Re: XAO Analysis
What was Wavepickers next date for a top or bottom? 21 March? Maybe a bottom. Would be good to see an update of the analysis. Doesn't seem to be going quite to plan, unless the plan was rejigged considering the market action and we have new dates for a high, or low ....
No EW analysis here, but for what its worth....the chart shows 3 Bollinger Bands set at 21, 34 and 55 day. 3 x BBs are used to show the volatility in different time frames, the RED being short term, BLUE intermediate and GREEN MAs longer term.
I have drawn in black dashed vertical lines as examples of how you might try to anticipate a bottom. Note that as the price commences a downswing the upper BBs push up but then curl over as a bottom is put in.
Also, you often see at least the RED and BLUE bottom BBs try to curl around and encapsulate the bottom's price action. You can see at the last black vertical line (on 23rd Jan)that the bottom BBs couldn't turn (curl up) because of the sheer volatility in the down swing. In fact the green band just kept traversing downward suggesting the possibility that a bottom wasn't in.
What am I looking for now? As of yesterday's price action the upper Blue and Red BBs have curled down suggestive of a possible bottom. The lower green band has curled up also suggesting a reprieve. I want to see the lower RED AND BLUE bands curl up in the next day or two to give confirmation to a temp bottom.
Note the huge distance between the upper and lower green bands. With such huge volatility, all the price action can do is simply claw back or retrace some of its lost ground.
Whats my call?? The longer term Stochastics could show some strength until 4th April. The price could climb to between 5500 and 5700, where some of the volatility will be removed. The bottom BBs will then be in a position (alignment ) to commence the next protracted downswing to 4500-4400.