysis

Jump to new
Re: XAO Analysis


More short term analysis :

Have a look at VIX today; it is ploughing through recent lows and relative to the news flow and where the index is, this is a relatively complacent market, but not at extremes of complacency... Bullish.

Equity Put/Call is in still in a medium term buy signal and US investor dudes and dudesses are putting a hell of a lot more weight on good news than bad news.

The punters still don't believe the real economy is in trouble.

We goin' higher.

Caveat: Unless the sky starts falling very soon. :
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Was speaking to MRC about this specific thing just a few seconds ago, before you posted this.

Major major breakdown on the VIX tonight.

Time for some hail mary plays? Thinking about it seriously...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I was thinking something more secular and hedonistic.

 
Re: XAO Analysis


Aahh., but they depend on those outstanding pillars of financial turpitude, the anylists... the trick is to call for earnings to be around say 60c... but they surprise to the upside and come in at 64c... great news, lets rally hard on that, things are not as bad as they seem.. ooops, yes the earnings in the corresponding period were 140c and yes they have more than halved, but shhh, thats not the way we look at things..
Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If you have a look on the DOW, we are coming very close to an inverted head and sholders neckline... if that breaks, hello XAO!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9985.htm

credit crises over then? looks like its all been a big wave 4...
Click to expand...


Back in NZ there seems to have been a lot of small waves... building up to a biggie???
Here's another to add to the list..
NZ... Investors in an AMP Capital Investor fund have foregone their quarterly payment as the global credit crisis fallout continues.

AMP Capital's Strategy Income Partnership fund posted a slightly negative 0.08 per cent return for the March quarter.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/dominionpost/4483355a6034.html

Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
Click to expand...

How do you know when its a Bear market? we get no good news.

How do you know when its Turned to a Bull market? we get no good news and rally.

Whats the diff?? Its what the punters are doing not what the fools are writing about. (don't flame me for calling Bull I'm talking the swings not the long trend. OK flame me is you would like)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
~~
Now the profit reporting season is about to start and you think all the bad news is priced in?
Please give me some good news -- I can't find any. I can't argue with your technicals, but the fundamentals tell me the trend is down, down, down.
Click to expand...

That is the question, has everything your refer to been built into the price already? I do not see anything in the rest of this post or subsequent posts that detracts from wayneL's view that it has.

A stock does not always fall on the release of bad news, especially if the news is already know to those who do most of the buying and selling volumes. As Kauri said if a figure of 60c return has been factored in and the result turns out to be 64c why would the price go down, notwithstanding it's a poor result compared to the return of a year ago. It's not that unusual for a company to announce a record profit result only to see the share price go down (usually makes for a good divi play) presumably because better results had already been factored in.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


cheers Kauri - I think the biggest worry here has to be the property market. Stats came out a while ago showing that the biggest sector here in terms of numbers employed is 'property' - not just builders & estate agents but when you include the associated services such as legal, planning, mortgage broking, cleaning, lawn mowing, letting agents etc etc etc we're talking more than agriculture & manufacturing. Immigration is down, rates are up & holding - the property slump is well under way...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
LOLOL
You've obviously not read the great bulk of my posts. ...
always nice to have another bear around.
PSLOL
Click to expand...

Oops. Sorry. You're right. Mea culpa. I read your latest as eager to dive back in as if nothing had happened.

Regardless of the US gloom & doom, my reading is mostly bear here too. The XAO, XJO, XFJ etc all making lower lows and well below the MA x-over. Only energy, health and materials relatively unscathed.

Even if this was normal cyclical, bear markets last say 10-14 months (and 1987 didn't hit bottom for 5 years) so we couldn't expect to avoid losing money with buy and hold until late this year and can't expect too many trends to follow either.

So what do you trade if you're not into short runs against the trend? Small miners? Penny dreadfuls?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
So what do you trade if you're not into short runs against the trend? Small miners? Penny dreadfuls?
Click to expand...

I believe the saying goes there is always a bull market somewhere. Ya just gotta look harder.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Santob said:
What just happened to the XAO ?? a 100pt spike?
Click to expand...

I think it's because miners have been going up and up forever lately (25% in a month for bhp), and finally broke their trend today. The RIO/BHP takeover was sweetened and made public yesterday, which is always a good idea to sell news that becomes public.

But im just guessing.

Aussie banks and miners started declining yesterday in fact. Which is a little odd because the US is sailing up just fine. Especially their banks were up 2-3% last night.

There was heavy selling of the spi right from the minute it opened, so it must have been some influence that started before the day began.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I have no idea what that spike was, looks like an error though. Too clean.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I think predictions are fun!

That last one week rally will end tonight. South for a few days now.

Vix/Trin/put-call ratio and bonds all suggest a turnaround imo.

Plus for the fundy's - bad B of A news.

Anyone else got an opinion on where the XAO will finish at the end of this week?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My Crystal ball is saying UP. Some particular aggressive buying today on the SPI. Not your usual local swingers playing the game today. Would not be surprised to see the highest weekly close in 10 Weeks come Friday.
How's that for a prediction?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

What are the two main types of market analysis and how can we combine them?
2
Replies
31
Views
4K
tech/a
Ryan's Trading Journal (F/A+T/A Strategy)
6 7 8
Replies
141
Views
34K
aus_trader
DangInvestor.com - Business Analysis and Value Investing Software
Replies
9
Views
5K
luutzu
Pixel's Picks - potential trend reversals off the bottom
2
Replies
22
Views
15K
pixel
The Beginner Trader's Manual Guide
Replies
9
Views
20K
commoyo
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...